MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Gefs is way better than the op Closer with low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 hours ago, jm1220 said: If there’s a high bringing cold air down, maybe there’s a chance down here. But there’s so much that has to go right that it’s pointless for me to get interested unless it’s still showing this a couple of days out. I couldn’t care less about another marginal/lousy surface air setup where coastal areas and the city are relying on 33-34 temps and paltry rates. Count me right out of that. Couldn’t care less either what any snow map shows for that. It’ll be a couple inches or less of slop that melts by late afternoon. Snowmaps are even more useless with this one than any of the others. Yet I guarantee that many will be posting them religiously when they show two feet of snow. Id lean towards the snow DEPTH maps in this situation and in any marginal event as they have done much better throughout the month of March over any 10 to 1 or to a lesser extent the Kuchera method maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: This storm can easily be suppressed if the PV and confluence to the north are too strong. Doesn't matter if it's Jan or March. 2014 had several suppressed March storms. Completely agree. While I dont think this ends up suppressed, it's plausible. Model guidance doesn't care what month it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I tend to agree with Goldberg. The pattern is not one that is consistent with those in which storms have typically been suppressed in March. Shorter wave lengths mean that teleconnection values that might be conducive to suppression in January or February are not necessarily conducive to suppression in March. The storm could well pass to our south, but the odds that Washington, DC would see more snow than New York City are probably about one-in-three if that high. If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recover for a storm to get far enough north to affect us. It would 100% be squashed south. Climo argues against what I just said so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 hours ago, White Gorilla said: That is what I always read before, so it really confused me Also in my opinion the PNA is much less of a factor this time of year because of significantly shorter wavelengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, JetsPens87 said: Also in my opinion the PNA is much less of a factor this time of year because of significantly shorter wavelengths. Yup. Time for @donsutherland1 to whip out his March PNA/NYC snowfall stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: Yup. Time for @donsutherland1 to whip out his March PNA/NYC snowfall stats. I believe I do actually recall Don posting something last year showing that the PNA is almost negligible in terms of snowfall this time of year, or at least much less of a factor than in Dec/Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recover enough for a storm to get far enough north to affect us. only the last run of the EURO was showing that extreme a scenario with the system missing completely south of the region- runs before the 12Z were showing a SECS - lets see what happens at 0Z....plus this is the time before the storm that the models tend to lose it for a few runs only to bring it back later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: only the last run of the EURO was showing that extreme a scenario with the system missing completely south of the region- runs before the 12Z were showing a SECS - lets see what happens at 0Z....plus this is the time before the storm that the models tend to lose it for a few runs only to bring it back later The Euro was backed up by its ensembles. The problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is way better than the op Closer with low 2 Boy those GEFS look really solid. Though I would prefer a one wound up low solution, there are ways that this can happen with a multi-wave solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro was backed up by its ensembles. Thr problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP. I dunno whatever they did to that model really scaled back it’s deadliness. And I certainly agree that even the EPS are really just a multi-variate solution of the OP solution at this point rather than a display of different perturbations of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Rjay said: The Euro was backed up by its ensembles. The problem I have with the EPS over the last 4 years is it almost always follows the OP. These EPS are not your Fathers EPS. I know a lot of mets that don’t even use the ensembles anymore. Personally I find them most useful for trends with blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 FWIW the 18z NAVGEM was in the suppressed camp too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: These EPS are not your Fathers EPS. I know a lot of mets that don’t even use the ensembles anymore. Personally I find them most useful for trends with blocking. Those mets should be shot into the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Rjay said: If that PV lobe is correctly modeled like the Euro shows, there's no way heights on the EC can recove for a storm to get far enough north to affect us. It would 100% be squashed south. Climo argues against what I just said so we'll see. My guess is that the ECMWF is overdoing the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 First time I'm seeing the name of the thread. I'm loving it, get a several days jump on the dismissive name. Rjay is pretty much 2 for 2 with this. It's a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My guess is that the ECMWF is overdoing the PV. I agree that it's probably overdoing the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Juliancolton said: Those mets should be shot into the sun Bernie Rayno is one of them. Chief met at accuweather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 43 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Bernie Rayno is one of them. Chief met at accuweather. And he completely dismisses ensemble modeling on principle? That seems wildly irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Nam has a good deal of precip coming in at 84 hours with surface temps below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam has a good deal of precip coming in at 84 hours with surface temps below freezing. It handles the s/w's in the southern stream much differently than the GFS. Theres the initial s/w which is the bowling ball that gets sheared out on the GFS and then another trailer wave behind it. The NAM seems to focus on that lead wave with the trailing wave catching up to and phasing into it. Meanwhile the GFS, as previously noted, runs the first wave out ahead and shears it out, allowing the trailer wave to become the basis for the next waves of LP to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The UMBC storm???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, tdp146 said: The UMBC storm???? I grew up 15 minutes from that school. Went to U of Maryland. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 South trend continues on the gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: South trend continues on the gfs? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Quite frankly, with so many players on the field we're not going to have much of a clue how everything is going to come together until Sunday, maybe even early next week. So many variables in this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 CMC and GFS flatter with both waves Not a good start to the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, snow1 said: South trend continues on the gfs? Meh it's only Saturday so the models can change but suppression is a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 hours ago, weatherbear5 said: Quite frankly, with so many players on the field we're not going to have much of a clue how everything is going to come together until Sunday, maybe even early next week. So many variables in this storm It seems like every snowstorm is like that. We never really have a handle on it until the day before. Maybe a handful of storms in history were forecasted a week out and came to frutation exactly how the models had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 6Z NAM = not a bad look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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