NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: That could certainly be the difference for NYC this time around... Not that I give a crap, but I don’t see why NYC proper wouldn’t do better in this storm vs the last 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Nao and AO are rising. The confluence shouldn't squash this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Snow88 said: Nam is below freezing This will be colder than the past storms The NAM is 32-33 in NYC and warms as precipitation rates decline. It’s 20’s up here, but even I warm as rates decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 If the storm 2 storms ago can literally ride the coast and keep all coastal locations snow, this one can too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, sferic said: 7-1 or 8-1 ratios for NYC? Any CCB's with this? Would it be considered a Nor'Easter ? Nor’easter is a made up word, any coastal storm can be labeled that. Yes, if you read my NAM posts, the CCB cranks on Wednesday afternoon. Ratios are impossible to predict, but 8:1 is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18z nam is not unlike the 12z rgem and is within the ensemble spread. also somehow fits the falling pna, rising nao and lingering blockiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: If the storm 2 storms ago can literally ride the coast and keep all coastal locations snow, this one can too. What storm would that be? Not any of the recent ones.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Nor’easter is a made up word, any coastal storm can be labeled that. Yes, if you read my NAM posts, the CCB cranks on Wednesday afternoon. Ratios are impossible to predict, but 8:1 is a good start. As opposed to words like "hurricane" or "balloon", which have been woven into the fabric of the universe since the beginning of time itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 CMC showed the same thing at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Juliancolton said: As opposed to words like "hurricane" or "balloon", which have been woven into the fabric of the universe since the beginning of time itself At least Hurricane has a published criteria, Nor’easter does not, was my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Interested in seeing 18Z GFS in the next hour, let's see if it joins the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The NAM is 32-33 in NYC and warms as precipitation rates decline. It’s 20’s up here, but even I warm as rates decline. Nope Just saw stormvista. Freezing line is below NYC when the heavy precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: At least Hurricane has a published criteria, Nor’easter does not, was my point. Still a made-up word. I think when most people ask about nor'easters, they're usually thinking of the wind aspect. In that respect, that NAM solution would be quite a buffeting along the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 This storm would be a much different storm in terms of thermal profiles. Surface was not great in those storms, but midlevels were plenty cold enough for most areas. This storm, however, mid levels are sketchy on the NAM (verbatim) while low level temps are about as good as you can expect for this time of year. Sleet probably makes it a good bit inland before quickly changing over to snow in most place. Also, the DGZ is meager and very high up in the ATM due to the marginal mid-level temps, so ratios will, as others mentioned, not be ideal. Don't have omega on my SKU T, however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What storm would that be? Not any of the recent ones.... The 2nd noreaster of the month. LI eventually was dry slotted as was NYC otherwise would have been 6 to 12 there too. Temps were fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 any coastal low that has gusty NE winds along the east coast (mid-atl to canadian maritimes) is a nor’easter, whether or not it produces precip in your backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Not to get ahead of ourselves but is next weekend a serious winter threat too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Not to get ahead of ourselves but is next weekend a serious winter threat too? yes. it’s been hinted at in the ensembles for close to a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 FWIW, at hour 48 on the RGEM it looks rather similar to the NAM at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 ICON has come north as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18Z ICON looks really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 German is well north and gets snow into the area Rgem is still impressive even for SNE GFS is coming in north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: German is well north and gets snow into the area Rgem is still impressive even for SNE GFS is coming in north Can you post RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: Can you post RGEM? I have trouble posting images from my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Can you post RGEM? RGEM at 72 hours. Looks like it stalls at this point because its at the same spot 12 hours later. Don't have precipitation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: German is well north and gets snow into the area Rgem is still impressive even for SNE GFS is coming in north GFS is nothing like the NAM for wave 2, way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS is nothing like the NAM for wave 2, way offshore. Still came quite a bit north in one run and we have at least 8 more to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GFS late to the party? Say it ain't so. They should rename that model Wallflower (WFL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Can you post RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: GFS is nothing like the NAM for wave 2, way offshore. True but it def has trended toward the euro. So baby steps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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