RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Just looked at all the models. All go due east after forming hence our lack of precip. Just did see GEFS. 8 numbers get appreciable precip in. Not impossible but at some point we want to see at least 1 model hit us. ding ding 12z euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 0.60" line up to about si by Thurs am on euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: ding ding 12z euro lol Good. Now lets get the others in line. Lets hope the ens5 are even further me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 34 minutes ago, doncat said: 0.60" line up to about si by Thurs am on euro. Big improvement from 48 hrs ago. The favorable upper divergence and UL closing off leave room for a closer to BM track adjustment next few days with 2nd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The Euro to me looked really close to a big solution. It almost had a 3 SLP scenario. Need that first piece to come North so that it doesn’t push the baroclinic zone offshore. It’s too bad that we’ve sort of lost that miller B look from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Still plenty of time for this to correct. Maybe it will (we've seen this before), maybe it won't (we've also seen this before). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18z NAM and 18Z GFS will add to the drama soon but tonight's full 00z suite should begin to point to better consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Eps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Many on here have really over-reacted the last 12 hrs. We are no where near a solution yet. Wave 2 is outside 72 hrs still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 When does the EPS come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The EPS was even further NW then the OP EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, allgame830 said: The EPS was even further NW then the OP EURO. Very nice NW lean on a number of EPS members including the control near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Very nice NW lean on a number of EPS members including the control near the BM. Can you post an image of the EPS members I am having an issue locating it? I can only see the mean SLP placement. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Can you post an image of the EPS members I am having an issue locating it? I can only see the mean SLP placement. Thanks Spend your own money and stop begging every board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 SREF jumped NW/wetter (mainly round 2) with some individuals even suggesting mixing/ice to the city. smell some hot NAM runs coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I know it's off-topic, but what in the heck is the Euro cooking up for next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, RDRY said: I know it's off-topic, but what in the heck is the Euro cooking up for next weekend? Looks like the grand finally. Mixed for me on that. Tree fell on house 2 storms ago from all the snow and lost power 10 inches. 9.5 inches in the last storm. If this one is another 6 to 12 may be for mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Backside energy looking real good on the 18Z NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18z NAM is super amped at 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, Enigma said: Spend your own money and stop begging every board. just curious - what does full Euro access cost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 You can see the confluence trying to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, RU848789 said: just curious - what does full Euro access cost? Less than $25 a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I'm familiar with Monte Carlo simulations and ensemble approaches to gauging sensitivity, but not in meteorology, so I have a couple of questions. Correct me if I'm wrong, but in a situation like this, we want the ensemble mean (as defined by either the low pressure track or the axis of most snowfall) to "lean" NW of the actual operational mean (and want the control, the low resolution run within the ensemble, to mimic the actual high resolution op run, so that we know there are no errors being introduced due to resolution issues), which would indicate that the actual track and snowfall are more likely than not to be NW of the actual op output. And we probably don't want that "lean" to be due to a few large outliers, which would skew the mean too much. In this case, to me, the max snowfall axis from about Trenton to Asbury Park appears to be significantly NW of the max snowfall axis on the op, which runs more from Wilmington to Toms River, indicating that it's likely the op is too far to the SE. Do I have that right? Also, given we're doing a bunch of runs with initial condition perturbations in the ensembles, one would expect the absolute amounts of snow along the max axis to be moderately to significantly less than for the op (as many runs are well away from the mean/center), but we'd also the expect a spread of snowfall amounts that is likely well beyond the actual precip shield we're likely to see in reality, such that one should not use that spread to estimate where the precip will extend to. I think some do that thinking, hey, the ensemble mean shows 2" all the way up to location x, when that's only because of the variance in the data about that mean. Thanks in advance for any input... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Less than $25 a month Wow, that's not bad at all - will have to look into that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, RU848789 said: Wow, that's not bad at all - will have to look into that... https://www.stormvistawxmodels.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Trough goes negative tilt at hr 51, first storm still slides to the South, however all signs at H5 point towards a more Northerly track for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: just curious - what does full Euro access cost? I'm sure this link has been posted before... https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ecmwf/ecmwf_usa.php Likely not full access though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 985mb 75 Miles E of VA Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Moving NNE, moderate precip makes it North of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 984mb East of Cape May, still moving North. Looks like a wet run for at least Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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