kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I think playing it conservative is best given our past three storms, the fact that it's late March, and that anything over 6" in the city is historic post March 20. Playing conservative is fine but those are faulty reasons. This storm will be clearly colder than the other 3 at the coast and you can't just assume that it's going to be less than 6" due to climo because this is a historic pattern and to be honest, climo hasn't really come into play in the 2010s when looking at all the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don't know but I'm alot more bullish after the gfs and nam I'm saying 12-18 inches region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What is wrong with this model.. it has been poor this winter It's 6-12" areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Has the UKMET come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 For the people that get confused by some conflicting analysis, the best advice I could give you is too look at the models yourself. There's plenty of free sites out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ukie just rots southeast of AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Ukie just rots southeast of AC Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hr 18-60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That's another reason I'm a bit bullish on this one: the low's ramming against the confluence and crawling. We do well with those storms of they just get far north enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 When's the last time we had a snow producing system occlude off NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: When's the last time we had a snow producing system occlude off NJ? Boxing Day occluded either east of AC or just SE of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: When's the last time we had a snow producing system occlude off NJ? I don't believe it's happened since I moved here and that was for 2013-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Really like Upton's call for 5-11 right now for the city. A bit bullish but can still go either way, reasonably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Really like Upton's call for 5-11 right now for the city. A bit bullish but can still go either way, reasonably. My call is 12-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ukie is 30-40mm for most. Will come down to how much sleet and mixing takes place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, kingbaus said: My call is 12-18 2-20" with lolls to 24". Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2-20" with lolls to 24". Final call. I'm being serious here this is starting to look like a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2-20" with lolls to 24". Final call. You forgot the 0" lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, Rjay said: 2-20" with lolls to 24". Final call. 4 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: You forgot the 0" lollis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 0z NAM is hinting at some serious banding from 18z Wed - 0z Thursday for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, kingbaus said: I'm being serious here this is starting to look like a HECS I'm not saying it won't be. I have zero confidence in putting out a real forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, weatherbear5 said: You forgot the 0" lollis Central Park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, snywx said: 0z NAM is hinting at some serious banding for the interior from 18z Wed - 0z Thursday for the interior. The 12z NAM seems to be on it's own right now with the intense banding being that far NW but it would not shock me at all if it played out that way . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The 12z NAM seems to be on it's own right now with the intense banding being that far NW but it would not shock me at all if it played out that way . Euro & UK are also quiet snowy for the interior. Might be a case of the NAM being "special" but it could also be leading the way again. RGEM fwiw has been a complete disaster this year. I wouldn't put my money on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Euro is south for wave one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm hearing good things about the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wow Euro is a crush job!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 H48 surface LP slightly west versus H72 from last night's 0z run. Looks real good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 QPF/Temps/H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 S NJ jackpot on the Euro.. Weather modeling at its finest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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