Zelocita Weather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Less confluence and a more favorably oriented upper air energy position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Joe4alb said: I don't see anything that makes me believe this is coming more north. How can the ridge out west be so vastly different in one run? Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The trough is going negatively tilted faster, and the entire trough looks more consolidated. The first storm is way North of the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Snow into NYC on Tuesday afternoon, heavy snow up to TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Lol looks like heavy snow near NYC at 21z on Tuesday on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Very sharp cutoff near I-78. That's okay, this was the first storm anway, which we assume is mostly a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 only SLIGHT differences lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Ace said: Lol looks like heavy snow near NYC at 21z on Tuesday on the NAM Not quite, the cutoff looks to be near Staten Island, 2/6/10 type cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Oh baby, she’s gonna go boom. Def NW OF 6z. Due to the weaker confluence in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sharp cutoff I was speaking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Sharp cutoff I was speaking about The CCB should crush most of the area in the next few frames though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Not quite, the cutoff looks to be near Staten Island, 2/6/10 type cutoff. You're right. I jumped the gun a bit. Vastly different than prior runs though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Temps are below freezing for alot of areas with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NYC S & E went from 0 to 3-4" from the first wave. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The first low never closes off but delivers a great front end thump. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Sharp cutoff I was speaking about That is all wave 1, not 2 yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Second SLP should develop near the circle, on the nose of the strengthening jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Joe4alb said: NYC S & E went from 0 to 3-4" from the first wave. I'll take it. The nam being so erratic has to be taken into consideration. Typically when it's right it locks on to a solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like wave 2 should be slightly NW of 6z as the heights are a bit higher. Wave 1 was so different though so this should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 not all of that would be snow...850 temps come above freezing in the evening and are still there at 12Z wed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Precip breaking out for wave 2, 987mb off the VA Capes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: not all of that would be snow...850 temps come above freezing in the evening and are still there at 12Z wed on this run. pretty nasty warm layer between 750-850...looks like sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Great track coming in but mid levels are toasty. Could be looking at a slizzard here for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Coming North, 985mb off the Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: But all that sleet will help the snow accumulate easily once it changes over. It doesn't change over until after 10am and at 18z it's still not snow east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Sleet to snow for the coast on the Nam with surface temps around 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The liquid equivalent on this run will be sick, and a major winter storm for I-95. How much is sleet vs snow remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, tempestatis014 said: Big difference in snow totals. Looks more like the 18z from yesterday. Nice trend and good track but right now it's lots and lots of sleet for the first part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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