jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Getting a little confused which was the better NAM today 12z or 18z? To me they were about the same. The first wave has been consistently more impressive but warmer, ie sleet on the NAM but the second less impressive. The Euro makes the second wave more impressive and dampens the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: My friend took 6 hours to get from Forest Hills to Bellmore. Problem is since it wasnt forecast everyone went to work or drove instead of taking the LIRR. I was working a non weather job at that time and was lucky to have taken that Friday as a holiday by chance I don't remember much advance notice about this storm except that, working in a school system in NNJ it was obvious things were getting bad and we kept waiting for word of early dismissal, but the super was down in AC at a conference and it apparently wasn't as bad down there, so people started leaving on their own ( we don't teach classes in my dept ) and I just remember the supervisor running after people threatening them and they were telling her to stuff it. I think we had 14 inches and it was the biggest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It’s going to take a lot of time for the air to saturate. There is very dry air right now and may cut down the accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 As for my thoughts on this, I honestly don’t know what to think. This can be very nice for everyone if the Euro outcome happens, and we have a good upper air evolution with the second wave. Even down here on the immediate coast it would probably be warning level because of the cold airmass. The NAM would be a sleetfest for at least the city and coast, and hopefully as the second wave comes in the heights crash enough to turn all to snow for a while. The GFS was overall lousy though and gives pause. I’m modestly optimistic we all do well, but I can see how it goes to crap with a weak or too warm first wave and the second doesn’t get going soon enough. Again very challenging and tough for forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, seanick said: i've got the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, seanick said: Lock it up. DC gets nothing as is the new usual. In all seriousness the RAP always seems to provide an armeggedon solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: i've got the under Seriously, no way we are seeing those numbers. 6 inches would be impressive for this time of year IMHO, 10 would be memorable; I don't think the April 82 storm topped 10 IMBY. And people still talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, seanick said: Oh my goodness. I thought at first that was a 24 hour forecast for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Such pretty colors and I'm under the pink/lavender LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: i've got the under 6 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Seriously, no way we are seeing those numbers. 6 inches would be impressive for this time of year IMHO, 10 would be memorable; I don't think the April 82 storm topped 10 IMBY. And people still talk about it. Actually rap was right for the last storm it was not biting on those big totals for the city. I think nyc is looking good. Kinda reminds me of January 23, 2016 but a smaller scale obviously. Snowgoose or any red taggers any chance we get blizzard conditions as the low cranks Wednesday afternoon? kinda look the same lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 LMAO what's insane is the RAP still has NYC under a deformation band at the end of its run. It really amps up the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Seriously, no way we are seeing those numbers. 6 inches would be impressive for this time of year IMHO, 10 would be memorable; I don't think the April 82 storm topped 10 IMBY. And people still talk about it. Well one of the reasons is it was April 6, which is over 2 weeks later than this one, it was the Yankees opening day, which was delayed three days because of the snow, and NYC received a foot of snow, forget the so called official 9.6 bull sh1t in Central Park, and it was in the mid to upper 20's throughtout most of the storm. I received a foot and a half in Rockland. On April 6th that's memorable. If it happens March 21, still memorable but not nearly as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: Actually rap was right for the last storm it was not biting on those big totals for the city. I think nyc is looking good. Kinda reminds me of January 23, 2016 but a smaller scale obviously. Snowgoose or any red taggers any chance we get blizzard conditions as the low cranks Wednesday afternoon? that has 2' for nassau county - I will bet you anything on earth its incorrect...probably inflated by 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM is less amped with the 1st wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Well one of the reasons is it was April 6, which is over 2 weeks later than this one, it was the Yankees opening day, which was delayed three days because of the snow, and NYC received a foot of snow, forget the so called official 9.6 bull sh1t in Central Park, and it was in the mid to upper 20's throughtout most of the storm. I received a foot and a half in Rockland. On April 6th that's memorable. If it happens March 21, still memorable but not nearly as. Seemed like the apocalypse at the time....all the flounder in Raritan Bay were stunned by the storm and swam into the mouth of the Raritan River to find shallow waters. Old timers still talk about it; catching flounder off Perth Amboy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: NAM is less amped with the 1st wave. Does less amped with the 1st wave have a direct correlation to the 2nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Exciting as the RAP might be, some perspective is needed before taking what appears to be the most extreme solution seriously: NYC's last 4" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/20-21/2015 4.5" NYC's last 5" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/22/1998 5.0" NYC's last 6" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 4/6/1982 9.6" NYC's last 10" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/20-21/1958 11.8" NYC has no 12" or greater snowstorms on record 3/20 or later. One will need a strong consensus among the guidance before having confidence in the kind of historic outcome depicted on the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 OT, but if you have a radar app check out the storm that just hit Jacksonville AL. One of the strongest deep couplets and best defined TDS you’ll ever see. Big tornado on the ground right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Exciting as the RAP might be, some perspective is needed before taking what appears to be the most extreme solution seriously: NYC's last 4" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/20-21/2015 4.5" NYC's last 5" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/22/1998 5.0" NYC's last 6" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 4/6/1982 9.6" NYC's last 10" or greater snowstorm 3/20 or later: 3/20-21/1958 11.8" NYC has no 12" or greater snowstorms on record 3/20 or later. One will need a strong consensus among the guidance before having confidence in the kind of historic outcome depicted on the RAP. There was a very cold April Snowstorm in April 2003 or April 2004 that gave several inches too I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Seemed like the apocalypse at the time....all the flounder in Raritan Bay were stunned by the storm and swam into the mouth of the Raritan River to find shallow waters. Old timers still talk about it; catching flounder off Perth Amboy. That is interesting about Raritan Bay. I've seen plenty of April snows in Orange County and a couple that had as much or more snow but the whole combination of that storm, wind , temperatures and the wide area it covered was pretty memorable. Plus the N&W suburbs got 2-4 inches three days later. I think the temperature in Manhattan the morning after got down to 19 or 21, if Uncle W, Don or Bluewave are on they could probably give the exact low on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Surface low in basically the same spot, precip certainly well south in comparison to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM ugly...cancel storm #1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: There was a very cold April Snowstorm in April 2003 or April 2004 that gave several inches too I think The April 7-8, 2003 snowstorm brought 4.0" snow to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: There was a very cold April Snowstorm in April 2003 or April 2004 that gave several inches too I think It was in 2003 and it was 4-6 inches and snowed out opening day at Yankee stadium, just like the April 6, 1982 storm did. They did clear out the stadium and play the next day with the rooftops on the apartment buildings overhanging the stadium still snow-covered in the game time temperature 33°. Charlie Rose who did the Yankee games on radio then started off the broadcast with this line "It's a beautiful day for baseball, somewhere in the world certainly not here today". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, sferic said: There was a very cold April Snowstorm in April 2003 or April 2004 that gave several inches too I think Had 6.0" here April 7th 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’ll be thrilled if I have 3-4” on my lawn for a few hours given the other storms this month. This situation is obviously still in flux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, doncat said: Had 6.0" here April 7th 2003. I had 7-8” that storm, and it all fell mid day. We can accumulate here as well as anyone late season when conditions and rates are right. It pounded here for a good 4-5 hours, and the jackpot area happened to be the I-78 corridor to the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It seems the great storms we love always give and take right up to game time? Sure the 00z nam might not look good but the way there things go the 00z Euro and 6z NAM will bring it back..they always do Bet on IT!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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