Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This trend from the 12Z run to now has been great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Def coming in southeast of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 whats interesting with this whole thing now is that the initial vort isnt getting completely squashed, its simply weakening an stalling over northern Kentucky. This leftover circulation becomes a fulcrum, so to speak, around which the s/w's diving into the trough will rotate around. What will dictate how far north the storm would theoretically get before stalling once rounding around that fulcrum is the confluence to the north. The further south that is, the further south the low is. It would also mean colder temps aloft, which would be good so long as we get the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is gonna be a bomb. We might have mixing issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Strange precip distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wow That looks like a negative tilt or my eyes are just tired.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 988mb off the Va capes at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Strange precip distribution Very strange. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can discuss. The confluence is a bit stronger, but I don't know if the synoptics would lead to this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 988 and no precipitation in the northern half of Delaware lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: That looks like a negative tilt or my eyes are just tired.... It is, but a large part of the vorticity is still rounding the base of the trough, so its not done maturing as a negatively tilted trough yet... we'll see how it goes, it can only go so far north with the confluence up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Great run no matter how it turned out. Very close to a huge solution for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What a weird run, nam just had a burp...onto to rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Grear run no matter how it turned out. Very close to a huge solution for us H5 looked great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Slight changes on the NAM again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Regardless of the solution, it is the second straight run in which the low pressure is intense and stalls for a good period of time just off the east coast. Not exiting stage right like some other models. H5 looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 988 and no precipitation in the northern half of Delaware lol The NAM just had a vomit session....not even a hiccup. The surface is nowhere near matching what H5 just spit out. That H5 is a big ticket event in the making. I think this is a case where the NAM resolution is having significant challenges handling the dynamic deepening alot. Even 18z was junk at the surface. The critical levels were posted above.....H5 and 300mb. Those are key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: Looks like NAM has it sitting south a bit longer but then kicking it More easterly. The lowe is slower and heights are flatter. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A few things to note here... 1. Increased confluence (which has been noted several times by everyone here) over northern NE/Southern Quebec. 2. Location of the ULL... Again, this will be the pivot point, the further west this is, the further west the storm will drive north 3. Note the intense vorticity coming around the base of the trough on the 00z run. This was absent on the 18z run. The result of this, is that it keeps dragging the trough axis eastward as opposed to northward. Since it is the area of strongest PVA as well, the ULL closes off the coast with this piece rather than with the weaker piece already around the base of the trough... you can see in the 18z run, this "Weaker" piece is the dominant piece where the ULL forms at the coast, resulting in a further north solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3k nam through hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The key really is that confluince, which was much further NE on the 18z run. We need that to get out of the way or it’s a no go no matter how great h5 looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah you can definitely see the shift in confluence in SE Canada. It pretty much forces everything south from 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The key really is that confluince, which was much further NE on the 18z run. We need that to get out of the way or it’s a no go no matter how great h5 looks. The confluence isnt helping things because it prevents heights from building northeast of the ULL, thus preventing it from slowing down and tilting more negatively. However, id wager that if you took that large vort rotating around the base of the trough at 57 and rotate it 90 degrees around the base of the trough and have it riding northward, youd have a major storm close to the coast, as heights would try to build under the confluence like we saw on the 18z run My point is, this run was simply a timing difference from being a major storm for a lot of people here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Vendor/TV met posts in the vendor thread please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 "Thread the needle" comment in 3...2...1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Difficult to tell with the b/w maps... but the 48 hr RGEM 500 mb chart looks similar (not the same) to the 00z NAM. The trough axis is ever so slightly east of the NAM it appears (546 DM height line is through central PA, as opposed to western PA). At the same time, however, the confluence over southern Quebec does not appear to be quite as pressing... Again though, its hard to tell small differences trying to compare the two maps, so will have to wait for the tidbits version to come out to better compare the two Rather than add another post, ill just edit this one... Looks as though ICON is slightly more amped vs 18z, for whatever that is worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Icon has a decent look, less confluence and looks almost like the 18z nam https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018031900&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 0Z extended Rgem looks like a close miss. Not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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