chuckster2012 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 55 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: That’s just unreal. Why even be a model? I don’t get it. Got me in the 9" range, that's why! : ). Where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Sure is a sharp gradient between Indy and Dayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The models are going to be all over the place in regards to snow placement with each run. It's the nature of the setup. At this point, it would be more alarming if there were no high totals in OH/IN, I'm not too focused on the exact location yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 0z models in general have a little less moisture this far west, possibly due to the lead wave really going to town on the east coast. A few inches still looks good for parts of OH and extreme eastern IN but odds of 6”+ jackpots have diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 So we don't get so much snow. It could always be worse. Forecast for near Mammoth Lakes California: Today A 50 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 28. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 23. Very windy, with a southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible. Thursday Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 14. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 22 minutes ago, sojitodd said: So we don't get so much snow. It could always be worse. Forecast for near Mammoth Lakes California: Today A 50 percent chance of snow after 11am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 21. Very windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 35 to 40 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Wednesday Snow. High near 28. Very windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to 50 to 55 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 23. Very windy, with a southwest wind around 55 mph, with gusts as high as 100 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible. Thursday Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 65 to 70 mph decreasing to 55 to 60 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow showers. Low around 14. Very windy. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. 5-7 feet of snow (yes, I did the math) with 100 mph winds? That's some serious drifting. I'd take it any day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5-7 FEET of snow?! 100 mph winds?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Sure is a sharp gradient between Indy and Dayton Indy and Dayton? My P&C says a dusting at best, 20 miles East 2-4 lol! Edit: If the latest HRRR trends are to be believed you could hit the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 hours ago, Angrysummons said: I doubt it, just typical upper level disorganization and confusion. The low on the east coast was actually less impressive in general than on some of the earlier NAM runs. If it goes weaker, it goes weaker everywhere. The HRRR is already backing the NAM on eastern indiana into western ohio being the where the heavy band is going to setup. Quite a west shift. Yeah, definite shift west on the Ohio Valley low. Brings a dry slot into more of east-central OH where many models had a good band yesterday. The HRRR and NAM3 almost hint at a mini TROWAL feeding into the west side of the storm, if that occurs that may be where some spots can still top 6”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 WINTER STORM WARNING issued for parts of eastern and southern Indiana.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 HRRR bumping totals farther north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Snowing nicely here with accumulation on grassy areas only. We are many hours ahead of schedule with no rain, good odds of over-performing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: Starting to become a nice little system if we can cool off enough for it to be all snow. buckeye is right, this starting at night is crucial. I think buckeye me and many others may get the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 27 minutes ago, Sidewinder said: Snowing nicely here with accumulation on grassy areas only. We are many hours ahead of schedule with no rain, good odds of over-performing. Nice to see its sticking with 2m temps around 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here's my final bid on this...do suspect there will be some unforeseen screw holes, but am hoping they're few and far enough in between... The low is expected to be a little farther west than was thought yesterday, which brings marginal temps and a dry slot farther in from the south/east into south-central, southeastern, and east-central Ohio for a good chunk of time this evening into the night. This really eats into the area I thought would see the best snow in east-central Ohio yesterday, and that represents the largest change from yesterday's forecast. There may be a sharper cutoff from good snows just west of Columbus to dry slot and only an inch or two farther east than expected, which is one area that may end up getting shafted compared to this map depending on how quickly the dry slot fills after midnight. Within the broad band of light snow expected to develop from southwestern and west-central to central, north-central, and northeastern Ohio by late this evening there will be a couple of areas to watch for better snows. The first will be across parts of west-central Ohio where a TROWAL will advect into the shield of snow for several hours this evening. The better moisture/lift and instability with this feature should cause a period of moderate snow where it hits the deformation/cold conveyor belt snow. Forecast soundings show decent lift within the DGZ, so once it cools enough for snow and accumulates ratios may actually be higher than 10:1. With a good upslope flow into the higher terrain in west-central OH potentially aligning with the better snow, along with slightly colder temps in the higher elevations, think that if any area sees a number of 6"+ reports it's there...so did highlight that with 5-7" within the larger 3-6" area. The other area to watch will be across the northern portions of the shield of precip, where some modest low to mid-level fgen is likely to squeeze out a band of snow that's at times moderate. This area also shows decent lift in the DGZ on soundings from the NAM, GFS, and RAP, so again once it starts snowing and sticking ratios may actually give a bit of a boost. There are still hints that an area of higher theta-e air in the low and mid-levels will advect into this area of fgen early Wednesday in extreme eastern Ohio and get pinched off, possibly causing a few hours of better snow. Because of this, did keep a 3-6" area in extreme east-central Ohio, though that's not the highest of confidence. Suspect there will be some areas that don't do great between the better snow from the TROWAL in west-central OH and better snow from the fgen in northern OH, but its kind of hard to guess where. Areas between the better lift will still see several hours of snow, so I'm still hoping they can see 3-4" of snow...but suspect some spots won't quite get there. Did go conservative on the northern edge in NE OH downwind of the higher terrain, due to already dry NE winds downsloping off of the higher terrain in the Snowbelt into the east side of Cleveland and areas NE of Akron. Think south-central and SE Ohio see an inch or so late tonight into early Wednesday as the CCB/deform snow collapses SE as the low fills and jumps to the East Coast. With marginal temps, mainly light rates, and shorter duration am not expecting more than an inch, maybe two inches on the hilltops, in this portion of Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Looks like a fun little system for the OH/southern IN crowd. Good luck guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First flakes starting to fly now here on the SE side of Dayton, was 47 out 3hrs ago! mid30s now and falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It was nice while it lasted. Temps have risen 5-7 degrees in the last hour, no more snow for now. Looks like far southern IN is getting it good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 3" already in Louisville. Been snowing 3 hours now here in Jennings county but just now starting to stick.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Mix of snow and sleet just started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 The way the radar looks... could we be in the dry slot screw zone... would not surprise me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 11 minutes ago, Steve said: The way the radar looks... could we be in the dry slot screw zone... would not surprise me... Yep. Dryslot goes right above my location to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Finally starting to get into the snow. Vehicles quickly covered. See how long I can stay in this band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Grass is covered with a little melt off. Deck has about 1/2 inch on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Had about a 4 hour dry slot gap, but restarted in ernest about 10pm, heavy snow now about 1/4mi visibility, picked up a quick half inch during the past 30mins. Down to 31 degrees. UPDATE: The snow backed off to 1/2 mi visibility now and 1" of new snow on the ground at 11:30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Things appear generally on track on obs/radar and short term modeling with the band of snow filling in...with bursts of moderate snow over parts of west-central and Southwest Ohio and with fgen in northern OH, and a large dry slot over parts of sough-central and southeastern Ohio. The fgen band is a little closer to Lake Erie than I expected in north-central Ohio so we’ll see how that northern edge does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just started here along the western cutoff zone. We'll be lucky to get 2 I figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Under moderate snow from the fgen band on the northern edge of the precip. About 1” so far and current rates are not much less than 1”/hr. The fgen band is about 5-10 miles north than I envisioned and should drop a few inches just inland from the lake in Cuyahoga, Lorain, and Erie Co’s. ILN has upgraded parts of SW OH to a warning...the corridor along I-75 from Cincinnati to Sydney east to Wilmington to Marysville to Bucyrus is under good moderate snow and continues to look good for several inches, with this area continuing to be the best bet for multiple 6”+ reports. Columbus should get 3-4” as the dry slot continues to fill I’d think with an increase from east to west across Franklin Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 21, 2018 Author Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, OHweather said: Under moderate snow from the fgen band on the northern edge of the precip. About 1” so far and current rates are not much less than 1”/hr. The fgen band is about 5-10 miles north than I envisioned and should drop a few inches just inland from the lake in Cuyahoga, Lorain, and Erie Co’s. ILN has upgraded parts of SW OH to a warning...the corridor along I-75 from Cincinnati to Sydney east to Wilmington to Marysville to Bucyrus is under good moderate snow and continues to look good for several inches, with this area continuing to be the best bet for multiple 6”+ reports. Columbus should get 3-4” as the dry slot continues to fill I’d think with an increase from east to west across Franklin Co. I'm approaching 2.5" at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, snowlover2 said: I'm approaching 2.5" at this point. That's decent given how much more snow is left with the moderate snow not in any hurry to move...you may not quite get 6" but I'd have to think doubling what you have won't be hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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