MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The GFS did cut back by quite a bit from 12z. Typical gfs most likely Mesos have been doing better than the globals this year. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 You have a Euro/Ukie/Nam combo, these shifts are just noise imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Typical gfs most likely Mesos have been doing better than the globals this year. We shall see. The GEFS will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: You have a Euro/Ukie/Nam combo, these shifts are just noise imo. I certainly hope so, hopefully it won't be a correction south in the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: Gfs def cut back, why can’t we ever get a consensus Gfs sucks and is all alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 To many people on here take every model run like its gospel, fluctuations are normal or what we usually refer to as "noise". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: You have a Euro/Ukie/Nam combo, these shifts are just noise imo. RGEM too. When EURO/UKMET/NAM/RGEM agree on a major snowfall, I wouldn't worry too much about a few other models showing less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: The GEFS will be interesting. Well I would suspect they will be further NW... that GFS OP run is just garbage... with the UKIE/EURO/NAM lock step that is a deadly combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 the small trends mentioned above leads to our lead SW escaping a bit, no biggie, the trend to be admired is our orientation...MUCH better once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 convection, y’all. we’ll know 12-24h in advance. expect surprises, enjoy them even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: convection, y’all. we’ll know 12-24h in advance. expect surprises, enjoy them even. if i got paid for every time models overamped eastern convection, pulling our best dynamics with it, id be rich...usually its the cause for our double barrel looks in this model range, never pans out imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS cut way back...NAM 3k cut way back....Nam 12K has mega sleet then snows. Looking like Mt Holly may have jumped the gun on the big amounts.....its so bad that these models are so inconsistent virtually every storm...now we wait for tonights run and even then it will take until tomorrow afternoon to have an idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Tomorrow is the wild card really, looks like Wed (wave 2 is a good bet), if we can get 2-4/3-6 from tomorrow, around a foot total will not be hard to achieve. If we get zilch tomorrow, an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RPM and Deep Thunder are in the meh camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: This will probably come right down to the wire close to nowcast time like most other events this year. I feel bad for anyone that has to put out exact numbers much before the 12z runs tomorrow. exactly. i hated having to put out numbers today when the range is realistically 0-18”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs sucks and is all alone Yep 18z goofus at it again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 looks better than the previous 3 runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 lol...its not model noise since the models have flipped virtually every run. You guys know full well it would be a madhouse if the nam and gfs confirmed euro totals. The fact is that alot is up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: In totality, this March has probably been one of the most challenging forecast months in the 2010's for our area. I couldn’t agree more. I have been really trying to think this one through before posting my final thoughts. I do like the available cold and potential after peak insulation for wave two for the city. My current thinking is this will be the biggest event for March in the Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Weather Underground on my phone is saying 13 inches in Toms River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Don’t be surprised if models tick a bit East tonight. I really wouldn’t worry unless they go back to showing a complete whiff, which I think is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 39 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: RPM and Deep Thunder are in the meh camp. How meh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18z NAVGEM is a big hit for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Tomorrow is Spring; it will snow in most places whether 1-3, 2-4 6-12 or more it's going to be wintry. I am looking forward to it and hopefully Saturday too ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAVGEM is a big hit for wave 2 12z was better imo...a small step back this run, not much changed for coast, but those in far NE pa and a tad further whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 18z NAVGEM is a big hit for wave 2 18z GGEM bumped up a bit too. Not as big as NAVGEM but improved over 12z. So far only GFS, 3kMAN, ICON, Deep Thunder and RPM took a turn for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: 18z GGEM bumped up a bit too. Not as big as NAVGEM but improved over 12z. So far only GFS, 3kMAN, ICON, Deep Thunder and RPM took a turn for the worse. if you look at mid/upper levels and understand why the gfs evolved as it did, it was actually an improvement where it matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I know I asked this earlier, but are there any updates on the convection potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: if you look at mid/upper levels and understand why the gfs evolved as it did, it was actually an improvement where it matter Trough orientation was better. It argued for an even better solution then at 12z. Most likely a burp run. We'll see if the GEFS confirms my thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: How meh? 18Z runs would essentially be a pair of goose eggs. Light snow falling during the day that wouldn't accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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