MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 00z GGEM is way North. 2”+ LE in NYC and 1”+ well into Upstate NY. That's both waves combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 55 minutes ago, Enigma said: SLP on nam is moving north at 84 hr Looks NE from 81 to 84, to me, aimed right at the BM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 German is sexy with wave 2 Coastal and inland snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 German is nice 4-8 event black/white Canadian images look like a massive storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Enigma said: German is nice 4-8 event black/white Canadian images look like a massive storm 12+ for the coast and inland areas with more snow next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, Enigma said: German is nice 4-8 event black/white Canadian images look like a massive storm Good trends tonight. So either the models are keying on wave 2, or we could be trending towards a wave 1 and 2 merger. Looks like the GFS is having its typical SE bias at this stage of the game. Now lets see if the EURO shows it then I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Looking at the H5 progression on Tropical Tidbits for the Canadian, it looks a bit suspect. However, considering the overall trend of the backside energy, it may be somewhat close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Well.... this ramped up pretty quickly... as someone pointed out the NAM might have been decent with second wave as well since it was moving north at end of run.. so great looks so far tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Gfs has another snowstorm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The only thing that is clear is that 12z consensus was nothing but all NWP having an inaccurate read on the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 The UKMET is way north with wave 1 but misses NYC. Has snow to about PHL-BLM albeit not much. Wave 2 appears to miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 If the first wave keeps weaking then the second wave would be stronger and further west. Baroclincity would remain on the east coast, instead of being disminished by the first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Mitchel Volk said: If the first wave keeps wearing then the second wave would be stronger and further west. Baroclincity would remain on the east coast, instead of being disminished by the first wave. So are you implying the further north the first wave is the better it would be for the second? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 42 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has another snowstorm next weekend So did the Euro at 12Z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 My favorite model cmc has us with over a foot of snow in the next 100hrs this is trending good. The best model out there is the cmc without a doubt. I really don’t care for icon gfs or the euro. The ukmet not having anything for us is concerning but it has been blurping lately so let’s see by tomorrow afternoon we should really see some good trends or bad trends and ascertain most of the future weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 00z CMC shifts NORTH, bringing HEAVY snow to NYC! Sunday & Monday will be very interesting to see how this plays out. Funny, we are all worried about March suppressing a storm, in addition when the clear seasonal trend has been north, so I wont be surprised if we get a semi-cutter in the end! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 And now the 00z ICON joins the party for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro looks like it keyed on the second wave and it brings it up the coast. A bit too easy so it Scrapes us but definitely going towards the cmc. Watch cmc win again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meteoropoulos Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: Euro looks like it keyed on the second wave and it brings it up the coast. Scrapes us but definitely going towards the cmc That's exactly what we want at this stage. Keeps the heights off the coast up, and consolidates all the energy into the second wave which would naturally want it to come more west. And I like the subtle shift north, given that 3-4 days is more than enough time to bring the EURO back west enough for a big hit for NYC. It is seriously our turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 No posts in 5 hours ? Where is everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No posts in 5 hours ? Where is everyone lol St. Patty's Day....everyone is tired. It's not just a holiday for the Irish anymore. Maybe it never was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No posts in 5 hours ? Where is everyone lol Snow I am just getting moving myself and after looking at the posts and guidance from last night I expected more posts and info myself ,maybe everyone else had a rough Paddys Day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 We have seen models do this before with numerous storms. First storm trends weaker over time so the second one can steal the show. The hope is that we see more amplitude with the second low the next few days and it comes further NW for a nice snow event in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We have seen models do this before with numerous storms. First storm trends weaker over time so the second one can steal the show. The hope is that we see more amplitude with the second low the next few days and it comes further NW for a nice snow event in later runs. It rarely doesn’t screw us either. The only way that scenario ever really works out is if the NAO is negative like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 22 hours ago, larrye said: It's really very simple. Weather forecasting is a matter not of completely objective black and white exactness - it is a matter of probabilities for certain solutions and those probabilities become a little more reliable as one comes within less and less time of the event. Climatology also has to be taken into consideration. Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No. Larrye , my post yesterday said that it was way too early to call this storm either way. I understand that there are many things that need to be taken into consideration and I am not attacking you or what you wrote in any way. That said yesterday you posted " Right now, people who are willing to face the facts and not wishcast, are able to see that the probabilities for a significant snow event in our area have significantly decreased and would seem to be unlikely. Is it still possible? Sure. Likely? No." so my question is would this still be your thought or do yesterday slight trends or the overnight guidance come into play ? I still think this could go either way there is still lots of time but we do have something to track . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I really like this look at 96 hr and 90 hr pretty much the same.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, allgame830 said: I really like this look at 96 hr and 90 hr pretty much the same.... Gefs is also wetter than the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is also wetter than the 0z run Yes it did but it still has a sharper cutoff but that could change in further runs. The EURO ENS look far much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gefs is also wetter than the 0z run Hello. Did the GEFS move north of 0z GEFS? Did the 0z EPS move north of 12z.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Hello. Did the GEFS move north of 0z GEFS? Did the 0z EPS move north of 12z.? We are talking about the 2nd wave 1st wave looks done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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