Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 We may have to consider putting "Snow88" on suicide watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 06z 3K NAM has less than .5 inches QPF from TTN southward through 00z Thursday. Absolutely insane 6 hour swing. Makes me wonder if there was some bad data ingested, either in the 00z or 6z run... that being said, it would fit the more early occlusion look of the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning here for 8-14" of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 06z 3km NAM is even worse lol.. Drastic is an understatement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:35 AM, Rjay said: Calling @donsutherland1. This isn't accurate but I'm way too tired to dig up your stats. Expand What’s not accurate? Here’s the top five: 3/12-14/1888 = 20.9” 3/07-09/1941 = 18.1” 3/03-05/1960 = 14.6” 3/01-02/1914 = 14.5” 3/16-16/1896 = 12.0” Number 10 = 3/02/1896 = 10.0” 4/03-04/1915 = 10.2” would be #10 if it’s March or later storms. EDIT: Here’s the link to resource used to tabulate list: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Winter storm Warning for NYC 12-16 inches of sleet / Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Its confusing times like this that I wish we were in the middle of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks as though the RGEM is still a very good hit, though it's tough to tell from the B+W Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:59 AM, weatherbear5 said: Looks as though the RGEM is still a very good hit, though it's tough to tell from the B+W Maps Expand Agreed. incredible difference in qpf field between NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:59 AM, weatherbear5 said: Looks as though the RGEM is still a very good hit, though it's tough to tell from the B+W Maps Expand Way more tucked in than the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 That was a crazy change from the NAM and you have to toss it for the moment. The Euro has had a SE bias with the last few events so the NWS may be playing into that idea somewhat because even the ensembles would only argue for around 6 inches. The totals they have look somewhat high but the NAM for now I think is a toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Rgem has heavy snow for the coast and just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 25/10 out this way. Impressive for mid march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 German is tucked in but then hits a brick wall and glides east Most snow on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 One last observation is that the timing of the heaviest precip has shifted towards the latter part of the day, as opposed to really getting going early on or midday... now looks like a late day and Wednesday evening timing for the heaviest precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 8:49 AM, ncforecaster89 said: What’s not accurate? Here’s the top five: 3/12-14/1888 = 20.9” 3/07-09/1941 = 18.1” 3/03-05/1960 = 14.6” 3/01-02/1914 = 14.5” 3/16-16/1896 = 12.0” Number 10 = 3/02/1896 = 10.0” 4/03-04/1915 = 10.2” would be #10 if it’s March or later storms. EDIT: Here’s the link to resource used to tabulate list: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/xmacis.php?wfo=okx Expand I posted this yesterday. Of course there are many March snowstorms greater than the ones I listed below and you listed them above. This was just the 8 biggest after the spring equinox. I think that's why some were confused. There are only eight snowfalls of 6 inches or greater after the spring equinox in New York City. Also interesting to note here there have been 30 snowfalls 6 inches or greater in the month of March in New York City but only one between March 22 and March 31 but seven from April 1 through April 13. Just a curious weird anomaly. If it does happen on Wednesday it is more or less a one in twenty-year occurrence to happen in spring in New York City. 6 inch Spring Snowfalls in NYC 1.....10.2.....April 3-4, 1915 2.....10.0.....April 13, 1875 3.......9.6.....April 6, 1982 4.......9.0.....March 22, 1967 5.......8.5.....April 1, 1924 6.......6.5.....April 5, 1944 7.......6.5.....April 8-9, 1917 8.......6.4.....April 6-7, 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just seems that nws 12-18" forecast is very questionable regardless of which model you use or which run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:29 AM, doncat said: Just seems that nws 12-18" forecast is very questionable regardless of which model you use or which run. Expand That seems a little high IMO, at least for right now. Mt.Holly went a little less here, 8-14" which I think is more reasonable. I also don't think we should be so quick to toss the 06z NAM but it was a pretty wild swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:31 AM, Rtd208 said: That seems a little high IMO, at least for right now. Mt.Holly went a little less here, 8-14" which I think is more reasonable. I also don't think we should be so quick to toss the 06z NAM but it was a pretty wild swing. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:31 AM, Rtd208 said: That seems a little high IMO, at least for right now. Mt.Holly went a little less here, 8-14" which I think is more reasonable. I also don't think we should be so quick to toss the 06z NAM but it was a pretty wild swing. Expand Most likely it over corrected SE. Considering non of the 6z guidance agrees with it but we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:40 AM, doncat said: Expand I find that funny, the warning that was sent to my phone say 8-14" but yet this map says otherwise. Amazing how you have inconsistencies in the same forecast office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8-12 for NYC with 12+ for LI on the GFS GFS is way more tucked in than the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:45 AM, Snow88 said: 8-12 for NYC with 12+ for LI on the GFS GFS is way more tucked in than the Nam Expand Plus most of the heavier preip is after 4pm to midnight. Also a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:45 AM, Snow88 said: 8-12 for NYC with 12+ for LI on the GFS GFS is way more tucked in than the Nam Expand But it also went east and there's big gradient from Manhattan west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:49 AM, Ericjcrash said: But it also went east and there's big gradient from Manhattan west. Expand Could be noise We will see but even Upton thinks the coast will be the favorites with the heaviest snow. I would have went with 6-12 instead of 12-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:49 AM, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Plus most of the heavier preip is after 4pm to midnight. Also a plus. Expand Yep shifted to tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:53 AM, tdenzler said: Latest GFS refuses to give up the ghost... Over 1.5"+ for many in tristate. GFS has been horrible so I think it best to take with a grain of salt... Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Expand Gfs has support from the rgem Ukie and German. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:52 AM, Snow88 said: Could be noise We will see but even Upton thinks the coast will be the favorites with the heaviest snow. I would have went with 6-12 instead of 12-16.Upton has 12-18" for white plains... They see mixing at coast...Obviously that was before the latest models.Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdenzler Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:53 AM, Snow88 said: Gfs has support from the rgem Ukie and German.Correct... but... NAM has been so much better than most this year... Especially over the last 3.Hard to ignore it.Next suite of models will be very telling.Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 9:55 AM, tdenzler said: Upton has 12-18" for white plains... They see mixing at coast... Obviously that was before the latest models. Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk Expand Upton has 12-16 here also on the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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