EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: n better than 06Z but a lot of what falls is light/mod and you wouldn't stack it up. 2nd low ends up favoring coastal NE and the Cape. Thanks. Still a model split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah even I figured out that much I'm trying to get an idea of if the precip is going to make it north of the immediate metro when that might happen. If I can get home by ~6pm or so will travel conditions still be reasonable or will it start getting dicey by then. It's just about which car I use tomorrow. The nam has accumulating snow all afternoon, most other models don't. It could be over by 6pm or just getting started....Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well that's not what I wanted to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well that's not what I wanted to hear... Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. Thank you! That pretty much is what I was thinking as well but the confirmation is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. What do you see as best case accumulations for the city. Your posts are more on the conservative (and unfortunately accurate side), but would love to know if you think we have a shot at seeing 6 inches on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Canadian operational is more South and east compared to the american models but is still 6"+ South of I78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 CAnadian not really digging the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 UKIE looks good. Cant tell on temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The UKIE is probably further north than the NAM tomorrow but it’s not any huge amounts. Wave 2 looks pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 THE CMC is NOT so bad for NYC. The 1 inch liquid line is literally 20 miles south of the south shore and SI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Animal said: CAnadian not really digging the storm. The RGEM was fairly flat at 48 so I wasn’t surprised to see the GGEM flat as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Add navgem to that list. Looks tucky and plenty of precipitation. Onto the euro...anyone seen the GEFS? Care to share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, mikem81 said: THE CMC is NOT so bad for NYC. The 1 inch liquid line is literally 20 miles south of the south shore and SI... I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here. I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here. I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs Luckily the GEPS are much better and extend precipitation well into Monticello area, safe to toss ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS is saying quite a bit for S NJ. Right where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z UKMET, and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: Luckily the GEPS are much better and extend precipitation well into Monticello area, safe to toss ggem? it's always a safe bet to toss the GGEM regardless, and even more so when it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 really worried about dry air. WRF is hinting at difficulties getting snow north of Mason Dixon line -- its like it hits a wall from 30hrs-48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The fact that the 00z ECMWF and 12z UKMET came really far NW for the second wave really increases my confidence that the 12z NAM could be correct for wave 2. I still think wave 1 is mostly a miss unless you live South of 195 in NJ or South of 78 in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here. I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs Why are you correcting him? He said that the cutoff was 20 miles south of Staten Island, you didn't need to draw the black line to show where the cutoff line is. Besides, the CMC was close to a big hit for NYC at least, so it really wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro will likely match the Ukmet. GGEM is an outlier and should be discounted. Watches will probably go up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Dino said: really worried about dry air. WRF is hinting at difficulties getting snow north of Mason Dixon line -- its like it hits a wall from 30hrs-48hrs The main show comes hours 54-66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Dino said: really worried about dry air. WRF is hinting at difficulties getting snow north of Mason Dixon line -- its like it hits a wall from 30hrs-48hrs Some of our biggest snowstorms battled dry air for the first 12 hours or so. If it wasn't for that cold, dry air to the North, this would likely be mostly rain for the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, kat5hurricane said: Why are you correcting him? He said that the cutoff was 20 miles south of Staten Island, you didn't need to draw the black line to show where the cutoff line is. Besides, the CMC was close to a big hit, at least for NYC, so it really wasn't that bad. Because that 0.5" that it shows for NYC is probably bogus. That run was not as good for NYC as some people make it out to be. Remember 2/6/10, where SI and Monmouth got buried but Central Park barely hit advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro will likely match the Ukmet. GGEM is an outlier and should be discounted. Watches will probably go up soon. The GGEM is a joke. It fits right in with the JMA and CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z UKMET, almost all snow for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Because that 0.5" that it shows for NYC is probably bogus. That run was not as good for NYC as some people make it out to be. Remember 2/6/10, where SI and Monmouth got buried but Central Park barely hit advisory criteria. Oh I agree, moderate QPF won't get it done, but it is close to something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z UKMET, almost all snow for this area. Lit. So this is the biggest hit of them all? I can’t see the panels but the precip map looks juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Winter doesn't want to end on the GFS Insane pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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