Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 It might be a day or so early to start this but there's solid ensemble support for a storm. Have at it. **The "attention everyone" thread still applies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Freezing temps are near NYC the whole time for round 1 and 2 12 + for NYC westward Long duration storm This is the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Btw metsfan is talking about the gfs even though he didnt mention that or post a map. Where is everyone? Gfs looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The end result is 2 days of snow for the whole area and near 20 inches on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Btw metsfan is talking about the gfs even though he didnt mention that or post a map. Where is everyone? Gfs looked great. Hi. Agreed. I hope my hangover will be gone by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 HECS ANYONE ? YOU HAVE JUST BEEN GooFuSd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GFS does look great, even the snow depth change filter on TT (which was very stingy with the last several storms) gives everyone over a foot. Over 2" of LE. Boundary temps look to be at freezing rather than 2-4 degrees above it like some other recent storms I could mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: HECS ANYONE ? YOU HAVE JUST BEEN GOOFUSSED CMC has the same idea but weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Definitely at least some sleet included in there, at least on the Island. still, if ever there was a long duration event, this would be it. Even if it comes in bursts and breaks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: HECS ANYONE ? YOU HAVE JUST BEEN GooFuSd *includes sleet* how can so many people be too dumb to notice those words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Even accounting for melting and sleet, the 12z GFS is 10-14” for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Even accounting for melting and sleet, the 12z GFS is 10-14” for most. Alot of sleet for the coast with wave 1 850s go above 0 for the coast ( barely ) but surface temps stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Geps is pretty similiar to the gfs in regards to the training precip near the coast. It's just slightly colder than the Gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Fwiw ICON looks good but favors the interior with a change to rain at the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 CMC is further south with the big totals. 12 inches for central Jersey - SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is further south with the big totals. 12 inches for central Jersey - SNJ It has a very suppressed look which is certainly on the table if the blocking ends up too strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 34 minutes ago, forkyfork said: *includes sleet* how can so many people be too dumb to notice those words Since I haven't seen any significant accumulation of sleet from any storm this season - I doubt we will see it this time around - precip type is going to be mainly snow or rain or a combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Fwiw ICON looks good but favors the interior with a change to rain at the coast The GFS favors the interior too, until you get into Wednesday night. That's when the coast receives most of its snow. Before then is a lot of mixed precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We may get a Euro run soon that is really suppressed. That may not be a bad thing since it would leave room for a late correction north without being too warm. I don't understand this obsession with a late correction North. That doesn't happen with every storm despite how it's portrayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Nice reverse psychology with the title of the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Since I haven't seen any significant accumulation of sleet from any storm this season - I doubt we will see it this time around - precip type is going to be mainly snow or rain or a combo The GFS is picking up on the CAD into Northern Long Island. The introduction of a developing high pressure system has increased the chances for frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It's a common bias with the models. Snowfall JP's usually creep N and W from the 120 hr EPS/Euro position. The unknown with every storm is at what point the NW shift stops. You need to embrace some degree of day 5 suppression for the coastal posters to get the best snow potential. The GFS is fine right where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS is fine right where it is. CMC is fine for my area and gfs for your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GEFS Mean has >1.5" LE for the entire area. Boundary temps maybe a little higher for the first half but look good for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC is fine for my area and gfs for your area The CMC makes absolutely no sense. The 540 line is way up by the Canadian border and retrograding NW towards the developing high over Ontario. No reason why it's that supressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: We may get a Euro run soon that is really suppressed. That may not be a bad thing since it would leave room for a late correction north without being too warm. Exactly where we want to be at this juncture. Every single event has trended nw from this time period. more cold available this time. Could this finally be the storm the coast comes through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The CMC makes absolutely no sense. The 540 line is way up by the Canadian border and retrograding NW towards the developing high over Ontario. No reason why it's that supressed You mean 534 line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: You mean 534 line No, the 534 line is even further North. The GGEM tries to push a piece of the developing high into Central NE before consolidating it over Ontario. The GGEM is a joke of a model, but by all means, keep using it. I don't even know why I bother posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 According to a recent abstract posted in the other thread, a negative to positive NAO favors suppression along with a negative PNA, which are both projected next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: *includes sleet* how can so many people be too dumb to notice those words True, last storm had a lot of sleet for me but was luckily all snow. What are your early thoughts for this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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