NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, White Gorilla said: According to a recent abstract posted in the other thread, a negative to positive NAO favors suppression along with a negative PNA, which are both projected next week. That's not true at all lol The rebounding NAO favors a less suppressed track where a negative NAO favors more suppression. The PNA isn't all that important with this setup because we're not relying on it to dig the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Exactly where we want to be at this juncture. Every single event has trended nw from this time period. more cold available this time. Could this finally be the storm the coast comes through... If there’s a high bringing cold air down, maybe there’s a chance down here. But there’s so much that has to go right that it’s pointless for me to get interested unless it’s still showing this a couple of days out. I couldn’t care less about another marginal/lousy surface air setup where coastal areas and the city are relying on 33-34 temps and paltry rates. Count me right out of that. Couldn’t care less either what any snow map shows for that. It’ll be a couple inches or less of slop that melts by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Rjay said: It might be a day or so early to start this but there's solid ensemble support for a storm. Have at it. **The "attention everyone" thread still applies. "Magoo you've done it again " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Anyone have the 12z UKMET, hasn't updated yet for me on metrocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I cannot think of a single scenario with this storm that would give the South shore of LI the most snow, because even a suppressed track that ticked slightly North would keep the best rates over C NJ and out over the ocean. In order for the coast to do well, the rest of us need to do well too, that's why the 12z GFS is about the best case scenario for the majority of posters here. For someone who just experienced what banding can do this is a pretty silly comment. Any area can jackpot in any snow event. Banding is nearly impossible to forecast even hours before an event let alone days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That's not true at all lol The rebounding NAO favors a less suppressed track where a negative NAO favors more suppression. The PNA isn't all that important with this setup because we're not relying on it to dig the trough. That is what I always read before, so it really confused me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: For someone who just experienced what banding can do this is a pretty silly comment. Any area can jackpot in any snow event. Banding is nearly impossible to forecast even hours before an event let alone days. You're really comparing this over running to weak coastal to a sub 980mb miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 No, the 534 line is even further North. The GGEM tries to push a piece of the developing high into Central NE before consolidating it over Ontario. The GGEM is a joke of a model, but by all means, keep using it. I don't even know why I bother posting here.Don't take things so personally brother. You know Anthony is always looking for snow. He proclaims it and its just the fact of who he is.As far as your posts, you tend to be one of our more knowledgeable posters, so you contribute quite a bit.Lastly, the models have so much vorticity /energy around, combined with just the sheer number of s/w's and the fact that tele's all seem to be flipping at the same time, it's a wonder they have anything worked out. That said, pattern recognition. I tend to agree with jm. There is cold, however, it's late March and we're marginal. Furthermore if the NAO does flip, we are going to really have to worry about mid level warmth. As we have seen, surface cold does not cut it in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Don't take things so personally brother. You know Anthony is always looking for snow. He proclaims it and its just the fact of who he is. As far as your posts, you tend to be one of our more knowledgeable posters, so you contribute quite a bit. Lastly, the models have so much vorticity /energy around, combined with just the sheer number of s/w's and the fact that tele's all seem to be flipping at the same time, it's a wonder they have anything worked out. That said, pattern recognition. I tend to agree with jm. There is cold, however, it's late March and we're marginal. Furthermore if the NAO does flip, we are going to really have to worry about mid level warmth. As we have seen, surface cold does not cut it in March. What kills me about Anthony is that he's smart enough to know better, he just always chooses fantasy over truth. As I say this, the Euro decided to keep the ULL around longer, which pushes the storm track for the first storm off the VA coast. At least that reason makes sense, unlike the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What kills me about Anthony is that he's smart enough to know better, he just always chooses fantasy over truth. As I say this, the Euro decided to keep the ULL around longer, which pushes the storm track for the first storm off the VA coast. At least that reason makes sense, unlike the GGEM. Dude the 540 is off the coast on the cmc per stormvista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Second storm passes way Southeast as well. You're never going to get a storm that comes up the coast with that first storm starting off so far East. It drags the baroclinic zone with it, and the second storm will follow the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Dude the 540 is off the coast on the cmc per stormvista. What time frame? Are we talking about the same model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Don't take things so personally brother. You know Anthony is always looking for snow. He proclaims it and its just the fact of who he is. As far as your posts, you tend to be one of our more knowledgeable posters, so you contribute quite a bit. Lastly, the models have so much vorticity /energy around, combined with just the sheer number of s/w's and the fact that tele's all seem to be flipping at the same time, it's a wonder they have anything worked out. That said, pattern recognition. I tend to agree with jm. There is cold, however, it's late March and we're marginal. Furthermore if the NAO does flip, we are going to really have to worry about mid level warmth. As we have seen, surface cold does not cut it in March. Because I'm right about the cmc but let's move on Euro is further south than the cmc. Big whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What time frame? Are we talking about the same model? https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/sv/model/cmc/12z/ne/1-mslp-qpf6-1000-500-thk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Well, at least at this point there are no amped up rainers in the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dude the 540 is off the coast on the cmc per stormvista. He's looking at heights, you're looking at thicknesses. They're not the same thing, although they are related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/sv/model/cmc/12z/ne/1-mslp-qpf6-1000-500-thk I see what you're saying. Looks like I confused heights with thicknesses. The Euro also shows the 540 thickness draped over the region. If that ends up being true, then we're toast. I still stand by my earlier statement that you do not want the GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I see what you're saying. I see what you are saying also Nvm Back to tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12Z EURO is a complete miss to the south all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12Z EURO is a complete miss to the south all weekTherefore... Expect an interior blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z EURO is a complete miss to the south all week Very unlikely with the NAO switching rapidly from - to +. Also -AO to +AO favors a storm near the coast. The biggest issue once again will be the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 12Z EURO is a complete miss to the south all week It's more beneficial if you explain why it's showing that scenario The Euro takes a piece of the departing ULL and sends it South which suppresses everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 12Z GFS is back at it. After droppng from 16" to 8" on the 06Z, it is off the scales at 20" with some mixing issues. Anything over 10" in NYC is suspect in the post winter period. How much precip. comes at night, could decide this issue. Also what is left on ground at the conclusion is what you will remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: That's not true at all lol The rebounding NAO favors a less suppressed track where a negative NAO favors more suppression. The PNA isn't all that important with this setup because we're not relying on it to dig the trough. To be clear, in the other thread I was just posting about whether this qualified as an Archambault Event or not (and I always thought winter precip events were more likely when the NAO was going from neg to pos, not pos to neg, so my memory was flawed on that count, as per below; bolding is mine), not how the NAO might impact suppression. Wonder if others remember it being neg to pos NAO regime change being the driver for big winter storms. This observational study investigates statistical and synoptic–dynamic relationships between regime transitions, defined as a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Pacific–North American pattern (PNA) index change from at least a 1 standard deviation anomaly to at least a 1 standard deviation anomaly of opposite sign within 7 days, and cool-season (November–April) northeastern U.S. (NE) precipitation. A statistical analysis is performed of daily cool-season NE precipitation during all NAO and PNA transitions for 1948–2003, and a composite analysis and case study of a major cool-season NE precipitation event occurring during a positive-to-negative NAO transition are conducted. Datasets used are the 0.25° NCEP Unified Precipitation Dataset, the 2.5° NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, and the 1.125° 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Results of the statistical analysis suggest that cool-season NE precipitation tends to be enhanced during positive-to-negative NAO and negative-to-positive PNA transitions, and suppressed during negative-to-positive NAO and positive-to-negative PNA transitions. Of the four types of regime transitions, only the positive-to-negative NAO transition is associated with substantially more frequent major cool-season NE precipitation events compared to climatology. Results of the composite analysis and case study indicate that a surface cyclone and cyclonic wave breaking associated with the major NE precipitation event can help produce a high-latitude blocking pattern over the North Atlantic characteristic of a negative NAO pattern via thermal advection, potential vorticity transport, and diabatic processes. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Very unlikely with the NAO switching rapidly from - to +. Also -AO to +AO favors a storm near the coast. The biggest issue once again will be the temps. Eps is also suppressed but they usually follow each other I'm more worried about suppression here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 a bit worried about suppression, Euro, JMA and to some degree the CMC agree....early yes, but today's runs have to been considered as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: a bit worried about suppression, Euro, JMA and to some degree the CMC agree....early yes, but today's runs have to been considered as a possibility. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Because of the NAO flip and other factors ’m inclined to think similar along the lines to what Steve D is thinking in that this probably is a PHL north event or it’s not an event at all. If the pieces come together right this probably goes up the coast. If not it probably slides OTS and isn’t a big deal for anyone other than the mountains of NC AND VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Our biggest homeruns are storms that look suppressed initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I will get more excited once it looks like there won't be any white rain or any rainSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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