larrye Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So I get that the models have trended northward over the past 24-48 hours. But has anyone taken a look specifically at surface temps in NYC + precip intensity + the amount of progged snowfall during the day vs. night (at least as progged currently) to see if the precip is likely to accumulate? SnowGoose69 makes the point that this time of year, you really need low surface temps + we all know that sun angle and ground level warmth play directly into the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I think 2.11.83 was the last time NYC had a blizzard warning until March 1993 blizzard, a 10 year period without one. In the 2000s we get 1 blizzard warning almost once a year sometimes twice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: 12z should be coming out within the next hour correct? The NAM will initialize within 10 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, sferic said: I think 2.11.83 was the last time NYC had a blizzard warning until March 1993 blizzard, a 10 year period without one. In the 2000s we get 1 blizzard warning almost once a year sometimes twice. I believe you’re correct. The 2000s have been amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, larrye said: So I get that the models have trended northward over the past 24-48 hours. But has anyone taken a look specifically at surface temps in NYC + precip intensity + the amount of progged snowfall during the day vs. night (at least as progged currently) to see if the precip is likely to accumulate? SnowGoose69 makes the point that this time of year, you really need low surface temps + we all know that sun angle and ground level warmth play directly into the forecast. The gfs and Euro have temps in the 30 to 32 range so this is considerably colder than 2 weeks ago. We still need good rates of course but this airmass is a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 if heavy snow materializes wednesday, dewpoint progs suggest wetbulbing into the upper 20s is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: 12z should be coming out within the next hour correct? Add an hour for dst time model starts to run GFS: 10:30; 4:30 (AM/PM) GEFS (Eneembles): 12:00, 6:00 (AM/PM) NAM: 9:00, 3:00 (AM/PM SREF: 8:20, 2:20 (AM/PM) RGEM: 10:20, 4:00 (AM/PM) GGEM (CMC): 11:00 (AM/PM UKMET: 10:40 (AM/PM) ECMWF (Euro/ECM): 12:45 (AM/PM) ECM ensembles: 3:00 (AM/PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The number 1 & 2 analongs over the East at 48hrs are 2/17/03 and 2/11/83 respectfully. 2/6/10 is number 5. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F048&rundt=2018031900&map=thbCOOP72 The first piece has 03 similarities while the 2nd is more similar to 83. The first one has that relatively weak low with an overrunning signal while the 2nd piece is basically a non phaser self amplifying shortwave similar to 12/09 and 2/83. The whole setup combined though may be closest to December 2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, sferic said: Wasn't 2.11.83 a blizzard? well being in february makes a lot of difference with marginal temps.. and sun angle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Real early, but the 12z NAM is coming in more amped with the initial energy and the confluence is a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I don't see anything that makes me believe this is coming more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Less confluence and a more favorably oriented upper air energy position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: I don't see anything that makes me believe this is coming more north. How can the ridge out west be so vastly different in one run? Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 12z run looks colder than the 06z at hour 27. More wintry mix than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The trough is going negatively tilted faster, and the entire trough looks more consolidated. The first storm is way North of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Snow into NYC on Tuesday afternoon, heavy snow up to TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lol looks like heavy snow near NYC at 21z on Tuesday on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Very sharp cutoff near I-78. That's okay, this was the first storm anway, which we assume is mostly a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 only SLIGHT differences lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Ace said: Lol looks like heavy snow near NYC at 21z on Tuesday on the NAM Not quite, the cutoff looks to be near Staten Island, 2/6/10 type cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Oh baby, she’s gonna go boom. Def NW OF 6z. Due to the weaker confluence in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sharp cutoff I was speaking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Sharp cutoff I was speaking about The CCB should crush most of the area in the next few frames though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Not quite, the cutoff looks to be near Staten Island, 2/6/10 type cutoff. You're right. I jumped the gun a bit. Vastly different than prior runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Temps are below freezing for alot of areas with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NYC S & E went from 0 to 3-4" from the first wave. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The first low never closes off but delivers a great front end thump. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sharp cutoff I was speaking about That is all wave 1, not 2 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Second SLP should develop near the circle, on the nose of the strengthening jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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