Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, SnoSki14 said: That's not a bad look for the gfs at all, really curious to see what happens with wave 1 though. Get ready for more tree damage interior areas. No, won't be nearly as heavy and wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs crushes South Jersey and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My first snowfall map for this event: Love the map. I agree except for coastal CT, would drop the pink to the coast. Except the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... Always even going back to the 1970s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS Is much colder and a monster hit with wave 2 for philly and central and south new jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has about an inch of liquid for the NYC metro and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Does anyone have the EXTENDED RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Does anyone have the EXTENDED RGEM? n better than 06Z but a lot of what falls is light/mod and you wouldn't stack it up. 2nd low ends up favoring coastal NE and the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A timeline for when this reaches parts of the area tomorrow would be a huge help to me if someone wants to hazard a guess. Thanx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Thoughts of Upton hoisting WSW during the period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Tues AM Through Thurs AM - exact timing of precip is too complex this far out - but I am sure someone here thinks they have it fiqured out exactly Yeah even I figured out that much I'm trying to get an idea of if the precip is going to make it north of the immediate metro when that might happen. If I can get home by ~6pm or so will travel conditions still be reasonable or will it start getting dicey by then. It's just about which car I use tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: n better than 06Z but a lot of what falls is light/mod and you wouldn't stack it up. 2nd low ends up favoring coastal NE and the Cape. Thanks. Still a model split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Yeah even I figured out that much I'm trying to get an idea of if the precip is going to make it north of the immediate metro when that might happen. If I can get home by ~6pm or so will travel conditions still be reasonable or will it start getting dicey by then. It's just about which car I use tomorrow. The nam has accumulating snow all afternoon, most other models don't. It could be over by 6pm or just getting started....Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Well that's not what I wanted to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well that's not what I wanted to hear... Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. Thank you! That pretty much is what I was thinking as well but the confirmation is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Chances of snow getting north of the city at all tomorrow are slim...I suspect NAM is too far north too. What do you see as best case accumulations for the city. Your posts are more on the conservative (and unfortunately accurate side), but would love to know if you think we have a shot at seeing 6 inches on the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Canadian operational is more South and east compared to the american models but is still 6"+ South of I78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 CAnadian not really digging the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 UKIE looks good. Cant tell on temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The UKIE is probably further north than the NAM tomorrow but it’s not any huge amounts. Wave 2 looks pretty darn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 THE CMC is NOT so bad for NYC. The 1 inch liquid line is literally 20 miles south of the south shore and SI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 8 minutes ago, Animal said: CAnadian not really digging the storm. The RGEM was fairly flat at 48 so I wasn’t surprised to see the GGEM flat as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Add navgem to that list. Looks tucky and plenty of precipitation. Onto the euro...anyone seen the GEFS? Care to share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, mikem81 said: THE CMC is NOT so bad for NYC. The 1 inch liquid line is literally 20 miles south of the south shore and SI... I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here. I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I'm guessing you're new to this, you don't want to be anywhere near that cutoff line in a storm like this. It's probably a sharper cutoff than indicated here. I drew a black line over the 540 thickness. Generally speaking that's where the cutoff for "real" precip occurs Luckily the GEPS are much better and extend precipitation well into Monticello area, safe to toss ggem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z UKMET, and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NewYorkweatherfan said: Luckily the GEPS are much better and extend precipitation well into Monticello area, safe to toss ggem? it's always a safe bet to toss the GGEM regardless, and even more so when it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 really worried about dry air. WRF is hinting at difficulties getting snow north of Mason Dixon line -- its like it hits a wall from 30hrs-48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The fact that the 00z ECMWF and 12z UKMET came really far NW for the second wave really increases my confidence that the 12z NAM could be correct for wave 2. I still think wave 1 is mostly a miss unless you live South of 195 in NJ or South of 78 in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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