Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ace said: We'll see how it turns out, but I do believe it will be closer to its 18Z depiction than its 12Z depiction. I'm a big fan of toggling back and forth each frame (current vs previous run). They made it so easy nowadays and it really helps when conparing small difference in the evolution of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Recovering now. Not a bad look The second shortwave being slower vs 18Z made the difference. If it was not slower, then this would have been shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The confluence to the NE is a bit stronger this run which could be the reason for the flatter look early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: The second shortwave being slower vs 18Z made the difference. If it was not slower, then this would have been shunted east. Guys, feel free to post trend gif's from tropical tidbits of the h5 set up so everyone who is too busy can have a peak and maybe learn something. Im a little busy right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ace said: The second shortwave being slower vs 18Z made the difference. If it was not slower, then this would have been shunted east. I agree. Let's see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Guys, feel free to post trend gif's from tropical tidbits of the h5 set up so everyone who is too busy can have a peak and maybe learn something. Im a little busy right now. I can't anymore. It says file is too big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I agree. Let's see how it plays out. I think it will be fine at the end It recovered alot as the run progressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I can't anymore. It says file is too big Take a screenshot on your phone then upload... if still too large you may have to crop it. That’s what I was doing earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This trend from the 12Z run to now has been great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Def coming in southeast of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 whats interesting with this whole thing now is that the initial vort isnt getting completely squashed, its simply weakening an stalling over northern Kentucky. This leftover circulation becomes a fulcrum, so to speak, around which the s/w's diving into the trough will rotate around. What will dictate how far north the storm would theoretically get before stalling once rounding around that fulcrum is the confluence to the north. The further south that is, the further south the low is. It would also mean colder temps aloft, which would be good so long as we get the precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is gonna be a bomb. We might have mixing issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Strange precip distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Wow That looks like a negative tilt or my eyes are just tired.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 988mb off the Va capes at hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Strange precip distribution Very strange. Maybe someone more knowledgeable can discuss. The confluence is a bit stronger, but I don't know if the synoptics would lead to this depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 988 and no precipitation in the northern half of Delaware lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: That looks like a negative tilt or my eyes are just tired.... It is, but a large part of the vorticity is still rounding the base of the trough, so its not done maturing as a negatively tilted trough yet... we'll see how it goes, it can only go so far north with the confluence up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Great run no matter how it turned out. Very close to a huge solution for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Hour 72 killed snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What a weird run, nam just had a burp...onto to rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Grear run no matter how it turned out. Very close to a huge solution for us H5 looked great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Slight changes on the NAM again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Regardless of the solution, it is the second straight run in which the low pressure is intense and stalls for a good period of time just off the east coast. Not exiting stage right like some other models. H5 looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 988 and no precipitation in the northern half of Delaware lol The NAM just had a vomit session....not even a hiccup. The surface is nowhere near matching what H5 just spit out. That H5 is a big ticket event in the making. I think this is a case where the NAM resolution is having significant challenges handling the dynamic deepening alot. Even 18z was junk at the surface. The critical levels were posted above.....H5 and 300mb. Those are key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Looks like NAM has it sitting south a bit longer but then kicking it More easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, tempestatis014 said: Looks like NAM has it sitting south a bit longer but then kicking it More easterly. The lowe is slower and heights are flatter. Makes sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 A few things to note here... 1. Increased confluence (which has been noted several times by everyone here) over northern NE/Southern Quebec. 2. Location of the ULL... Again, this will be the pivot point, the further west this is, the further west the storm will drive north 3. Note the intense vorticity coming around the base of the trough on the 00z run. This was absent on the 18z run. The result of this, is that it keeps dragging the trough axis eastward as opposed to northward. Since it is the area of strongest PVA as well, the ULL closes off the coast with this piece rather than with the weaker piece already around the base of the trough... you can see in the 18z run, this "Weaker" piece is the dominant piece where the ULL forms at the coast, resulting in a further north solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.