purduewx80 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:22 AM, Mancave25 said: What does tssn stand for Expand thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: It will not average 10:1 Expand In my area it will. The latest from Mt. Holly mention 11/12-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: It will not average 10:1 Expand Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event. Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even higher. take it up with NWS Upton https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Despite what the models are saying, is it possible for the heavy snow to move further NW and N? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:24 AM, ForestHillWx said: In my area it will. The latest from Mt. Holly mention 11/12-1. Expand Good luck with that. At night, maybe, even if the BL is cold that doesn't mean high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:25 AM, Doorman said: Unlike previous storms, this airmass is colder and drier and with the onset of the moderate to heavy snowfall, temperatures will likely remain at or below freezing for much of the event. Thus, expect a higher snowfall ratio, closer to 10:1 or even higher. take it up with NWS Upton https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Expand Yeah, still waiting on my 20" of snow this month they said I'd have. They even increase totals mid storm in the middle of an obvious bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:26 AM, White Gorilla said: Despite what the models are saying, is it possible for the heavy snow to move further NW and N? Expand don't get your hopes up on that http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrsfc.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:26 AM, White Gorilla said: Despite what the models are saying, is it possible for the heavy snow to move further NW and N? Expand Yes. All it would take is a 30 mile jog N to get most of the HV in 12"+. 18z model data has shown an increase N. Hopefully 0z can continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:30 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, still waiting on my 20" of snow this month they said I'd have. They even increase totals mid storm in the middle of an obvious bust. Expand Understood ...but hold on to the sour grapes, till after we done on this one low end amount at 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:33 AM, Doorman said: Understood ...but hold on the sour grapes, till after we done on this one Expand He's always like this with every storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:33 AM, Doorman said: Understood ...but hold on the sour grapes, till after we done on this one Expand They are just so bullish immediately after being burned. There forecasting something is literally unprecedented in NYC history. Calling for greater than 10:1 ratios with a borderline BL and less than stellar mid and upper level temps is suspect. If They cited they believe there will be more liquid than guidance suggests I could get behind that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:37 AM, Snow88 said: He's always like this with every storm lol Expand Well he is kinda right. NWS has been intransigent in the face of being incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:37 AM, Snow88 said: He's always like this with every storm lol Expand Yeah, and what did you get last week after being so confident it wouldn't be slop? There's reason why NYC has NEVER had a 12" storm this late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Based on the temps between 700-850mb I would guess ratios are 10 to 1 most likely. May be 8-9:1 for a time 14-18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:39 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, and what did you get last week after being so confident it wouldn't be slop? There's reason why NYC has NEVER had a 12" storm this late... Expand You do realize this will be the coldest out of the 3 others ? The reason why we missed out on the other 3 was banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:21 AM, Ericjcrash said: It will not average 10:1 Expand Really? Read Mt. Holly 4pm write up. 8-10:1 in city area, and 11-12:1 interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:41 AM, Snow88 said: You do realize this will be the coldest out of the 3 others ? The reason why we missed out on the other 3 was banding. Expand I do, also another week further into spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 where will mr. chrsitie ride this one out???? http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/03/phil_murphy_declares_a_state_of_emergency_ahead_of_new_snowstorms_set_to_hit_nj.html#incart_breaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:37 AM, Ericjcrash said: They are just so bullish immediately after being burned. There forecasting something is literally unprecedented in NYC history. Calling for greater than 10:1 ratios with a borderline BL and less than stellar mid and upper level temps is suspect. If They cited they believe there will be more liquid than guidance suggests I could get behind that. Expand We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks. "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air with tons of mositure so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these. Usually I'm on the conservative side like you but this storm has a good chance to deliver historical late March totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:44 AM, sussexcountyobs said: Really? Read Mt. Holly 4pm write up. 8-10:1 in city area, and 11-12:1 interior. Expand Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:47 AM, kat5hurricane said: We had 80 degrees in February, we had 2 hurricanes up here in a couple year span and we've had 4 huge nor'easters in the span of the last couple of weeks. "Unprecedented" events are the new normal around here in this decade so 10:1 ratios in a late March storm will certainly not be shocking. The ground is cold, the airmass is cold, there will be a strong storm offshore drawing in its own cold air so if NYC gets into banding 12+ inches plus is certainly possible. Climo gets thrown out in situations like these Expand Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:39 AM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, and what did you get last week after being so confident it wouldn't be slop? There's reason why NYC has NEVER had a 12" storm this late... Expand you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I hope my old stomping grounds really cash in and I think they will (NE Bergen County). The last nor'easter was for us up here with about 18" and more just west of here. This one is your storm with a nice cold airmass in place. Only expecting around 6in here and that might be pushing it. Either way this is looking like an historic storm for spring in NYC and points south and west. Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:49 AM, uncle W said: you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ Expand Newark and NYC are so close to each other, they have the same climate and if one can get over a foot certainly the other can. History is against us, but it is not impossible and while I would not be shocked we see a lower end storm of 6 or so( many stations going with 6-12 ) I would not be shocked if it went the other way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:22 AM, Mancave25 said: What does tssn stand for Expand It’s the security code for the keypad to heaven’s gate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Once again because it appears it’s going to be heavily dynamic and banded there will probably be a screw zone. If I had to guess right now the screw zone will be western LI but it could be as far west as Queens and Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:48 AM, Ericjcrash said: Philly is further inland first of all, less UHI, yeah Sussex can maybe get 11:1(highly doubt it even there during daylight). I don't care about there. NYC will IMO be 8:1 at best. Expand 24 hours ago you said it wouldn't snow much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What time does the snow get cranking down the shore? I'm north coastal Monmouth County. Any chance at a foot down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:41 PM, donsutherland1 said: One map is a range. The other is a point estimate. One can choose either. Expand TY Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 On 3/21/2018 at 12:49 AM, uncle W said: you have to go 150 years for the last time NYC had 12" on the 21st...1958 just missed with 11.8" on the 21st...Newark got over a foot... 1868... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-5/ http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1868-03-23/ed-1/seq-8/ Expand How much of NYC was farmland 150 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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