MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: 10:1 NAM maps are likely going to be very misleading. As modeled and mentioned, there is a warm layer that will result in significant sleet for first half of storm at least. Then factor in late March sun angle (might as well be September, remember) and accumulations can be further cut. Factor in the NAM...frequently overdoing QPF...and you can take the Kuchera number, cut that by 50 pct, and you are probably in the ballpark of what would actually verify as accumulating snow if the NAM dynamics played out. Nam shows 6-10 with sleet and snow. It will be cold enough for all areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 12z ICON looks like it's coming in slightly colder and a tick North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam shows 6-10 with sleet and snow. It will be cold enough for all areas. Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... That still might happen Like I said we have to see where the bands set up and how cold the mid levels are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The nam being so erratic has to be taken into consideration. Typically when it's right it locks on to a solutionThe NAM being so high resolution is making it jump around imo. It's attempting to work out the details and the fact that it's resolution is so high can easily lead this to focus on one attribute one run and another minute attribute the next thus leading to the different scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
husky0101 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Capt. Adam said: Agree with NAM showing potential for widespread 6-10 DC to BOS...not the 1-2 feet shown on the 10:1 map... Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: 2-4" of sleet would still be an utter mess...least no power outages though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: I doubt anyone uses this map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, husky0101 said: Yep, this is probably a better map to use in TT: Definitely has been for March this year. Some of that is sleet though which would make it much worse for travel than the totals imply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map It's more accurate in this case IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map why ? ratio's have a good chance of being below 10:1 during at least part of the storm and also have to consider in any sleet that manages to fall in certain areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map It’s been pretty spot on for our marginal events March this year. Even when the 3k NAM was spitting out 1foot+ totals on 10:1 maps for the 5 boroughs the snow depth map was giving a more realistic 2-4 3-6. Trust me I don’t like using it but we kind of have no choice for March/April events at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sactown4 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: It's more accurate in this case IMO It has nailed the (lack of) accumulating snow in Manhattan for the last 3 systems. It actually has overdone totals during those systems. This would have been such an incredible stretch if we were in January or February, instead we've had these awesome systems that just don't stick to anything in the city. The last 2 storms both had periods where the snow started to stick for a brief period, and then washed off within an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 First wave is still mostly a miss on the 12z GFS, trough looks good for wave 2 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I doubt anyone uses this map That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. If we’d been using that map this March we would all have gone through a lot less disappointment. Missing on 2-4 or 3-6 events doesn’t hit you as hard as seeing nada from 6-12... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z GFS is still too progressive with the trough for my taste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Still looks like a decent hit on the 12z GFS for some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs is similar to the nam through 12z Wednesday. Much closer to the coast and alot of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said: That map looks realistic to me. Account for sleet and melting. I know the airmass is colder this time around but we will need heavy rates for a long period of time to get any meaningful accumulation, will come down to another nowcast situation. If the city gets anything less than hours of heavy snow, it's going to be another disappointment. It depends on location. For coastal CT it has been way too low the past two storms. However I believe it has been more accurate for LI and the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z GFS is still too progressive with the trough for my taste the jet streak is still back in southern Georgia - would be tremendous lift up along the coast there. it's a huge hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS looks like huge hit for NYC area. Precip wise. 850 look colder than NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just checking in after three days off the grid (and sitting in EWR now): Now it’s going to precipitate? I noticed this on 1010 WINS pushing this storm while on my way here. What’s the timeline for our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: the jet streak is still back in southern Georgia - would be tremendous lift up along the coast there. it's a huge hit. I see what you're saying, it closes off in the perfect location. It's a really close call for the interior though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 My first snowfall map for this event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This ends up better than I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, nycwinter said: a few hours wins 1010 was thinking this storm was a miss maybe a inch or 2...on non paved surfaces.. they are always the last to come to the dinner table... This had to be about 25 years ago, but 1010 wins was predicting three inches of snow. A person called into the station and said we have more than three inches of snow on the roads right now. I was in school at that point, so I didn't have time to listen after that, but it was still hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That's not a bad look for the gfs at all, really curious to see what happens with wave 1 though. Get ready for more tree damage interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: My first snowfall map for this event: You think heavy snow is getting that far north and West? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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