NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand Well, the Euro got over an inch of LE into the NYC proper area. It may have cut totals north of the city, but it raised them in the city itself. If that is what the 18z NAM showed, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand Too close for comfort up here. The precip made it further north than earlier forecasts for today, so hopefully that holds true for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand It recovers with a 3rd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand It recovers with a 3rd low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand How far North ???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Intense banding feature does rotate NW over time, but if you end up on the wrong side of this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 the 18z NAM is 2-3" LE over the city.... calm down everyone!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 nam is 21" wit 10:1 ratio and 17" with Kuchera for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks wetter than 12z for immediate NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:31 PM, triniiphone said: wrong Expand On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 NAM wetter and more NW than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:07 PM, NJwx85 said: The NAM is a little bit North of the Euro, but wow that is close. Expand What’s preventing northern and western precip expansion? Confluence? Placement of the SLP doesn’t look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed. If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 My only concern TBH is that the Euro ensembles were so miserable. Otherwise I would not bat an eye about the Op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 18z 3k NAM pivots the CCB all the way back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 There is some uncertainty with the ECMWF solution pointing to lower liquid equivalent amounts, but it appears to be an outlier from the respect of a weaker closed low off the New England coast by Wednesday night. The exact placement of the heavy snow band is also a difficult thing to pinpoint, but a well defined deformation zone and frontogenesis to the NW of the low track points to this signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3km NAM is weird, crushes the interior. Massive discrepancies with the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:37 PM, snywx said: 18z 3k NAM pivots the CCB all the way back here. Expand The 3k’s bank account is empty but that doesn’t stop it from writing those checks out storm after storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:35 PM, Nibor said: What’s preventing northern and western precip expansion? Confluence? Placement of the SLP doesn’t look too bad. Expand A further offshore track of the ULL, the heaviest is always going to be just a bit to the NW of where that low tracks. Yesterday is was about 50 miles closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:35 PM, NJwx85 said: For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed. If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything. Expand The 18z has actually backed amounts in northern sections and increased southern sections of Orange County from the 12z run. 12k nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Yeah 3k NAM is much better for those to the North and West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Keep in mind, fantasy Closer to reality The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:35 PM, SnowGoose69 said: My only concern TBH is that the Euro ensembles were so miserable. Otherwise I would not bat an eye about the Op run Expand 3k NAM is really far north. This is a forecasters nightmare. However, this distribution looks amazingly similar to Jan 2016 on a lesser scale. Even with the Sharp cut off I was north of the band and got a consolation prize of 11.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:55 PM, NJwx85 said: Keep in mind, fantasy Closer to reality The truth is probably somewhere in between, but I definitely wouldn't go with 15" in Manhattan. Expand their is a big difference between lower manhattan and upper manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 JFK has PLRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:35 PM, NJwx85 said: For those cheerleading the 18z NAM, my point was that it has the same sharp cutoff that the Euro has to the North, except that it's a bit further North. And initially it didn't look like anything was going to make it North of the city at all, but luckily that changed. If the NAM is even 30-40 miles too far North, nobody North of the city is seeing much of anything. Expand Except your post made it seem like it was worse for the whole subforum. Hence the reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Upton now has 14 inches for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 @NJwx85 could you post the 12km accum map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Groupel in Massapequa, NY right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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