romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map It’s been pretty spot on for our marginal events March this year. Even when the 3k NAM was spitting out 1foot+ totals on 10:1 maps for the 5 boroughs the snow depth map was giving a more realistic 2-4 3-6. Trust me I don’t like using it but we kind of have no choice for March/April events at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It's more accurate in this case IMO It has nailed the (lack of) accumulating snow in Manhattan for the last 3 systems. It actually has overdone totals during those systems. This would have been such an incredible stretch if we were in January or February, instead we've had these awesome systems that just don't stick to anything in the city. The last 2 storms both had periods where the snow started to stick for a brief period, and then washed off within an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 First wave is still mostly a miss on the 12z GFS, trough looks good for wave 2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. If we’d been using that map this March we would all have gone through a lot less disappointment. Missing on 2-4 or 3-6 events doesn’t hit you as hard as seeing nada from 6-12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z GFS is still too progressive with the trough for my taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still looks like a decent hit on the 12z GFS for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs is similar to the nam through 12z Wednesday. Much closer to the coast and alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. It depends on location. For coastal CT it has been way too low the past two storms. However I believe it has been more accurate for LI and the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z GFS is still too progressive with the trough for my taste the jet streak is still back in southern Georgia - would be tremendous lift up along the coast there. it's a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS looks like huge hit for NYC area. Precip wise. 850 look colder than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just checking in after three days off the grid (and sitting in EWR now): Now it’s going to precipitate? I noticed this on 1010 WINS pushing this storm while on my way here. What’s the timeline for our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: the jet streak is still back in southern Georgia - would be tremendous lift up along the coast there. it's a huge hit. I see what you're saying, it closes off in the perfect location. It's a really close call for the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 My first snowfall map for this event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This ends up better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... This had to be about 25 years ago, but 1010 wins was predicting three inches of snow. A person called into the station and said we have more than three inches of snow on the roads right now. I was in school at that point, so I didn't have time to listen after that, but it was still hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That's not a bad look for the gfs at all, really curious to see what happens with wave 1 though. Get ready for more tree damage interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My first snowfall map for this event: You think heavy snow is getting that far north and West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That's not a bad look for the gfs at all, really curious to see what happens with wave 1 though. Get ready for more tree damage interior areas. No, won't be nearly as heavy and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs crushes South Jersey and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My first snowfall map for this event: Love the map. I agree except for coastal CT, would drop the pink to the coast. Except the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... Always even going back to the 1970s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS Is much colder and a monster hit with wave 2 for philly and central and south new jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has about an inch of liquid for the NYC metro and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Does anyone have the EXTENDED RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have the EXTENDED RGEM? n better than 06Z but a lot of what falls is light/mod and you wouldn't stack it up. 2nd low ends up favoring coastal NE and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A timeline for when this reaches parts of the area tomorrow would be a huge help to me if someone wants to hazard a guess. Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Thoughts of Upton hoisting WSW during the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Tues AM Through Thurs AM - exact timing of precip is too complex this far out - but I am sure someone here thinks they have it fiqured out exactly Yeah even I figured out that much I'm trying to get an idea of if the precip is going to make it north of the immediate metro when that might happen. If I can get home by ~6pm or so will travel conditions still be reasonable or will it start getting dicey by then. It's just about which car I use tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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