NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21Z RPM is amped up and gets heavy precip well into the interior - foot plus over most of eastern PA to just W/N of the city. jackpot 16+ in north-central to northeast NJ up to POU/SWF. the city proper gets into pellets. everyone in this forum would still see at least several more inches after the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Big snow: RGEM AND NAM Moderate snow: EURO Skim: GFS and ICON Miss: CMC and UKMET We are no closer to a consensus then we were 6 hours ago or 24 hours ago. Like I said earlier today, after the 12z runs tomorrow will be my deciding time to either go all in or bail out regardless of what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18Z GEFS at 500 MB = Not a bad look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Most exciting storm of the year to track. A unusual evolution and major HECS potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 SREF is going to be good Arws and Nmbs are wetter than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 18Z GEFS at 500 MB = Not a bad look... I keep seeing these images of decent closed h5 lows east of the EC and folks are jumping for joy. This image is not impressive! Folks have to look for the divergence aloft NE of H5 low for best lift and most times, best precipitation. This is first day of synoptic meteo 101. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, Enigma said: I keep seeing these images of decent closed h5 lows east of the EC and folks are jumping for joy. This image is not impressive! Folks have to look for the divergence aloft NE of H5 low for best lift and most times, best precipitation. This is first day of synoptic meteo 101. Most of us aren't meteorologists (myself included), but we love weather. That's why we like this forum. Yes, upon closer look. It's not impressive. Northwest of H5 is weak looking. Sometimes us non-mets just get too excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21z SREF is way North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 34 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Most exciting storm of the year to track. A unusual evolution and major HECS potential. Eh, it's almost April anything light won't accumulate. It's got long duration potential but that means light/moderate daytime snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 21z SREF is way North Over an inch of liquid for NYC Very north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Eh, it's almost April anything light won't accumulate. It's got long duration potential but that means light/moderate daytime snow. This is going to be a cold storm with possible below freezing temps. We have seen April snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Over an inch of liquid for NYC Very north Is it rain north, sleet north, or perfect north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Is it rain north, sleet north, or perfect north? Warm for us but it's the SREF This is going to be a cold storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: This is going to be a cold storm with possible below freezing temps. We have seen April snowstorms. If it's 31 during daylight it may as well be 38. You need rates to be great during the day or exceptionally cold like 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Over an inch of liquid for NYC Very north SREF useless at this range, especially given how aggressive and erratic the NAM has been the past 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: SREF useless at this range, especially given how aggressive and erratic the NAM has been the past 24 hrs. They were useless with the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The SREFS you want to see highly amped at this range because they’re always overamped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 00z anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: 00z anyone? NAM run has not progressed enough...at least on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tempestatis014 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: NAM run has not progressed enough...at least on tidbits. Yeah it's at hour 15 for the 12km for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The bickering is absolutely ridiculous. Keep the posts civil and analysis based or they’ll be deleted. And read Rjay’s pinned thread. Grow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: The bickering is absolutely ridiculous. Keep the posts civil and analysis based or they’ll be deleted. And read Rjay’s pinned thread. Grow up. Exactly. Let it play out. Don't let person bias for liking / not liking snow interfere with analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Did you know the 21z SREF was only good for NW NJ where 12 people live? And I deleted it along with several other garbage posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is probably gonna be another money run. 0Z Nam has the second shortwave hanging back some more vs 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Heights are a bit lower on the NAM so far. This might come slightly southeast of 18z. Too early to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ace said: This is probably gonna be another money run. 0Z Nam has the second shortwave hanging back some more vs 18Z. There's several things i dislike about this nam run so far. I hope it recovers. Compare h5 to the last run and you'll see why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Def flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: There's several things i dislike about this nam run so far. I hope it recovers. Compare h5 to the last run and you'll see why. We'll see how it turns out, but I do believe it will be closer to its 18Z depiction than its 12Z depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Recovering now. Not a bad look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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