stockmanjr Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: Am I missing something? The 12Z Euro and the 0Z NAM has surface temps in the upper 20's to 30 degrees during the height of the precipitation. Several degrees lower than our previous storms. I'm a bit confused as well. It's 37/28 on Tuesday and then 30/28 on Wednesday according to the last NWS update. We're not talking about huge warmth before so I'm confused about this sticking issue.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: If the temp is really 30 or below, I completely agree. And the Wed storm has to really produce. At 30 or below, i'll stick everywhere especially with good rates. But I'm not sold that we're at that point yet. If the Euro tonight is another bomb, it'll get me pretty much there. The 0z NAM was what I needed to see. I'm confident the Euro holds serve. Also think the GFS will trend wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gfs favors the coast for the heaviest but a solid hit areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The 0z NAM was what I needed to see. I'm confident the Euro holds serve. Also think the GFS will trend wetter. Gfs is wetter and colder than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS likes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, stockmanjr said: I'm a bit confused as well. It's 37/28 on Tuesday and then 30/28 on Wednesday according to the last NWS update. We're not talking about huge warmth before so I'm confused about this sticking issue.. This sticking issue has and always will be brought up by many people, obviously past storms this March have proven to warrant that issue. However, this storm will be much colder that all the past. 2-3 degrees will make a massive difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 So far NAM jackpots the interior, RGEM and GFS jackpot the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS anything with wave 1 into NYC ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: GFS likes the coast. They call it a coastal storm for a reason I guess if all goes right NYC could jackpot gfs has over a foot for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: GFS anything with wave 1 into NYC ? Negligible. Our hope down here IMO is what happens Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Euro nailed this storm a week out. Remember how it showed a coastal snowstorm as the last storm was happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The GFS has a great outcome for most here on Wed, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, jm1220 said: The GFS has a great outcome for most here on Wed, FWIW. Pretty much every model does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Toss the rgem also ? Yes, it’s been wildly erratic. Id go 50/50 Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I’d toss the GFS, it’s been too far SE like the German, which just came way NW. German looks like a carbon copy of the GFS. How has it performed this winter? It's been flipping around on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs barely has any mixing here in NYC All snow Doesn't look like any mixing from 12z Wednesday on on the GFS. Markedly colder than the NAM in the mid-levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The GGEM is meh CCB never really gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: German looks like a carbon copy of the GFS. How has it performed this winter? It's been flipping around on this storm. Icon is the worst model. I'd say a blend of Euro and gfs plus nam mixed you have the whole area from 8-12 easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It would be really nice if the heavy banding came in the evening to minimize the sun angle melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Ggem is a good model that catches on to systems when all models lose it. It happened 3 night's ago ggem was the only model to show a hit. Pay attention if ggem shows a hit for the weekend storm than it could be onto something. I'd go with nam-euro- and gfs blend they are all almost identical let's not forget uncle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GGEM is meh CCB never really gets going What is wrong with this model.. it has been poor this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Gravity Wave said: It would be really nice if the heavy banding came in the evening to minimize the sun angle melting. I'm also wary of models trending to showing better frontogenesis and banding over NJ rather than over NYC/the coast, but the Wed storm being a factor has to be worthwhile at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 21z SREF increase to 8-10 for the city, but the spread is very wide; a few members have under 4", a few have over 15". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The snow shouldn't have a problem sticking on Wednesday . I think alot of people are downplaying this threat. I think playing it conservative is best given our past three storms, the fact that it's late March, and that anything over 6" in the city is historic post March 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes, it’s been wildly erratic. Id go 50/50 Euro/NAM. I don't think you can toss any of the major models. All have been erratic this winter and some right down to the last second. A blend of all is the right play with more attention to the mesoscales as we go into tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SREF has 10 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I think playing it conservative is best given our past three storms, the fact that it's late March, and that anything over 6" in the city is historic post March 20. Playing conservative is fine but those are faulty reasons. This storm will be clearly colder than the other 3 at the coast and you can't just assume that it's going to be less than 6" due to climo because this is a historic pattern and to be honest, climo hasn't really come into play in the 2010s when looking at all the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don't know but I'm alot more bullish after the gfs and nam I'm saying 12-18 inches region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, allgame830 said: What is wrong with this model.. it has been poor this winter It's 6-12" areawide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Has the UKMET come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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