Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k nam through hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The key really is that confluince, which was much further NE on the 18z run. We need that to get out of the way or it’s a no go no matter how great h5 looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah you can definitely see the shift in confluence in SE Canada. It pretty much forces everything south from 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The key really is that confluince, which was much further NE on the 18z run. We need that to get out of the way or it’s a no go no matter how great h5 looks. The confluence isnt helping things because it prevents heights from building northeast of the ULL, thus preventing it from slowing down and tilting more negatively. However, id wager that if you took that large vort rotating around the base of the trough at 57 and rotate it 90 degrees around the base of the trough and have it riding northward, youd have a major storm close to the coast, as heights would try to build under the confluence like we saw on the 18z run My point is, this run was simply a timing difference from being a major storm for a lot of people here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Vendor/TV met posts in the vendor thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 "Thread the needle" comment in 3...2...1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Difficult to tell with the b/w maps... but the 48 hr RGEM 500 mb chart looks similar (not the same) to the 00z NAM. The trough axis is ever so slightly east of the NAM it appears (546 DM height line is through central PA, as opposed to western PA). At the same time, however, the confluence over southern Quebec does not appear to be quite as pressing... Again though, its hard to tell small differences trying to compare the two maps, so will have to wait for the tidbits version to come out to better compare the two Rather than add another post, ill just edit this one... Looks as though ICON is slightly more amped vs 18z, for whatever that is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Icon has a decent look, less confluence and looks almost like the 18z nam https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031900&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 0Z extended Rgem looks like a close miss. Not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Meh. Gn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This may be a bit of a premature statement but I think the confluence is really going to wind up hurting us here in the end. Still amazed we are worried about that in mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Plenty of time for this to change I just feel that high pressure really means business. We just need a stronger storm and a weaker high. We got the stronger storm on the last few runs but the high stayed the same. Got work in the am may the Euro and ukmet crush us. Night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Gfs does get more snow up here than last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This may be a bit of a premature statement but I think the confluence is really going to wind up hurting us here in the end. Still amazed we are worried about that in mid March. Its a fickle thing... without that confluence we may end up with an inland runner... too much of it and we're likely watching this thing sail across the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Good news: the NAM showed more consistency between this run and last. Bad news: obviously the confluence. Complex storm gives us more time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like the GGEM looks like the RGEM. A close miss for the metro area. As it stands right now most models (NAM, RGEM, GGEM) have a good 500mb look. We still have 2 days to for adjustments to occur for a better result for the metro area. Not a terrible position to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What are the chances that the confluence is being modeled to strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI. The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there. Still, looks like good trends at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yep euro shows 1- 1.5" precip from Philly up thru the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, NYCGreg said: FWIW, in the NE thread, the Euro had 10-11 inches of snow in and around NYC proper with 12-13 in central jersey and on parts of LI. The shot I saw cut off southern NJ, so I don't know what accumulations were down there. Still, looks like good trends at this point. Euro has a slow moving snowstorm for the area CMC ensembles are west of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Another snowstorm on the Euro for next weekend for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro has temps near 30 for the area newr the coast and upper 20s inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Any word on the UK? Looked good from that 12 hour map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Any word on the UK? Looked good from that 12 hour map... Ukie looked very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 That Ukie/Euro combo is tough to ignore less than 3 days out. But where will that gradient set up exactly? 06z Nam got a lot better again but it's been flip flopping like crazy so I wouldn't trust it. This will def be a colder storm though (if it happens) because there's a lot more dry air this time, lower wet-bulb temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Nam came back northwest quite a bit from 0z, Mt. Holly snow map favors central NJ on South and east with 4-5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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