NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, kat5hurricane said: If NYC gets into the banding, 4-8 will be conservative if anything. Of course, most of that will come down to nowcasting. Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don't blame any met for going conservative on accums in NYC given the past few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Climo agrees wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM now has more precip tomorrow than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: I don't blame any met for going conservative on accums in NYC given the past few storms. The past 3 storms have no bearing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Below freezing each night and it'll be below freezing while it precipitates come on dude give it a rest I'm not gonna argue with you. The statement was that the ground was cold. The ground may be exposed to below freezing temps at night, but given the time of the year, it has been exposed to above freezing temps during the day. All I'm saying is it may not be as cold as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Perhaps but I think it's too difficult to pinpoint a ceiling or a floor at this point, this storm is going to have tons of moisture and colder air to work with than the previous storms. As is usually the case, it will come down to where the banding sets up so there will be a screw zone somewhere. However, I can understand why one would be conservative. This is pretty unprecedented for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Also the RGEM has been awful this year Perhaps. But I thoroughly look forward to seeing the total snowfall/QPF from the RGEM. Should be at the very least one to save on the desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: Perhaps. But I thoroughly look forward to seeing the total snowfall/QPF from the RGEM. Should be at the very least one to save on the desktop It’s been wilder than the NAM. Too bad as last year it schooled everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RGEM is stuck at 30hrs on TT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Climo agrees wholeheartedly. Climo? Have you paid attention to this month? 4 noreasters in 19 days. I've never even heard of that. That beats any history book although central park got screwed not this time in my opinion but places like Sussex county mahopac are close to 30-40 inches just this month add another 10 easily and respectively u got the whole years worth in MARCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” If the banding ends up over the area and the storm stalls and spins , the ceiling will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The track of the ULL is similar to the second storm, maybe a tick SE. That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. Whoever gets into the banding, even at the coast, is going to get big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: Climo? Have you laid attention to this month? 4 noreasters in 19 days. I've never even heard of that. That beats any history book although central park got screwed not this time in my opinion but places like Sussex county mahopac are close to 30-40 inches just this month add another 10 easily and respectively u got the whole years worth in MARCH Climo means nothing 4 noreasters in March ? 2 tropical systems hitting the northeast back to back years. Snowstorm in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said: That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. I got 4 inches of slush lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: The past 3 storms have no bearing on this one. Yes they do. I believe most models showed heavier snow accums than actually verified in NYC. You have to take into account the heat Island affect especially in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. That's incorrect in my.opinion cause I got videos of the building where I work it was 31 degrees during the height of the storm on the roof and the snow was accumulating no problem on the 23rd floor but when I came down it was white rain! It was defintely the temperature. It had to be it snowed hard at one point it was just too warm! I was there. I think i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes they do. I believe most models showed heavier snow accums than actually verified in NYC. You have to take into account the heat Island affect especially in March. No, they don't. And the heat island is mutually exclusive from those storms. It's always extant. I think what you mean to say is, "It's difficult to snow in March." That I can agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Thats arong in my.opinion cause I got videos of the building where I work it was 31 degrees during the height of the storm I got storm accumulating no problem on the 23rd floor but when I came down it was white rain! It was defi Italy the temperature. It snowed hard at one point it was just too warm! I was there You're thinking of the 1st storm. NYC never got into the heavy rates for the 2nd storm, it didn't accumulate because it was snowing lightly throughout most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Finally got the RGEM out to 48. Just looking at the precip, both the NAM (12k and 3k) and RGEM like the idea of a sweeping mega band. The orientation is however different between the two. NAM likes it SE to NW, RGEM more SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: No, they don't. And the heat island is mutually exclusive from those storms. It's always extant. I think what you mean to say is, "It's difficult to snow in March." That I can agree with. Especially in Manhattan and that's why I don't blame Mets for being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: You're thinking of the 1st storm. NYC never got into the heavy rates for the 2nd storm, it didn't accumulate because it was snowing lightly throughout most of the storm. Last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Have to agree. Sucks, but NYC really needs good snow rates and below freezing temps for much to happen there this time of year (I guess excluding NE Queens, parts of Staten Island, etc). It can happen, but the right conditions have to exist. A lousy CCB feature won't do it especially if it kinda dry slots over NYC/Long Island and hits interior NJ again, or it slides SE. Not saying this will happen (I'm intrigued about this FWIW), but keep in mind what can go wrong. The WAA from the second system will be hampered by the first wave, so we're relying on what the CCB can produce. The 9, 10" calls for Central Park are overblown IMO. I wouldn't go over 3-5" there unless models tonight really blow up the Wed storm and show a good CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Have to agree. Sucks, but NYC really needs good snow rates and below freezing temps for much to happen there this time of year (I guess excluding NE Queens, parts of Staten Island, etc). It can happen, but the right conditions have to exist. A lousy CCB feature won't do it especially if it kinda dry slots over NYC/Long Island and hits interior NJ again. Not saying this will happen (I'm intrigued about this FWIW), but keep in mind what can go wrong. The WAA from the second system will be hampered by the first wave, so we're relying on what the CCB can produce. The 9, 10" calls for Central Park are overblown IMO. I wouldn't go over 3-5" there unless models tonight really blow up the Wed storm and show a good CCB. The snow shouldn't have a problem sticking on Wednesday . I think alot of people are downplaying this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Am I missing something? The 12Z Euro and the 0Z NAM has surface temps in the upper 20's to 30 degrees during the height of the precipitation. Several degrees lower than our previous storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 GFS is west, CCB right on top of the City at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Gfs barely has any mixing here in NYC All snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The snow shouldn't have a problem sticking on Wednesday . I think alot of people are downplaying this threat. If the temp is really 30 or below, I completely agree. And the Wed storm has to really produce. At 30 or below, it'll stick everywhere especially with good rates. But I'm not sold that we're at that point yet. If the Euro tonight is another bomb, it'll get me pretty much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: The snow shouldn't have a problem sticking on Wednesday . I think alot of people are downplaying this threat. Agreed. I think Southern Brooklyn will have a much better chance of accumulating well than Manhattan. And it's going to be closer to the offshore banding. I'm 95% certain of this for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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