MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: 1-1.5" liquid so the potential exists for a foot even with some sleet And we don't even know if the nam is too warm in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: Lull from late Tuesday night through Wed afternoon Uh no. Precips comes back by 6z Wednesday for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looking at the sim radar, snow probably never shuts off in places like interior NJ from Tuesday afternoon to Thursday morning, although it could taper to very light flurries or showers for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Uh no. Precips comes back by 6z Wednesday for most very light and non-accum forzen or drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And we don't even know if the nam is too warm in the mid levels. The Nam has been very erratic with this storm, I'll trust the more consistent models over the Nam. However at least it shows a hit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3K NAM really gets nothing in here with wave 1. I’ll wait to see if the RGEM or other guidance follows the 32K NAM on that idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12Z RGEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z RGEM gets a little bit of snow up to NYC for wave 1 Here's wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Someone will get insane totals tomorrow with that wave in NJ. I could see close to a foot happening somewhere. It’ll probably be further north than expected as well. It could very well be darn close to NYC but just north of that zone will barely see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 3K NAM really gets nothing in here with wave 1. I’ll wait to see if the RGEM or other guidance follows the 32K NAM on that idea I'm figuring that the first wave is mostly a miss. If we pull out a dusting that would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM gets a little bit of snow up to NYC for wave 1 Here's wave 2 Rgem is a colder version of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Someone will get insane totals tomorrow with that wave in NJ. I could see close to a foot happening somewhere. It’ll probably be further north than expected as well. It could very well be darn close to NYC but just north of that zone will barely see a flake exactly...haves and have nots will be close to each other with dry air fighting against that slow-moving frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: This looks like a 1-2 feet from DC to Boston. What a storm depicted on the 12z nam. This is why we’re big weather enthusiasts! Times like these! Nice PBP from you guys thank you. Back to lurking! That's a bit extreme, 6 to 12 with isolated higher amounts assuming nam and Euro are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Someone will get insane totals tomorrow with that wave in NJ. I could see close to a foot happening somewhere. It’ll probably be further north than expected as well. It could very well be darn close to NYC but just north of that zone will barely see a flake If I had to guess Obviously, dark blue area with the highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That's a bit extreme, 6 to 12 with isolated higher amounts assuming nam and Euro are right As I said earlier. There are some similarities to 12/5-6/03. The 2nd wave really underperformed in that setup. The models are obviously better today but we have to watch to see if wave 2 trends somewhat sloppy over time as it’s just tough to see two disntinct disturbances both drop big snows even if they aren’t in the same locations but same general region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This reminds me exactly of a March storm maybe 3-5 years ago that got split into two different storms/waves. DC was supposed to get a ton, BOS maybe some, and NYC stuck in the middle. DC ended getting none (temp issues), BOS got pummeled with 1-2 Feet, NYC area got 3-6" ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: This looks like a 1-2 feet from DC to Boston. What a storm depicted on the 12z nam. This is why we’re big weather enthusiasts! Times like these! Nice PBP from you guys thank you. Back to lurking! 10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading. As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least. Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut. Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 30-50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM forecast played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: As I said earlier. There are some similarities to 12/5-6/03. The 2nd wave really underperformed in that setup. The models are obviously better today but we have to watch to see if wave 2 trends somewhat sloppy over time as it’s just tough to see two disntinct disturbances both drop big snows even if they aren’t in the same locations but same general region I believe most places got 6-10 from each wave, but wave 1 definitely oveperformed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That's a bit extreme, 6 to 12 with isolated higher amounts assuming nam and Euro are right Storm is still trending We don't know where the band's will be and if the storm will be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: 10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading. As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least. Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut. Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM dynamics played out. Nam shows 6-10 with sleet and snow. It will be cold enough for all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 12z ICON looks like it's coming in slightly colder and a tick North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam shows 6-10 with sleet and snow. It will be cold enough for all areas. Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... That still might happen Like I said we have to see where the bands set up and how cold the mid levels are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The nam being so erratic has to be taken into consideration. Typically when it's right it locks on to a solutionThe NAM being so high resolution is making it jump around imo. It's attempting to work out the details and the fact that it's resolution is so high can easily lead this to focus on one attribute one run and another minute attribute the next thus leading to the different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: 2-4" of sleet would still be an utter mess...least no power outages though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: I doubt anyone uses this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: Definitely has been for March this year. Some of that is sleet though which would make it much worse for travel than the totals imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map It's more accurate in this case IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map why ? ratio's have a good chance of being below 10:1 during at least part of the storm and also have to consider in any sleet that manages to fall in certain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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