MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Stormlover74 said: The 2nd wave is pretty far west in the gfs but doesn't get the precip up here Yep Curious to see the Euro after the gfs ticked west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 You guys are funny.... wild model swings is a clear indication that the final outcome is far from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: You guys are funny.... wild model swings is a clear indication that the final outcome is far from reality. Yea I dont get the definitive statements. I would say that things are looking less likely for a moderate or high impact storm but still have some time to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, allgame830 said: You guys are funny.... wild model swings is a clear indication that the final outcome is far from reality. We saw wild model swings with the last storm but the writing was on the wall that it would miss us to the east. Just goes to show how hard it is to get a snowstorm in March in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: We saw wild model swings with the last storm but the writing was on the wall that it would miss us to the east. Just goes to show how hard it is to get a snowstorm in March. I've had back to back years with 8"+ storms in March and places 25 miles away have had over 3 feet this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Usually when the red taggers are quiet, it means they don’t like the threat either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: Usually when the red taggers are quiet, it means they don’t like the threat either. Seems like there's a positive correlation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, allgame830 said: You guys are funny.... wild model swings is a clear indication that the final outcome is far from reality. The problem is, you need to examine the goal posts within these swings. On one end you have a moderate hit from 78 South (excluding some of the less reliable guidance) and on the other end you have a complete whiff. My point is, even the wettest guidance isn’t that great, which is usually a tell tail sign. Same thing occurred with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GGEM looks like the GFS and Euro, mostly a miss with both waves. I just watched the GGEM color loop, and it clearly gets significant snow up into northern Jersey on wednesday. Not as extreme as last night's run, but far from a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The problem is, you need to examine the goal posts within these swings. On one end you have a moderate hit from 78 South (excluding some of the less reliable guidance) and on the other end you have a complete whiff. My point is, even the wettest guidance isn’t that great, which is usually a tell tail sign. Same thing occurred with the last storm. Yea I see your point... but the second wave isn’t until Wednesday that is plenty of time to work somethings out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, snow1 said: Usually when the red taggers are quiet, it means they don’t like the threat either. Red taggers are generally more quiet in this subforum overall. The New England and MidAtlantic are bigger regions, but there are much more red taggers posting and interacting with others in their forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The UKMET is west with wave 2. I believe its probably still mostly a miss except E LI and CT but its closer than 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 My latest thoughts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The GEFS has some amped members for wave 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I will be ready to throw in the towel after the 12z runs tomorrow but things are not looking good at the moment. But with the significant changes that have occurred on the models in short lead times I think its a good idea to wait a bit longer before calling this one a done deal IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 So. Is the GEFS further northwest or southeast of 6z? Or held serve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Larrye , my post yesterday said that it was way too early to call this storm either way. I understand that there are many things that need to be taken into consideration and I am not attacking you or what you wrote in any way. That said yesterday you posted " Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No." so my question is would this still be your thought or do yesterday slight trends or the overnight guidance come into play ? I still think this could go either way there is still lots of time but we do have something to track . Again, it's a matter of probabilities. Is it too early to call? It's always too early to call something this close. Have there have been some changes (or should we say "fluctuations") in some of the other models since I posted? Yes. But by and large, if you stand by the NAM with no other models verifying a similar solution ... especially outside its sweet spot in terms of range ... and then you have to get a storm to thread a needle (recall that sun angle and moderate airmasses become more of a problem in March for significant accums in NYC) ... IMHO ... it's not likely that we will get a storm to dump significant accums this week. Could that change? Sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: So. Is the GEFS further northwest or southeast of 6z? Or held serve? More or less the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 From 12z today to 18z later on today to 00z tonight the pendulum will swing back and forth between euphoria and despair, it always does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: More or less the same. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The whole UKIE setup makes no sense to me really. It’s either wrong on wave 1 or wrong on wave 2 so to me it’s a toss and the Euro might do just about anything. My hunch is the Euro goes flatter again with wave 1 and stronger with wave 2 since almost everything made that attempt at 12Z even if they didn’t exactly show that in their end results at the surface or in QPF. The UKIE is close to doing what has only occurred two times before with wave 2. 6 inches in DCA and 6 in BOS from the same system but not in NYC. The QPF didn’t show it for BOS but the upper levels certainly did. 11/87 and 1/25/87 are those two cases. That alone is reason for a toss since scenarios that rare are hard to duplicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I will be ready to throw in the towel after the 12z runs tomorrow but things are not looking good at the moment. But with the significant changes that have occurred on the models in short lead times I think its a good idea to wait a bit longer before calling this one a done deal IMO. Agreed. Disappointing runs for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Agreed. Disappointing runs for our area. Lol where did all this doom and gloom come from? The 12Z runs were mostly improved for the most part. The one exception being the GGEM which took a step back after being really far west last night. I'm tossing the NAM which is way different from the other models at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 8 minutes ago, snow1 said: Agreed. Disappointing runs for our area. What ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just looked at all the models. All go due east after forming hence our lack of precip. Just did see GEFS. 8 numbers get appreciable precip in. Not impossible but at some point we want to see at least 1 model hit us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: I've had back to back years with 8"+ storms in March and places 25 miles away have had over 3 feet this month You aren't in the city though. I'm just a little east of you and have not had more than 6 with one possible exception in 2015 since about 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro is further northwest for the 2nd wave and gives the coast moderate precip with below freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro is also further north with wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is further northwest for the 2nd wave and gives the coast moderate precip with below freezing temps. And everyone runs for the hills because they aren’t correcting fast enough for them... I say give it time... the ENS are very clear on this! Also will be interesting if the 12z EURO ENS are even further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: And everyone runs for the hills because they aren’t correcting fast enough for them... I say give it time... the ENS are very clear on this! Also will be interesting if the EURO ENS are even further NW. How much of a correction are we talking about with todays run? 50 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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