mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Almost an inch of precip falls by 18Z for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Oh neptune, complete wreckage for I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:14 PM, tempestatis014 said: Is there some dry air working in Central Jersey? Is that why the snow is having difficulty filling in? Expand yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Not the greatest run for NW sections, but much improved over 06z as expected. The strongest banding signals have shifted away from the interior and more towards LI and C/SN NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Through 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:19 PM, NJwx85 said: Not the greatest run for NW sections, but much improved over 06z as expected. The strongest banding signals have shifted away from the interior and more towards LI and C/SN NJ Expand This run seems a lot more realistic than 6z or last night's 0z but the nam has been waffling so we'll have to wait a few more runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:20 PM, tempestatis014 said: NAM 3km looks warmer too Expand Warmer for who? Since you live in a different sub forum, it would be helpful to clarify what you're posting about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 12:18 PM, tempestatis014 said: What site did you get that from? Expand ftp://public.dhe.ibm.com/systems/i/weather/live/dtwx.html This is the main site. Deep Thunder not loading for me for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:22 PM, Stormlover74 said: This run seems a lot more realistic than 6z or last night's 0z but the nam has been waffling so we'll have to wait a few more runs Expand Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nice to see the NAM back on board after its classic WTF run; hopefully the rest of the 12z suite holds firm (Besides the Euro). Still think Upton is crazy for that 12-16 call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:26 PM, Gravity Wave said: Nice to see the NAM back on board after its classic WTF run; hopefully the rest of the 12z suite holds firm (Besides the Euro). Still think Upton is crazy for that 12-16 call. Expand 6-12 is a better call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:25 PM, tempestatis014 said: For Ocean County Southward. Looks like it turns to rain earlier. Expand When? It's only through tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Expand That's impressive stuff. If that had staying power wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:25 PM, tempestatis014 said: For Ocean County Southward. Looks like it turns to rain earlier. Expand Okay, just a friendly FYI Nobody here cares about Ocean County and points Southward. By saying it's warmer, you're actually misleading people that live here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1.2" - 2.0" mostly/all snow, nice call from NWS on 12-18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:26 PM, Snow88 said: 6-12 is a better call Expand I'm thinking 5-10 for Manhattan and inner parts of Queens and Brooklyn, 6-12 for the rest of the City. CNJ jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12k NAM is a huge hit in NYC and on LI. AOA 1.5 inches from the city eastward, .5 inches up to the NW tip of NJ. brief, sneaky isothermal layer over parts of LI around 850mb around 15z, but I'd say the lions share of that is snow, maybe briefly mixed with sleet. Surface temps plenty cold as well edit: also, idk what I was looking at earlier that told me it would be mainly a late day storm... must have been exhaustion from being up through all the 00z runs and for the 6z NAM and GFS lol starts in earnest before noon on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:26 PM, mikem81 said: Kuchera Expand This almost matches Mt Holly’s map to a T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 3k NAM still has a wicked cutoff over the interior. @UlsterCountySnowZ, @Animal and @snywx close to smoking cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 And WC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Expand On 3/20/2018 at 2:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Expand On 3/20/2018 at 2:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Some pretty intense mid-level lift over almost the whole area tomorrow afternoon. It's too bad that models have this stalling further East now. Expand playing devil's advocate here...what about climatology and the sun angle if we get a foot ,, that would be the latest nyc ever got a foot of snow..and we are talking about decades when their was no climate change going back to `1869... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Kind of a cool new feature for the 3k NAM, showing <0.25 mile visibility tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:29 PM, weatherbear5 said: 12k NAM is a huge hit in NYC and on LI. AOA 1.5 inches from the city eastward, .5 inches up to the NW tip of NJ. brief, sneaky isothermal layer over parts of LI around 850mb around 15z, but I'd say the lions share of that is snow, maybe briefly mixed with sleet. Surface temps plenty cold as well edit: also, idk what I was looking at earlier that told me it would be mainly a late day storm... must have been exhaustion from being up through all the 00z runs and for the 6z NAM and GFS lol starts in earnest before noon on the NAM Expand 5-6 am through about 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:32 PM, nycwinter said: playing devil's advocate here...what about climatology and the sun angle if we get a foot ,, that would be the latest nyc ever got a foot of snow..and we are talking about decades when their was no climate change going back to `1869... Expand Until 2011 it never snowed in October before either. There's always a first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Thunder has been added to point and click. With that much lift, it's certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Tornado watch for Northern and Central FL We will have to see how widespread the activity is down there, and if it can help to pump the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 2:34 PM, NJwx85 said: Kind of a cool new feature for the 3k NAM, showing <0.25 mile visibility tomorrow. Expand lol I hope this feature is more accurate than the one that was showing 6"/hour snowfall rates over the city during the bum cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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