sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 How much more of a shift north for wave 1 do we wish to see so NYC gets a healthy accumulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 So someone correct me if I am wrong here... would a stronger first wave help in aiding the second wave to be more amped as well since they are all close together bc it wouldn’t allow the heights on the EC to relax?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, allgame830 said: So someone correct me if I am wrong here... would a stronger first wave help in aiding the second wave to be more amped as well since they are all close together bc it wouldn’t allow the heights on the EC to relax?? It depends. If the first wave is very slow, it won't hurt. If it's fast and races out ahead of it, however, it will depress heights. That's why wave spacing is so important. If they are close enough to phase that's good. If they're far enough away where the first doesn't depress the height field beyond the second wave being able to recover it that's good. If they're somewhere in between, well that's not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: It depends. If the first wave is very slow, it won't hurt. If it's fast and races out ahead of it, however, it will depress heights. That's why wave spacing is so important. If they are close enough to phase that's good. If they're far enough away where the first doesn't depress the height field beyond recovery that's good. If they're somewhere in between, well that's not good. Well that was sorta my point... a closer second wave approach would help help in this situation because the heigh field wouldn’t then become progressive in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherbear5 said: It depends. If the first wave is very slow, it won't hurt. If it's fast and races out ahead of it, however, it will depress heights. That's why wave spacing is so important. If they are close enough to phase that's good. If they're far enough away where the first doesn't depress the height field beyond the second wave being able to recover it that's good. If they're somewhere in between, well that's not good. Yep and this is illustrated by the 12Z Nam. The lead wave slowed down, but it was not slow enough and allowed for heights off the EC to dampen. This led to the 12Z NAM being further either east for the second wave. We need it to slow down some more so it can phase more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ace said: Yep and this is illustrated by the 12Z Nam. The lead wave slowed down, but it was not slow enough and allowed for heights off the EC to dampen. This led to the 12Z NAM being further either east for the second wave. We need it to slow down some more so it can phase more. Gotcha and that was what the CMC was doing last night correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: Gotcha and that was what the CMC was doing last night correct? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Ace said: Yep and this is illustrated by the 12Z Nam. The lead wave slowed down, but it was not slow enough and allowed for heights off the EC to dampen. This led to the 12Z NAM being further either east for the second wave. We need it to slow down some more so it can phase more. The NAM came pretty close to an epic run. The two waves came close to a phase but when it didn't occur the heights were dampened and OTS she went. If that lead wave were to slow down a bit more...BOOM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Is there any known bias with NAM speeding up waves to much.. just wondering? Also where is the current location of the 1st wave right is it in a good sampling area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Is there any known bias with NAM speeding up waves to much.. just wondering? I'm not sure. It could be that the NAM is just outside its range when this possible phase occurs. Could the NAM be correct with a close but no cigar solution? Sure but with the CMC and RGEM showing a bomb its definitely something we should closely monitor in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Checking the black and white 12Z RGEM maps, H5 at 48 hours looks completely different from the NAM from what I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 15 minutes ago, Ace said: Checking the black and white 12Z RGEM maps, H5 at 48 hours looks completely different from the NAM from what I can see. Assuming different in a good way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Assuming different in a good way?? Probably. Looks pretty similar to its 6z run which crushed us. Unlike the Nam it does not slow down the lead wave and it hangs back the second wave more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12Z RGEM - it gives us most of that Tues night/Wed, pellets mixing in too. the tuesday part has a sharp cutoff S of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 FWIW, dewpoints around the city are currently 10-20 degrees colder/drier than 12Z guidance has them. This will play a big role in how far north precip makes it Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: FWIW, dewpoints around the city are currently 10-20 degrees colder/drier than 12Z guidance has them. This will play a big role in how far north precip makes it Tuesday. Will that mean hours of virga until the atmosphere saturates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, sferic said: Will that mean hours of virga until the atmosphere saturates? hours of virga and then it doesn't saturate at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 4 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z RGEM - it gives us most of that Tues night/Wed, pellets mixing in too. the tuesday part has a sharp cutoff S of the city. The storm is not even done at this juncture. Tremendous amount of potential with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: 12Z RGEM - it gives us most of that Tues night/Wed, pellets mixing in too. the tuesday part has a sharp cutoff S of the city. Wait a sec that’s most likely for the Tuesday into Wed??? How could it be so drastically different then the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The 12Z GFS is much closer at H5 to the RGEM than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ace said: The 12Z GFS is much closer at H5 to the RGEM than the NAM. It's also closer for wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's also closer for wave 2 We're running out of time. Suppression is the most likely outcome for both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: We're running out of time. Suppression is the most likely outcome for both waves. Agreed. Only the cmc shows a hit and we all know it’s usually always wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12z GGEM looks like the GFS and Euro, mostly a miss with both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z GGEM looks like the GFS and Euro, mostly a miss with both waves. A miss from what area on North , I84 or I78? or even further south such as Atlantic City on North ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I highly doubt anyone North of 195 in NJ sees much snow out of this, and real accumulations will probably be relegated to the higher terrain in PA, MD and Western VA/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, sferic said: A miss from what area on North , I84 or I78? or even further south such as Atlantic City on North ? 78 South for some snow, you really need to be South of the AC Expressway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 11 minutes ago, snow1 said: Agreed. Only the cmc shows a hit and we all know it’s usually always wrong. So the 2nd wave can't come further west ? Should we stop tracking .? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, snow1 said: Agreed. Only the cmc shows a hit and we all know it’s usually always wrong. Gfs was closer with wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: So the 2nd wave can't come further west ? Should we stop tracking .? The 2nd wave is pretty far west in the gfs but doesn't get the precip up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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