Yanksfan Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:37 PM, Enigma said: Our biggest homeruns are storms that look suppressed initially. Expand I remember 4 days before the blizzard of 96, Janice Huff said the storm would be a southern slider and we could end up with possible flurries. Yea we know how that worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:43 PM, sferic said: I will get more excited once it looks like there won't be any white rain or any rain Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Expand Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Lee Goldberg not buying suppression. He said maybe a 1 in 5 chance of that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 March suppression? hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 5:34 PM, jm1220 said: If there’s a high bringing cold air down, maybe there’s a chance down here. But there’s so much that has to go right that it’s pointless for me to get interested unless it’s still showing this a couple of days out. I couldn’t care less about another marginal/lousy surface air setup where coastal areas and the city are relying on 33-34 temps and paltry rates. Count me right out of that. Couldn’t care less either what any snow map shows for that. It’ll be a couple inches or less of slop that melts by late afternoon. Expand Yeah I am more or less in the same camp. I do think suppression is unlikely given the tele's and time of year. But, at least where I sit, I am not confident that this doesn't just amount to another hodgepodge of plain and white rain. Interior and elevated people seem most favored here. Even if they receive less overall precip, they are far more likely to receive a greater proportion of their total in frozen form. Could the stars align and prove me wrong? Yes, and I hope it pans out that way. But right now, I cannot bring myself to become invested in this one...at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:55 PM, Enigma said: March suppression? hahaha Expand Isn't that literally happening with the first low to eject out of the west now into this weekend? If you looked only at the 500mb chart from Nebraska westward you'd think that thing was gonna run into the Dakotas. It runs into a brick wall of confluence, and is suppressed. its going to depend on what the ULL over SE Canada does and just to clarify, i don't necessarily think that suppression is the most likely scenario, but it's not impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS is a best case scenario, especially with it laying down a good amount of sleet. It doesn't melt easily especially with the decent BL temps and will help the eventual snow accumulate. Of course that's if the 100+hr GFS verifies. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 So far the NAM (albeit 84hrs out) looks remarkably similar on the surface to the GFS for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 6:33 PM, NJwx85 said: I see what you're saying. Looks like I confused heights with thicknesses. The Euro also shows the 540 thickness draped over the region. If that ends up being true, then we're toast. I still stand by my earlier statement that you do not want the GGEM solution. Expand The Euro 1000-500mb 540 thickness never gets north of TTN, unless there's odd 3 hour jumps north that I don't have access to. i think you may mean height again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:55 PM, Enigma said: March suppression? hahaha Expand March 2014 - multiple storms suppressed south by the polar vortex (different mechanism than now, but it happened)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This storm can easily be suppressed if the PV and confluence to the north are too strong. Doesn't matter if it's Jan or March. 2014 had several suppressed March storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:53 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Lee Goldberg not buying suppression. He said maybe a 1 in 5 chance of that happening. Expand I tend to agree with Goldberg. The pattern is not one that is consistent with those in which storms have typically been suppressed in March. Shorter wave lengths mean that teleconnection values that might be conducive to suppression in January or February are not necessarily conducive to suppression in March. The storm could well pass to our south, but the odds that Washington, DC would see more snow than New York City are probably about one-in-three if that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Not that the model matters, but the ICON trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This will probably trend south and then head back north. Happends all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The GFS seems to be very consistent so far handling the system. The 18z looks to be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS looks more like the EURO with the 2nd piece off of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 9:59 PM, Joe4alb said: The GFS seems to be very consistent so far handling the system. The 18z looks to be no different. Expand Except that it only has the first wave now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 9:34 PM, bluewave said: Narrowly missing the blizzard on 3-4-16 was probably the worst. It looked amazing on the satellite passing to our SE. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20160304.html Expand 3/4, 3/17, and 3/25 were all pretty painful. What really made them painful was it was death by a 1000 small shifts in the models and actual tracks. All three started out with substantial snowstorms on the table 3-4 days out (especially 3/4) and they kept trending further and further south and forecast amounts kept trending lower and lower until we got flurries, basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Gfs going towards the euro. Not good news for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS is a mess. ICON and GFS followed the EURO to some extent. Still very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 gfs looks to go boom, that 500 chart looks very pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:37 PM, Enigma said: Our biggest homeruns are storms that look suppressed initially. Expand looks like it will come down to the ridge out west-if that gets knocked down, the further south runs may be onto something...still early in the game however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 9:01 PM, Eduardo said: Yeah I am more or less in the same camp. I do think suppression is unlikely given the tele's and time of year. But, at least where I sit, I am not confident that this doesn't just amount to another hodgepodge of plain and white rain. Interior and elevated people seem most favored here. Even if they receive less overall precip, they are far more likely to receive a greater proportion of their total in frozen form. Could the stars align and prove me wrong? Yes, and I hope it pans out that way. But right now, I cannot bring myself to become invested in this one...at least not yet. Expand Models have surface temps near freezing near the coast. This storm looks colder than the past few storms thanks to the negative epo. The snow will stick if we get the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 10:08 PM, Joe4alb said: gfs looks to go boom, that 500 chart looks very pretty. Expand 12z run was better This run is colder and more disorganized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 10:10 PM, Snow88 said: 12z run was better This run is colder and more disorganized Expand Surface is a mess not reflective of upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 10:11 PM, Joe4alb said: Surface is a mess not reflective of upper levels. Expand 2nd low is very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 8:55 PM, Enigma said: March suppression? hahaha Expand Happened in 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 7:36 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Because of the NAO flip and other factors ’m inclined to think similar along the lines to what Steve D is thinking in that this probably is a PHL north event or it’s not an event at all. If the pieces come together right this probably goes up the coast. If not it probably slides OTS and isn’t a big deal for anyone other than the mountains of NC AND VA Expand how many systems in this pattern have passed OTS without effecting the tri - state ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 On 3/16/2018 at 10:46 PM, bluewave said: This storm will be a new test for the models in 2018. So far there haven't been any strong -NAO...50/50...SE Canada high pressure confluence set ups. So we may have to go back to the drawing board with this event coming up. In the short term, the NAM has generally done very well with these past events. But we have time to go before the NAM gets within its range. Expand Yes I agree with your statements, and the NAM is the one model that has shown improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Still believe that this comes north, I have a hard time buying into a southern slider with a rising NAO, of which many of our large storms have come on the heels of. This is an extremely complex setup with tons of energy (just take a look at that 500) that the models are having a terribly difficult time sorting out. Expect more run to run jumps even more so than we have seen with other events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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