purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Thanks. Looks South of 12z. it’s just a different evolution of the whole cyclone, really. a lot of mesoscale/convective things happening on it and the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 NAM at it again. This time it is the 18Z. By the Cobb Snow Method we are getting 18" on 2.10", or 9:1. Albeit this is a warmer column than yesterday's run which was 17:1 with 25"+. In-between runs had no precipitation and no snow. Performance is appalling for the models, even given the difficulties of inviting too many guest (pieces of energy) to the party and not knowing who will get along with whom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 56 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The 2nd noreaster of the month. LI eventually was dry slotted as was NYC otherwise would have been 6 to 12 there too. Temps were fine. Ok Got it. We were here as well, but just by a few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Nice storm signal. The evolution on our guidance is definitely working out differently than I thought but with a similar result so far. Exciting days are ahead. Buckle up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: it’s just a different evolution of the whole cyclone, really. a lot of mesoscale/convective things happening on it and the NAM. Exactly. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Nice storm signal. The evolution on our guidance is definitely working out differently than I thought but with a similar result so far. Exciting days are ahead. Buckle up. thread title reverse psych ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: thread title reverse psych ftw? I'm not one that believes in that stuff but many others enjoy it. Just trying to keep this place fun and have a relaxed atmosphere. I really think it's coming. If im wrong, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not one that believes in that stuff but many others enjoy it. Just trying to keep this place fun and have a relaxed atmosphere. I really think it's coming. If im wrong, oh well. Well your not the one to honk for no reason so when you do it’s defjnitely noteworthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 And of course 18z GGEM shifts south. Going to be a wild ride next couple of days! With evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GFS kind of has this look to it for snowfall distro only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: And of course 18z GGEM shifts south. Going to be a wild ride next couple of days! With evidence. That's the GDPS, not the GGEM. I believe that they are quite different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Enigma said: That's the GDPS, not the GGEM. I believe that they are quite different. Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: I'm not one that believes in that stuff but many others enjoy it. Just trying to keep this place fun and have a relaxed atmosphere. I really think it's coming. If im wrong, oh well. same and i appreciate that. i’ve definitely seen enough today to lean towards at least some accumulation happening. not 100% sold on 6+ real inches yet but it certainly seems to be a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Enigma said: That's the GDPS, not the GGEM. I believe that they are quite different. I believe the GDPS is the global CMC (formerly the GGEM) and RDPS (fRGEM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Massive improvement on the EPS probability of >3”... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, SACRUS said: I believe the GDPS is the global CMC (formerly the GGEM) and RDPS (fRGEM) Yes. This is correct. My error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Starting to get interested for the city and coast. The airmass definitely seems colder than the last few events, hopefully enough to stick. The rates are looking to be at least moderate for a while, and storm 2 at least looks intriguing and could be a bomb if wave 1 doesn’t throw off the baroclinic zone. Hopefully tomorrow the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, tempestatis014 said: About the ground temperature, it's probably going to be warmer than the air I think near 40. But as soon as the snow hits the ground, it will cool down really quickly That's why I wholeheartedly want it to start as sleet so we'd have less problems accumulating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18Z GEFS is basically the same as 12Z = not much precip north of Monmouth County NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Storm details will be ironed out over the next few days, but what has been apparent is the availability of more low level cold air while mid level temperatures may be more questionable in comparison to our previous storms this month. Obviously low pressure proximity and precipitation rates will go a long way in dictating precipitation types, but this will be something to keep in mind as we go forward. EDIT: The first storm of this month had toasty midlevel temperatures as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GEFS is basically the same as 12Z = not much precip north of Monmouth County NJ Thanks. Big snow: RGEM AND NAM Moderate snow: EURO Skim: GFS and ICON Miss: CMC and UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 the 18z BTV WRF is the ultimate run - 2.5" liquid equiv (all snow) and still going at 84h. https://www.weather.gov/btv/4kmwrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 21Z RPM is amped up and gets heavy precip well into the interior - foot plus over most of eastern PA to just W/N of the city. jackpot 16+ in north-central to northeast NJ up to POU/SWF. the city proper gets into pellets. everyone in this forum would still see at least several more inches after the run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Thanks. Big snow: RGEM AND NAM Moderate snow: EURO Skim: GFS and ICON Miss: CMC and UKMET We are no closer to a consensus then we were 6 hours ago or 24 hours ago. Like I said earlier today, after the 12z runs tomorrow will be my deciding time to either go all in or bail out regardless of what actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18Z GEFS at 500 MB = Not a bad look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Most exciting storm of the year to track. A unusual evolution and major HECS potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 SREF is going to be good Arws and Nmbs are wetter than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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