NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: i understand that, but you specifically said interior...the interior with those soundings is not gonna be 7:1..... i just snowed at 34 degrees and marginal 850 and accumulated 19" no problem On how much liquid? And the interior is more than just your backyard or Animals. I had 21” here on like 2.5” LE. That’s less than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence We will not know about the banding until the storm gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 One thing to consider with this storm in terms of ratios is that mid level temps were much colder, really only he surface was in question. We won't have that level of mid-level cold in this storm, at the very least near the beginning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: No it doesnt. Jan 2018 no problem sticking anywhere. Yeah, pointing out a blizzard isn't fair. Everyone here knows the problems Manhattan has accumulating. Obviously Northern Manhattan fares better with more vegetation, less subways, and elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: No it doesnt. Jan 2018 no problem sticking anywhere. Yeah. Just about every snowflake accumulated near the Battery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: On how much liquid? And the interior is more than just your backyard or Animals. I had 21” here on like 2.5” LE. That’s less than 10:1. Ridgewood had about 10" on similar LE. The differences as you get further north and west can be pretty astounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: We will not know about the banding until the storm gets cranking. Having been through the last 3, I still wouldn't go 3-6 or 4-8 just because it's the city. Gambler's fallacy. If it's as cold as the models say with that much precip, it'll stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The ground has been cold...dont forget it's been unusually cold I don't think we'll have problems sticking even in Manhattan if temps are below 32 like nam says. Nam snow map and rap remind me of Jan 2016 blizzard The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Yes but if you look at 500b, it’s over the interior. Bernie mentioned that in his periscope. He’s going 2-4” in NYC. That's a good call, this is largely a daytime main event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Yes but if you look at 500b, it’s over the interior. Bernie mentioned that in his periscope. He’s going 2-4” in NYC. I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, pointing out a blizzard isn't fair. Everyone here knows the problems Manhattan has accumulating. Obviously Northern Manhattan fares better with more vegetation, less subways, and elevation. The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. It does if you look at positive depth change maps instead of 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, larrye said: The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday. Below freezing each night and it'll be below freezing while it precipitates come on dude give it a rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine We didn't even need that. We would've done fine without subsidence. That lull killed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, larrye said: The temperature hit 46 degrees today in Central Park and 42 yesteday. And 20s tonight and 30s tomorrow. Plus a layer of sleet for the first few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I like Bernie but that's irresponsible. I'm not saying that doesn't verify, but guidance doesn't support that. It’s a little conservative, but not by a lot. Learn from the last 3 storms. This storm has a colder surface, but all kinds of warm layers aloft. The coast could lose a lot to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: That's a good call, this is largely a daytime main event too. That's too low This storm will feature banding which who knows where they will set up. H5 is going to close off and the storm will stall and rot. I think Upton has the right idea with 8-12 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine That big gaseous ball in the sky has other ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: It does if you look at positive depth change maps instead of 10:1 For solely the NAM, perhaps. But a lot of other guidance is colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Bernie and BW can go with whatever they want in NYC. Judging by the last few storms, it's hard to be bullish in NYC when the NWS busted big time on the last two. Nonetheless, my primary - though not only - concern would be surface temps. If temps are in the upper 20s to 30 (and sometimes those temps are even overdone), we can get the mid-level temps down, even if it through dynamic cooling. And sometimes the models underestimate that as well. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: It’s a little conservative, but not by a lot. Learn from the last 3 storms. This storm has a colder surface, but all kinds of warm layers aloft. The coast could lose a lot to sleet. Sleet will make the snow stick easier. Also , rgem is alot colder than the Nam. The nam is the warmest so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well one of the reasons is it was April 6, which is over 2 weeks later than this one, it was the Yankees opening day, which was delayed three days because of the snow, and NYC received a foot of snow, forget the so called official 9.6 bull sh1t in Central Park, and it was in the mid to upper 20's throughtout most of the storm. I received a foot and a half in Rockland. On April 6th that's memorable. If it happens March 21, still memorable but not nearly as. I was in Manhattan that day on a day off from school. Getting off the train at Penn station and crossing the street at 34th street the streets were covered, air was filled with swirling, blowing snow and we heard loud thunder. It was the real deal...nothing at all like the recent wet snows...and on April 6th. A repeat in April would shut the sun anglers up. Some LI photos here (apologies in advance that the outdated html kinda sucks): http://www.northshorewx.com/19820406.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: We didn't even need that. We would've done fine without subsidence. That lull killed us. The track of the ULL is similar to the second storm, maybe a tick SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: The only reason why we didn't accumulate the last 3 storms I'll tell you is because we were 33-35 degrees. I swear if we were below freezing we would have been fine And we missed the banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Sleet will make the snow stick easier. Also , rgem is alot colder than the Nam. The nam is the warmest so far. I agree that there won’t be a lot of white rain with this system, but conservative is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: And we missed the banding And you could easily miss it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence If NYC gets into the banding, 4-8 will be conservative if anything. Of course, most of that will come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Also the RGEM has been awful this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I agree that there won’t be a lot of white rain with this system, but conservative is the way to go. Yeah 5:1 and 6:1 is about the best one could hope for in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I guess we'll see I'm calling for 8 inches for central park right now if all models stay put I can understand why people don't want to pull the trigger, the writing was on the wall each storm for NYC this month the temps were in the 33-35 range the whole time you can't accumulate snow in midtown if it's not below freezing and it doesn't snow 35dbz at least. But this time is around we will have that (we should) long lasting storm and sleet to cover the somewhat warm ground. Plus below freezing surface temps all other levels will crash once the low starts cranking. I guess well see in 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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