NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Deep thunder has a hecs for the area Can you post it Ant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Deep thunder has a hecs for the area Doesn't seem likely. Would be nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Doesn't seem likely. Would be nice... Banding is key Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 25 minutes ago, Paragon said: April 1982 was also a lot more in other places- I believe Newark got 13" April 1915- I dont know how NYC only had 10" Philly had close to 20" The storm passed somewhat too far to the south and east to bring NYC into its heaviest snows. The storm's precipitation intensity was greatest over southeastern Pennsylvania. Select accumulations: Allentown: 5.0” Atlantic City: 6.0” Boston: 6.1” Bridgeport: 6.4” Cutchogue: 10.0” Harrisburg: Trace New London: 9.0” New York City: 10.0” Newark: 15.8” Philadelphia: 19.4” Portland: 8.6” Providence: 4.6” Wilmington: 12.0” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro has had SE tendencies this year with coastal lows and to be honest since the upgrade 2 winters ago inside 24-36. Its also generally been dry. I think both Upton and Taunton are weighing that idea. I posted the below in the NE thread: For the EURO followers, this model always seems to a. Be too far SE with precip and b. Dry. Last storm EURO had me at 4 inches and I received 9.5 Jan 5th was barely supposed to reach me and received 10.5 I have heard it has a se bias too. So NW CT, Hartford etc. I would not put too much weight into the EURO solution, or just bump the precip NW by a few miles. NWS and TWC have to be doing this given their forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This has a south-central NJ jackpot written all over it, a common theme of the 2010s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Deep thunder has a hecs for the areaPics? On mobile . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Doesn't seem likely. Would be nice... What site did you get that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: What model are you guys gunning for as most reliable? Me personally, I'm going with the HRDPS No way. Its been pretty bad as of late. TBH the NAM has been best recently but this event it has been wobbling all over the place. The UKMET has probably been the most consistent leading into the event by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: No way. Its been pretty bad as of late. TBH the NAM has been best recently but this event it has been wobbling all over the place. The UKMET has probably been the most consistent leading into the event by far. The HRDPS has been closest to my estimate of 7-10 inches for my area, which was my guess since late Sunday. But I can see what you mean. I also liked what the RGEM said this morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Don't forget that the Cobb Snow Method two days ago had 25"+ on the NAM for LGA, but 0" on the same GFS. They both have settled near 12" this morning. Again, what will be left when this is over. A 1958 style cleanup, looks unlikely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Any scientific reasoning or just the seasonal trends Because the only real difference I've seen is with the strength of the ULL, not the track itself. Sometimes a slight fluctuation can have major implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I wouldn't put much weight in IBMs model, but last night it showed not much of anything. At least it improved(understement of the year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Not a great model, but nice for entertainment purposes. And still snowing hard at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wave 1 only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not a great model, but nice for entertainment purposes. And still snowing hard at this point. We could only wish.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not a great model, but nice for entertainment purposes. And still snowing hard at this point. SREFs should be quite entertaining. Approaching 3" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Still only a watch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 How big of a cutoff are we looking at the shoreline? (< 3 miles) I saw that there would be less, but still quite a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: How big of a cutoff are we looking at the shoreline? (< 3 miles) I saw that there would be less, but still quite a lot. The NAM has almost all of SNJ as rain until late Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: SREFs should be quite entertaining. Approaching 3" LE Arws are really juiced up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Philly to Monmouth to psv's house jackpot. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM has almost all of SNJ as rain until late Wednesday afternoon. This would bust Mt. Holly's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 How’s Northern NJ looking? I could go for a lesser storm that doesn’t knock out my power thrice since March 2nd. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Will be interesting to see if the NYC Mayor closes NYC schools in lieu of what is on tap for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 32 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: SREFs should be quite entertaining. Approaching 3" LE The great April Fools Day blizzard of 1997 had 3”+ LEs in the jackpot zones of 2-2.5’. But that storm was VERY wet - warmer antecedent airmass and temps in the 50s throughout New England for several days in advance of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, sferic said: Will be interesting to see if the NYC Mayor closes NYC schools in lieu of what is on tap for tomorrow. Going to require a blizzard warning IMO. The past few storms were like the boy who cried wolf for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Don't think I've ever seen so many different snow maps from the media...some are showing higher amounts south due to more qpf, but some show much lower amounts in those same areas due to mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Going to require a blizzard warning IMO. The past few storms were like the boy who cried wolf for NYC. Well from a piece of the NWS they are saying it could be possible they issue it. Yes only the Jan 4th blizzard was warranted for the NYC schools to be closed. We will see what happens here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The dew points verified lower again this morning vs model forecasts. So it will be interesting to see what the 12z guidance does once these lower numbers are fed into the models. This first storm is toast, in fact I think the cutoff ends up South of Philly. You can already see a convergence zone setting up over Northern Delaware. Doesn't look like anything is currently falling Northeast of extreme SW NJ when you look at base radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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