Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:43 AM, Ericjcrash said: I prefer 18z, broader 2" swath and cooler. BL temps aren't so kind. Fwiw HRRRRRR absolutely torches the BL Expand Common sense would disagree with the 2m temps on the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 This was certainly not a good run for many folks on the board. There is some excessive optimism in here tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:48 AM, Enigma said: This was certainly not a good run for many folks on the board. There is some excessive optimism in here tonight. Expand Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:43 AM, Ericjcrash said: I prefer 18z, broader 2" swath and cooler. BL temps aren't so kind. Fwiw HRRRRRR absolutely torches the BL Expand Surface temperatures on the HRRR????????? Lol come on man we have a dry cold airmass with low dew points with northeast winds during the storm. I doubt we see those temps the HRRR is advertising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:48 AM, Enigma said: This was certainly not a good run for many folks on the board. There is some excessive optimism in here tonight. Expand How do you figure that? The run seemed fine for many and actually got a lot better for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I don't see mix precip unless you live south of I-195. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Hi-Res NAM way north and wet as well...looking good for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:51 AM, Ace said: Surface temperatures on the HRRR????????? Lol come on man we have a dry cold airmass with low dew points with northeast winds during the storm. I doubt we see those temps the HRRR is advertising. Expand Not that we won't wetbulb tomorrow, but it's 38 at this hour in C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:58 AM, Zelocita Weather said: Hi-Res NAM way north and wet as well...looking good for all Expand Talk about crawl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:48 AM, Enigma said: This was certainly not a good run for many folks on the board. There is some excessive optimism in here tonight. Expand Yes. People have the snow goggles on again. Early on it's warm aloft and later on the BL warms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM is further east compared to the Nam Nam has been jumping around a lot RGEM has 20 hours of snow after 2-3 hours of sleet for the coast Great hit for the coast and inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Cherry on top of the 3k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:58 AM, Zelocita Weather said: Hi-Res NAM way north and wet as well...looking good for all Expand I went bullish for this, it better happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 NAM = snow gun for 24 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What’s precip look like on RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 2:59 AM, Enigma said: Not that we won't wetbulb tomorrow, but it's 38 at this hour in C NJ. Expand Surface temperatures are a bit high in our area at the moment, but the HRRR has temps for some people on here at 18Z tomorrow in the upper 30's! The cold surface temperatures after the initial burst of precipitation tomorrow I am fairly confident about. Of course mid level temperatures and precipitation rates are much more questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:03 AM, Zelocita Weather said: What’s precip look like on RGEM? Expand 2-3 hours of sleet and then moderate to heavy snow for 15 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 RGEM has 10-12 inches for the coast and slightly more on LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 In all honesty the mid level presentation looks as good to me as any late season storm, so this is one that should produce areawide I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:05 AM, Snow88 said: 2-3 hours of sleet and then moderate to heavy snow for 15 hours. Expand Where are you looking? TT still hasn't loaded it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:05 AM, Snow88 said: 2-3 hours of sleet and then moderate to heavy snow for 15 hours. Expand While this is true, comparing it to the 18z I don't see the super heavy rates the older run had... seems to me like it may have cut back QPF wise, though we won't know for sure until we get the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:07 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: Where are you looking? TT still hasn't loaded it. Expand http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:06 AM, Snow88 said: RGEM has 10-12 inches for the coast and slightly more on LI Expand So it decreased. 10-12" at 10:1? If so figure 6-8" middle of the storm the BL is bad on it too. (Only panels that fully loaded on TT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:07 AM, weatherbear5 said: While this is true, comparing it to the 18z I don't see the super heavy rates the older run had... seems to me like it may have cut back QPF wise, though we won't know for sure until we get the map Expand Stormvista snow map has 10-12 for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:10 AM, Ericjcrash said: So it decreased. 10-12" at 10:1? If so figure 6-8" middle of the storm the BL is bad on it too. (Only panels that fully loaded on TT) Expand You have been on a roll tonight being a negative nancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Seeing the RGEM east of the Nam is encouraging. People shouldnt freak out if we see some sleet tomorrow morning. It will change to snow and accumulate. Should be a fun storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:11 AM, Snow88 said: You have been on a roll tonight being a negative nancy Expand Someone has to be realistic. People throwing around 18 and 20" figures like it's boxing day or 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:12 AM, Snow88 said: Seeing the RGEM east of the Nam is encouraging. People shouldnt freak out if we see some sleet tomorrow morning. It will change to snow and accumulate. Should be a fun storm. Expand RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:13 AM, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Expand Dude, let the storm play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 3:13 AM, Ericjcrash said: RGEM showed NYC in subsidence too. Not good. Expand You need a nap. That being said, RGEM definitely not preferable, though would still be a great storm for this late in the season. It doesn't have the deform band as far west this run. Crazy that there's still this much a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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