MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 This is very close to a mecs for NYC Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Probably mostly white rain an sleet down this way. Got about a total of 3" past 3 storms. Any promise to this one? Way colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Those weenie maps are overdone, even for the interior, even with the insane amount of precip. 2” of liquid won’t yield anyone 20” of snow on the ground. Maybe 7:1 or 8:1, and it’s going to have some issues sticking to pavement even at 30 degrees. No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps. 0 z nam smokes my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem looks very good on black and white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I would still watch tomorrow afternoon. The 3K wants to get stuff in still. The HRRR is useless at this range but it does as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This is very close to a mecs for NYC Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm. I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This is very close to a mecs for NYC Surface isn't the problem but the 850s are for a short period of time. Is the Nam overdoing it ? Possible but this looks like a classic north east snowstorm. remember feb 2013...that little warm layer....effed us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Animal said: No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps. 0 z nam smokes my area. Only concern is that 10:1 is too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Those weenie maps are overdone, even for the interior, even with the insane amount of precip. 2” of liquid won’t yield anyone 20” of snow on the ground. Maybe 7:1 or 8:1, and it’s going to have some issues sticking to pavement even at 30 degrees. whats your reasoning on interior, ill take my area for example...16F tonight, high of 33 tomorrow, then 26 tomorrow night, then just up to freezing WED, then snow falls at 28F.....with 850s at -5+... i dont think the grounds gonna have a cooling issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less. I agree on that and it wouldn't shock me to see the city get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherlogix said: remember feb 2013...that little warm layer....effed us I don't remember that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 the RGEM is going to be a huge hit for the city and nassau Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem is still north with wave 1 and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I’m going with 4-8” in NYC, and it wouldn’t shock me if Central Park recorded less. I agree. Maybe more 3-6. Could easily be 2" or 8" but climo says <6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would still watch tomorrow afternoon. The 3K wants to get stuff in still. The HRRR is useless at this range but it does as well Yeah I think it’s one of those where we helucinate all afternoon that the radar is better than it actually is. Those sim radars are always more bullish than reality, but the accumulated precipitation panels are promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: I don't remember that storm you kidding me? E LI has 25" and we had sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 btw, RGEM just caved hard to the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The ground has been cold...dont forget it's been unusually cold I don't think we'll have problems sticking even in Manhattan if temps are below 32 like nam says. Nam snow map and rap remind me of Jan 2016 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 city hit hard on RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: btw, RGEM just caved hard to the nam huh? its significantly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Animal said: No concern in the higher terrain with sticking or temps. 0 z nam smokes my area. This has to be an all time March for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: The ground has been cold...dont forget it's been unusually cold I don't think we'll have problems sticking even in Manhattan if temps are below 32 like man says. Lol, Manhattan has trouble in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: whats your reasoning on interior, ill take my area for example...16F tonight, high of 33 tomorrow, then 26 tomorrow night, then just up to freezing WED, then snow falls at 28F.....with 850s at -5+... i dont think the grounds gonna have a cooling issue You have to remember that your backyard is different than most, however you still won’t accumulate like you would have a month ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Who is staying up for the 00z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 How many mm for NYC on RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem is colder than the Nam Some mixing for NYC but mostly all snow including wave 1 snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: You have to remember that your backyard is different than most, however you still won’t accumulate like you would have a month ago. i understand that, but you specifically said interior...the interior with those soundings is not gonna be 7:1..... i just snowed at 34 degrees and marginal 850 and accumulated 19" no problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Lol, Manhattan has trouble in January. No it doesnt. Jan 2018 no problem sticking anywhere. Wow at the rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence Welcome to 3 storms in a row lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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