kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:09 AM, NJwx85 said: It’s the coldest storm of the last 4, that’s why I’m going bullish with 4-8” in NYC. I can also see how the best banding stays over the interior and the city gets stuck in subsidence Expand If NYC gets into the banding, 4-8 will be conservative if anything. Of course, most of that will come down to nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Also the RGEM has been awful this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:21 AM, NJwx85 said: I agree that there won’t be a lot of white rain with this system, but conservative is the way to go. Expand Yeah 5:1 and 6:1 is about the best one could hope for in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I guess we'll see I'm calling for 8 inches for central park right now if all models stay put I can understand why people don't want to pull the trigger, the writing was on the wall each storm for NYC this month the temps were in the 33-35 range the whole time you can't accumulate snow in midtown if it's not below freezing and it doesn't snow 35dbz at least. But this time is around we will have that (we should) long lasting storm and sleet to cover the somewhat warm ground. Plus below freezing surface temps all other levels will crash once the low starts cranking. I guess well see in 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:22 AM, kat5hurricane said: If NYC gets into the banding, 4-8 will be conservative if anything. Of course, most of that will come down to nowcasting. Expand Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I don't blame any met for going conservative on accums in NYC given the past few storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:23 AM, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Expand Climo agrees wholeheartedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The RGEM now has more precip tomorrow than the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:24 AM, HeadInTheClouds said: I don't blame any met for going conservative on accums in NYC given the past few storms. Expand The past 3 storms have no bearing on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:17 AM, NewYorkweatherfan said: Below freezing each night and it'll be below freezing while it precipitates come on dude give it a rest Expand I'm not gonna argue with you. The statement was that the ground was cold. The ground may be exposed to below freezing temps at night, but given the time of the year, it has been exposed to above freezing temps during the day. All I'm saying is it may not be as cold as you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:23 AM, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Expand Perhaps but I think it's too difficult to pinpoint a ceiling or a floor at this point, this storm is going to have tons of moisture and colder air to work with than the previous storms. As is usually the case, it will come down to where the banding sets up so there will be a screw zone somewhere. However, I can understand why one would be conservative. This is pretty unprecedented for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:22 AM, NJwx85 said: Also the RGEM has been awful this year Expand Perhaps. But I thoroughly look forward to seeing the total snowfall/QPF from the RGEM. Should be at the very least one to save on the desktop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:26 AM, weatherbear5 said: Perhaps. But I thoroughly look forward to seeing the total snowfall/QPF from the RGEM. Should be at the very least one to save on the desktop Expand It’s been wilder than the NAM. Too bad as last year it schooled everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 RGEM is stuck at 30hrs on TT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:25 AM, Ericjcrash said: Climo agrees wholeheartedly. Expand Climo? Have you paid attention to this month? 4 noreasters in 19 days. I've never even heard of that. That beats any history book although central park got screwed not this time in my opinion but places like Sussex county mahopac are close to 30-40 inches just this month add another 10 easily and respectively u got the whole years worth in MARCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:23 AM, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Expand If the banding ends up over the area and the storm stalls and spins , the ceiling will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:20 AM, NJwx85 said: The track of the ULL is similar to the second storm, maybe a tick SE. Expand That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. Whoever gets into the banding, even at the coast, is going to get big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:29 AM, NewYorkweatherfan said: Climo? Have you laid attention to this month? 4 noreasters in 19 days. I've never even heard of that. That beats any history book although central park got screwed not this time in my opinion but places like Sussex county mahopac are close to 30-40 inches just this month add another 10 easily and respectively u got the whole years worth in MARCH Expand Climo means nothing 4 noreasters in March ? 2 tropical systems hitting the northeast back to back years. Snowstorm in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:29 AM, kat5hurricane said: That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. Expand I got 4 inches of slush lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:25 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: The past 3 storms have no bearing on this one. Expand Yes they do. I believe most models showed heavier snow accums than actually verified in NYC. You have to take into account the heat Island affect especially in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:29 AM, kat5hurricane said: That tick SE would have made all the difference with the 2nd storm. The 2nd storm wasn't a temp issue, it was a subsidence issue for the NYC area. Expand That's incorrect in my.opinion cause I got videos of the building where I work it was 31 degrees during the height of the storm on the roof and the snow was accumulating no problem on the 23rd floor but when I came down it was white rain! It was defintely the temperature. It had to be it snowed hard at one point it was just too warm! I was there. I think i could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:31 AM, HeadInTheClouds said: Yes they do. I believe most models showed heavier snow accums than actually verified in NYC. You have to take into account the heat Island affect especially in March. Expand No, they don't. And the heat island is mutually exclusive from those storms. It's always extant. I think what you mean to say is, "It's difficult to snow in March." That I can agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:31 AM, NewYorkweatherfan said: Thats arong in my.opinion cause I got videos of the building where I work it was 31 degrees during the height of the storm I got storm accumulating no problem on the 23rd floor but when I came down it was white rain! It was defi Italy the temperature. It snowed hard at one point it was just too warm! I was there Expand You're thinking of the 1st storm. NYC never got into the heavy rates for the 2nd storm, it didn't accumulate because it was snowing lightly throughout most of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Finally got the RGEM out to 48. Just looking at the precip, both the NAM (12k and 3k) and RGEM like the idea of a sweeping mega band. The orientation is however different between the two. NAM likes it SE to NW, RGEM more SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:34 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: No, they don't. And the heat island is mutually exclusive from those storms. It's always extant. I think what you mean to say is, "It's difficult to snow in March." That I can agree with. Expand Especially in Manhattan and that's why I don't blame Mets for being conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:35 AM, kat5hurricane said: You're thinking of the 1st storm. NYC never got into the heavy rates for the 2nd storm, it didn't accumulate because it was snowing lightly throughout most of the storm. Expand Last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:23 AM, NJwx85 said: Still think the ceiling is no more than 10” Expand Have to agree. Sucks, but NYC really needs good snow rates and below freezing temps for much to happen there this time of year (I guess excluding NE Queens, parts of Staten Island, etc). It can happen, but the right conditions have to exist. A lousy CCB feature won't do it especially if it kinda dry slots over NYC/Long Island and hits interior NJ again, or it slides SE. Not saying this will happen (I'm intrigued about this FWIW), but keep in mind what can go wrong. The WAA from the second system will be hampered by the first wave, so we're relying on what the CCB can produce. The 9, 10" calls for Central Park are overblown IMO. I wouldn't go over 3-5" there unless models tonight really blow up the Wed storm and show a good CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 On 3/20/2018 at 3:38 AM, jm1220 said: Have to agree. Sucks, but NYC really needs good snow rates and below freezing temps for much to happen there this time of year (I guess excluding NE Queens, parts of Staten Island, etc). It can happen, but the right conditions have to exist. A lousy CCB feature won't do it especially if it kinda dry slots over NYC/Long Island and hits interior NJ again. Not saying this will happen (I'm intrigued about this FWIW), but keep in mind what can go wrong. The WAA from the second system will be hampered by the first wave, so we're relying on what the CCB can produce. The 9, 10" calls for Central Park are overblown IMO. I wouldn't go over 3-5" there unless models tonight really blow up the Wed storm and show a good CCB. Expand The snow shouldn't have a problem sticking on Wednesday . I think alot of people are downplaying this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ace Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Am I missing something? The 12Z Euro and the 0Z NAM has surface temps in the upper 20's to 30 degrees during the height of the precipitation. Several degrees lower than our previous storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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