Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Meh. Gn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This may be a bit of a premature statement but I think the confluence is really going to wind up hurting us here in the end. Still amazed we are worried about that in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Plenty of time for this to change I just feel that high pressure really means business. We just need a stronger storm and a weaker high. We got the stronger storm on the last few runs but the high stayed the same. Got work in the am may the Euro and ukmet crush us. Night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs does get more snow up here than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This may be a bit of a premature statement but I think the confluence is really going to wind up hurting us here in the end. Still amazed we are worried about that in mid March. Its a fickle thing... without that confluence we may end up with an inland runner... too much of it and we're likely watching this thing sail across the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Good news: the NAM showed more consistency between this run and last. Bad news: obviously the confluence. Complex storm gives us more time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like the GGEM looks like the RGEM. A close miss for the metro area. As it stands right now most models (NAM, RGEM, GGEM) have a good 500mb look. We still have 2 days to for adjustments to occur for a better result for the metro area. Not a terrible position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What are the chances that the confluence is being modeled to strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI. The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there. Still, looks like good trends at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yep euro shows 1- 1.5" precip from Philly up thru the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI. The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there. Still, looks like good trends at this point. Euro has a slow moving snowstorm for the area CMC ensembles are west of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Another snowstorm on the Euro for next weekend for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro has temps near 30 for the area newr the coast and upper 20s inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Any word on the UK? Looked good from that 12 hour map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Any word on the UK? Looked good from that 12 hour map... Ukie looked very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That Ukie/Euro combo is tough to ignore less than 3 days out. But where will that gradient set up exactly? 06z Nam got a lot better again but it's been flip flopping like crazy so I wouldn't trust it. This will def be a colder storm though (if it happens) because there's a lot more dry air this time, lower wet-bulb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nam came back northwest quite a bit from 0z, Mt. Holly snow map favors central NJ on South and east with 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Nam came back northwest quite a bit from 0z, Mt. Holly snow map favors central NJ on South and east with 4-5. Nam hits Cental to snj hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Upton has 4-6 inches for NYC and LI and 2-3 for inland areas on their snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs is further west with more snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is further west with more snow for everyone. I thought it looked not all that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Significant trends on Nam and GFS towards the Euro. You can clearly see the changes aloft and H5. But will they continue? Huge 12z runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The whole setup is fickle as depicted by the Euro/UK/NAM because if the system closes too fast we can still be shafted. I think we are in a decent spot though and that due to all the pieces the close off may happen slightly later than currently shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21 minutes ago, Animal said: I thought it looked not all that great. It came west from 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It came west from 0z I thought the 6Z GFS was much improved if you look at the H5 levels. The latest NAM improved too. EURO/UKIE combo are tough to beat this close in. Would not be surprised if it comes in closer resulting in mixing issues for the city. Very dynamic setup indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I thought the 6Z GFS was much improved if you look at the H5 levels. The latest NAM improved too. EURO/UKIE combo are tough to beat this close in. Would not be surprised if it comes in closer resulting in mixing issues for the city. Very dynamic setup indeed. The west trend is undeniable. We will see what the 12z runs throws at us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gefs is west of the op also Confluence is weaker on every model now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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