kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh please with this ice storm narrative. Sleet is fine and your not getting any significant icing in this setup. Yeah, this is a sleet/snow setup not a freezing rain setup and a whole crapload of snow and sleet. I don't want to get too excited because we in the immediate NYC have had 3 gut wrenching near misses but this one looks like the real deal for us, more cold air to work with this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, friedmators said: sleet makes a nice base coat for accumulations after Agreed. I could go for all sleet, everything covered till April. Pretty much guaranteed snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 12 + on the Nam for NYC Sleet and snow lol on TT standard maps..pivotal makes more sense since it at least can differentiate between SN and IP looks like a wallop of sleet followed by a nice little snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, friedmators said: on TT standard maps..pivotal makes more sense since it at least can differentiate between SN and IP looks like a wallop of sleet followed by a nice little snowstorm Can you post the pivotal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: 12 + on the Nam for NYC Sleet and snow lol Have to look at soundings to see how long the warm layer persists on the Nam. A couple of hours could be big if that's when the max intensity happens. But verbatim, yeah, that's a scalping from +PL and then heavy snow once the CCB takes over. Other models though are more focused on wave 2 and don't bring wave 1 this far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Shallow warm layer on the Nam for tomorrow afternoon with temps in the upper 20's and lower 30's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What is the potential if Wave 1 AND Wave 2 impact NYC to its full potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: can't really use 10- to 1 maps for this especially south-some of that is sleet which is a 3-1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: This map is fairly useless because sleet doesn't accumulated a 10 to 1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still a metric ton of frozen QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: Plus a few inches of sleet on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Actually it's not useless at all Temps will be cold so everything will accumulate. once we clear out the "sneaky warm tongues" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, mikem81 said: 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Plus a few inches of sleet on top of that. well below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Actually it's not useless at all Temps will be cold so everything will accumulate. sleet does not accumulate at 10-1 ratios-you have to chop alot of those #'s in half or even 3/4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sleet accumulates at 3:1 ratios. 1" of water=3" of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k isn't impressive at all with rd 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Actually it's not useless at all Temps will be cold so everything will accumulate. But if half is snow and half sleet you get a foot not 20". It won't all be 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3km is a lot worse overall, low is way SE so by the time it gets its act together it's scooting away. Barely an inch of LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Gravity Wave said: 3km is a lot worse overall, low is way SE so by the time it gets its act together it's scooting away. Barely an inch of LE. there's only so many times you can integrate in this setup before you see weird ****...enhance...enhance..not saying its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Gravity Wave said: 3km is a lot worse overall, low is way SE so by the time it gets its act together it's scooting away. Barely an inch of LE. In terms of storm organization it's on an island right now, so I'm more worried about temp profiles for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: In terms of storm organization it's on an island right now, so I'm more worried about temp profiles for the time being. Agree but the Nam is the warmest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: In terms of storm organization it's on an island right now, so I'm more worried about temp profiles for the time being. Agreed, much rather have the 12km on board than vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Agree but the Nam is the warmest. Problem is, it might be more accurate. It's purpose is for the finer details. If I'm not mistaken it led the way in seeing the warm nose for last March's slizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Problem is, it might be more accurate. It's purpose is for the finer details. If I'm not mistaken it led the way in seeing the warm nose for last March's slizzard. A big reason the NAM might have that warm layer late in round 1 and for early round 2 is because it’s so far north and aggressive with wave 1. I’m not sure I buy that idea or not. If it’s correct there are going to be plenty of shocked people tomorrow in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Don't poo poo impacts of sleet. I drove to news 12 in the thunder sleet the other week from exit 98. Saw 12 vehicles wrecked on the parkway and it was absolutely terrifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Big Jims Videos said: Don't poo poo impacts of sleet. I drove to news 12 in the thunder sleet the other week from exit 98. Saw 12 vehicles wrecked on the parkway and it was absolutely terrifying. The Meadowbrook parkway was closed early in the evening on 1/27/04 because that storm started as sleet and there were tons of accidents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The NAM ptypes are so clueless tomorrow afternoon. There is no chance it’s raining with a 36/15 spread. Even if this comes way north and we have an 060-070 wind it would be sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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