NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GEFS cut down a bit. Expected from goofus 12z top 18z bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 18Z runs would essentially be a pair of goose eggs. Light snow falling during the day that wouldn't accumulate. Ouch. I hope things are not slipping away last second. I.e. over correction north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: GEFS cut down a bit. Expected from goofus 12z top 18z bottom Seems to have only cut down N of NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: Seems to have only cut down N of NYC/LI Yea not as bad as I thought. I honestly don’t think we will get a good handle on Wednesday till the 6z runs. Just too complex of a set up in a complex March (and winter for that matter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 From the NE forum: Btv wrf cut totals in HALF not sure about that model. hopefully an 18z model burp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 On May 9th 1977 NYC tied its latest trace for snow; I know because I was in a Meteorology course in College looking out the window. 25 miles north of the city with temps hovering at 32-33 degrees over a foot accumulated..on ashphalt, cement everything. That date May 9th is 7 weeks from now. Persistence overcome resistance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: From the NE forum: Btv wrf cut totals in HALF not sure about that model. hopefully an 18z model burp. For where? Could have been for New England only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For where? Could have been for New England only. exactly. still 1"+ QPF in the city with a 2" jackpot between NYC and TTN which gets it from both rounds. https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I swear I hear about a new model everyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I swear I hear about a new model everyday As someone from Wright Weather observed a million years ago, "we're all looking at the wrong kind of "models""...especially at 2am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I do believe that someone sees 1.5 LE but I think that those with most LE see a lot of mixing, mostly SN/PL. The frontogenic forcing with this event will not cause nearly as impressive of a CCB as the last event. I think there's a 1-1.5 in/hr ceiling with this event. There's probably going to be a lot of slop with temps around 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: exactly. still 1"+ QPF in the city with a 2" jackpot between NYC and TTN which gets it from both rounds. https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Is this model any good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I swear I hear about a new model everyday Plenty of experimental models out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I swear I hear about a new model everyday there is always a new model out there that will fulfill a weenies fantasy if the old standbys say no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 We have a vendor thread. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Is this model any good? doubtful it's much better or worse than any other hi-res model out there. it's been inconsistent run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 SREF is going to be very wet ( precip wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hopefully this happens again tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Hopefully this happens again tomorrow... I drove down to a Philly that day. Stand still in the NJ turnpike... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: SREF is going to be very wet ( precip wise) Images? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Images? He is just guessing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, weatherlogix said: I drove down to a Philly that day. Stand still in the NJ turnpike... My friend took 6 hours to get from Forest Hills to Bellmore. Problem is since it wasnt forecast everyone went to work or drove instead of taking the LIRR. I was working a non weather job at that time and was lucky to have taken that Friday as a holiday by chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: My friend took 6 hours to get from Forest Hills to Bellmore. Problem is since it wasnt forecast everyone went to work or drove instead of taking the LIRR. I was working a non weather job at that time and was lucky to have taken that Friday as a holiday by chance Funny, I lived in Forest Hills at the time and it was the starting point of my journey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: He is just guessing.... Nope Arws and Nmbs are wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/18/2018 at 7:56 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Larrye , my post yesterday said that it was way too early to call this storm either way. I understand that there are many things that need to be taken into consideration and I am not attacking you or what you wrote in any way. That said yesterday you posted " Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No." so my question is would this still be your thought or do yesterday slight trends or the overnight guidance come into play ? I still think this could go either way there is still lots of time but we do have something to track . Looks like you may have been right after all :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nope Arws and Nmbs are wet Yeah that’s almost always a SREF trend tipoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, larrye said: Looks like you may have been right after all :-). Larrye ,thanx but this has not happened yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Getting a little confused which was the better NAM today 12z or 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I’m removing the CrankyWx/DT posts. Please put them in the vendor thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, sferic said: Getting a little confused which was the better NAM today 12z or 18z? Definitely 18z, the only bad model run from the 18z was gfs and icon which are both the most inconsistent models... especially icon. I wouldn’t worry about it. She’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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