stockmanjr Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The Meadowbrook parkway was closed early in the evening on 1/27/04 because that storm started as sleet and there were tons of accidents I live in Stuy Town and that storm forgetting which one with a ton of sleet took down a number of trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: A big reason the NAM might have that warm layer late in round 1 and for early round 2 is because it’s so far north and aggressive with wave 1. I’m not sure I buy that idea or not. If it’s correct there are going to be plenty of shocked people tomorrow in the area Ehh I don't know about that. Just seems as though the Nam is more aggressive with warm mid levels in general. Yesterdays 18Z Nam did not have wave 1 impacting us and still had a brief period of mix for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 23 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: Can you post the pivotal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: Ehh I don't know about that. Just seems as though the Nam is more aggressive with warm mid levels in general. Yesterdays 18Z Nam did not have wave 1 impacting us and still had a brief period of mix for wave 2 Is wave 2 too weak overall to allow for the midlevels to cool. I would think with that track the most places would turn to heavy snow after a period of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Don't poo poo impacts of sleet. I drove to news 12 in the thunder sleet the other week from exit 98. Saw 12 vehicles wrecked on the parkway and it was absolutely terrifying. I frankly think it is quite dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is the frame which captures the most northern extent of wave 1 of the 18Z rgem. Not too far away from the NAM and a slight northern adjustment vs 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ace said: This is the frame which captures the most northern extent of wave 1 of the 18Z rgem. Not too far away from the NAM and a slight northern adjustment vs 12Z Yeah that won’t take a huge error to be more north and typically this sort of setup verifies north of expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ace said: This is the frame which captures the most northern extent of wave 1 of the 18Z rgem. Not too far away from the NAM and a slight northern adjustment vs 12Z Hours 42-48 looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here's 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Is wave 2 too weak overall to allow for the midlevels to cool. I would think with that track the most places would turn to heavy snow after a period of sleet Yeah I would agree with you. Wave 2 should be strong enough to change most areas to snow quickly as it gets going. Warm layer is shallow, but it definitely should be considered and monitored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM ROUND 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: RGEM ROUND 2 Very little Sleet, which is good for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Rgem is all snow for the area with wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Rgem is all snow for the area with wave 1 It doesn’t come as far north but even if it did come another 60 Miles up it would only be sleet. Not FZRA or RA as the NAM shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 ICON went way south with both waves... weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k NAM was also south. I hope this is not a late south correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lmao the 18Z HRRRX is crazy. Take a look of it on Tropical Tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, mikem81 said: ICON went way south with both waves... weird yeah, WAY south haha. still think Euro prob has the best handle of this very complex system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: 3k NAM was also south. I hope this is not a late south correction. The 3Km NAM has been awful this winter. I would be more concerned at this point this comes north/west than flatter. I guess I maybe shouldn’t have ever bailed on my feelings the first wave was going to come way north either the way it’s looking now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM came north so thats good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This thing seems to be trending SE. Trenton ENE cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like it’s trending north a bit. Poughkeepsie might get in on some of the good action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: This thing seems to be trending SE. Trenton ENE cutoff. Just now, Drz1111 said: Looks like it’s trending north a bit. Poughkeepsie might get in on some of the good action. Which one is it??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: Which one is it??? LOL I was just going to post what you just wrote ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: How’s this thing trending southbecause icon the worst model of all time went south. Come on man this should be deleted immediately! Agree. As I mentioned earlier, I think having 2 sizeable waves within a day of each other is likely going to cause lots of model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: This thing seems to be trending SE. Trenton ENE cutoff. What ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The GFS did cut back by quite a bit from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs def cut back, why can’t we ever get a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, sferic said: LOL I was just going to post what you just wrote ! Might be some confusion with regards to there being two waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 lol good luck forecasting that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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