snowlover2 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Why not. It appears that energy left behind in the OH/KY/WV area after a transfer re-energizes and possibly drops several inches of snow somewhere in the E IN/W OH/SEMI area. 12z GFS has the heaviest snow in NW/W Central OH and SEMI 6"+ and the 12z Euro has most of E IN/W and N OH in the 4-8" area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayton1996 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Checking in, after being very quiet as usual on my part. Interesting scenario for next week for sure. Thanks for the heads up. We'll see if this verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Lots of model variability but there is a signal for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 18z GFS looks like the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 18z GFS below. 12z GGEM was similar to this and 12z Euro was a whiff south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 OK, this is peaking my interest. I'm not totally on board with the setup, but it bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 After the 12z's it seems to be NAM/GGEM vs GFS/Euro. NAM/GGEM both want to give significant snow to IN/OH while GFS/Euro are both south and less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vespasian70 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Speaking of the Euro, it sure is cold and snowy next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, vespasian70 said: Speaking of the Euro, it sure is cold and snowy next weekend. Give it another run or 2....”poof” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 0z NAM remains consistent on significant snow and snow still going as this run ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 so... every model but the nam gives central OH anywhere from 3-8" of snow Tuesday night/Wed morning. I can tell by the enthusiastic postings that the Ohio crew is unimpressed lol. Can't say I blame us for it. We're stewing in pessimism and the reality that it's now mid March. It's also a complicated set up. Two waves. The first one only has a very narrow stripe of frozen on the northern edge and that one looks to mostly miss us to the south or if it is furthern north, has more rain with it. The second wave develops off shore and leaves an inverted trough back into the OV which transports precip back over Ohio, mostly in the form of snow. This is where most of the modeled accums are coming from. High bust potential with that kind of situation....both good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: so... every model but the nam gives central OH anywhere from 3-8" of snow Tuesday night/Wed morning. I can tell by the enthusiastic postings that the Ohio crew is unimpressed lol. Can't say I blame us for it. We're stewing in pessimism and the reality that it's now mid March. It's also a complicated set up. Two waves. The first one only has a very narrow stripe of frozen on the northern edge and that one looks to mostly miss us to the south or if it is furthern north, has more rain with it. The second wave develops off shore and leaves an inverted trough back into the OV which transports precip back over Ohio, mostly in the form of snow. This is where most of the modeled accums are coming from. High bust potential with that kind of situation....both good and bad. Waiting for you my friend b/c I don’t have access to the Euro. What’s funny is the NAM has had 2nd wave for a couple of days & then lost it for us. Now the GFS still has it (never really totally lost 2nd wave idea) & Euro keeps creeping in right direction for us. Overall trends good but of course you’re right with high bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 18z nam. Come on with it lol. Huge bust in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 minute ago, Angrysummons said: This is a very difficult setup. Reminds me a bit of a further north version of the early February 1998 Ohio river snowstorm with the inversion. The stronger it inverts and twists, the bigger the dump. The NAM would probably be a big dump of snow for a big chunk of Ohio with that strong inversion. speaking of the nam. we just got a classic 18z nam'ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Very rare situation but does have precedence. This is how places like cincy to cmh received around a foot of snow during the Jan'96 eastcoast blizz. Inverted trough back into southern OH keeping the snow conveyor belt going. That one was modeled very poorly and was a total nowcast surprise, we were forecasted to get a dusting to an inch. Of course that was January and not March....it was also one hell of precip bomb on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 40 minutes ago, buckeye said: Very rare situation but does have precedence. This is how places like cincy to cmh received around a foot of snow during the Jan'96 eastcoast blizz. Inverted trough back into southern OH keeping the snow conveyor belt going. That one was modeled very poorly and was a total nowcast surprise, we were forecasted to get a dusting to an inch. Of course that was January and not March....it was also one hell of precip bomb on the coast. The thing in our favor will be most of this falling Tuesday night so no sun angle issues or melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 hours ago, buckeye said: Very rare situation but does have precedence. This is how places like cincy to cmh received around a foot of snow during the Jan'96 eastcoast blizz. Inverted trough back into southern OH keeping the snow conveyor belt going. That one was modeled very poorly and was a total nowcast surprise, we were forecasted to get a dusting to an inch. Of course that was January and not March....it was also one hell of precip bomb on the coast. How did u guys fair around here in regards to amounts during Blizzard of ‘96? I was still in Philly at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: How did u guys fair around here in regards to amounts during Blizzard of ‘96? I was still in Philly at the time. I was 12 at the time but remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 18 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: How did u guys fair around here in regards to amounts during Blizzard of ‘96? I was still in Philly at the time. I lived in Hilliard and we picked up 11". It was a steady moderate to heavy snow that lasted from about 8am to 8pm. NWS just kept upping amounts and nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I lived in Hilliard and we picked up 11". It was a steady moderate to heavy snow that lasted from about 8am to 8pm. NWS just kept upping amounts and nowcasting. Wow. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, buckeye said: I lived in Hilliard and we picked up 11". It was a steady moderate to heavy snow that lasted from about 8am to 8pm. NWS just kept upping amounts and nowcasting. 8 minutes ago, dilly84 said: I was 12 at the time but remember it. Man, I’m old. I was 23, driving home from the Poconos in it. Got my girlfriend home before they started closing the interstates. Took me an entire day to dig out from her place w/ A LOT of help & I had 4 wheel drive! Those side streets in Philly were buried! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Man, I’m old. I was 23, driving home from the Poconos in it. Got my girlfriend home before they started closing the interstates. Took me an entire day to dig out from her place w/ A LOT of help & I had 4 wheel drive! Those side streets in Philly were buried! You were in the right place for that one. I think the claim to fame for it here was it had to be the biggest forecast bust I ever remember, (bust on the positive side). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, buckeye said: You were in the right place for that one. I think the claim to fame for it here was it had to be the biggest forecast bust I ever remember, (bust on the positive side). Forever a special place in my heart for sure. A bust to 11” is pretty unreal too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Definitely an odd setup with the east coast low taking over but a decent inverted trough/perhaps even closed low lingering back over the Ohio Valley...but as has been mentioned not unprecedented. The additional shortwaves dumping into the trough after the first low jumps to the coast allows for that. With potentially marginal thermals and some uncertainly over just how much precip the Ohio Valley portion of the storm can produce, I’d be cautious about the more amped solutions at this point...but accumulating snow seems like a good bet for a large chunk of Ohio. I’m thinking the ceiling is maybe some 6 or 8” lollis at this point, but let’s see how it goes. The shortwaves dropping through the trough look rather strung out so I’m thinking a NAM solution is very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 0z NAM dumps on a good chunk of Ohio especially the southern half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 hours ago, snowlover2 said: 0z NAM dumps on a good chunk of Ohio especially the southern half. Had to post this for fun. Less than 2 days out fantasy storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 hours ago, dilly84 said: Had to post this for fun. Less than 2 days out fantasy storm lol Book it! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 14 hours ago, buckeye said: I lived in Hilliard and we picked up 11". It was a steady moderate to heavy snow that lasted from about 8am to 8pm. NWS just kept upping amounts and nowcasting. Hmm, don't tear my head off, but would it be possible you're remembering the big snow storm that was about the 3rd week of Jan '96? The reason I bring this up is it was the Monday after the Hocking Hills Annual Winter hike and its always the 3rd Saturday in Jan. It was not a blizzard, but it gave close to 1ft totals (on top of a 6" blanket to start) for most of the I-70 & south folks. Specifically IMBY I only recorded about 6" but DAY got 10" and Lucasville got close to 40" (unofficial as our IT guy at the time said his dad came out the next morning and dropped his trucks tailgate and it hit the snow!) and the extreme SE Ohio counties got close to 2ft. EDIT: I did a quick check, and this 3rd week in Jan event I'm remembering was not Jan of '96, had to be earlier, maybe Jan '94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 3 hours ago, HighTechEE said: Hmm, don't tear my head off, but would it be possible you're remembering the big snow storm that was about the 3rd week of Jan '96? The reason I bring this up is it was the Monday after the Hocking Hills Annual Winter hike and its always the 3rd Saturday in Jan. It was not a blizzard, but it gave close to 1ft totals (on top of a 6" blanket to start) for most of the I-70 & south folks. Specifically IMBY I only recorded about 6" but DAY got 10" and Lucasville got close to 40" (unofficial as our IT guy at the time said his dad came out the next morning and dropped his trucks tailgate and it hit the snow!) and the extreme SE Ohio counties got close to 2ft. EDIT: I did a quick check, and this 3rd week in Jan event I'm remembering was not Jan of '96, had to be earlier, maybe Jan '94. It was definitely the '96 jan eastcoast blizz that I was referring to. I believe the Jan'94 storm was the infamous Kentucky mauler that shut down Louisville for a week. Which would also make sense that southeastern and southern OH got clobbered as well. I think CMH got around 7" for that one. I remember that Jan'94 storm because it was also the same day as the earthquake in Northridge CA . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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