Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 SREFs are really hammering hard on the Wednesday storm. Looks like > .75"+ LE all the way into central PA. RGEM also looks N and MECSy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Things are trending the right direction Wednesday. As was the case Friday, I am still worried this ends up too far west for us in the metro area and we mix to sleet. But we LL worry about that if we get there. For now, keep inches NW up to the event. Im considering buying a generator from my buddy who upgraded after last storm but I don't know if I want to put that bad karma on my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Latest nam really had alot more in wave 1. This is both waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The way the meso models are jumping around I may have to wait until 12Z tomorrow to get a handle on this mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM would be absolutely devastating event for this area. As much as I want a HECS here, this would really be a scary event. The 10 inches 2 weeks ago was scary enough being outside with branches falling every 10 seconds, this would be even worse. Plus this would be much more widespread with outages as opposed to mainly bucks county in that storm. I said March 58 jokingly at the start of this thread but it is looking like a major event like that. Maybe not that 50" totals but the widespread heavy wet snow of possibly 6-10+" region wide. The NAM has snow and sleet falling for nearly 30 hours beginning tomorrow afternoon... not heavy the entire time but still shows how long this event may go. Obviously totals will need to be cut down by as much as half on the 10:1 maps because I think there will be periods of sleet from Bucks County S and E and ratio's will be similar to two weeks ago. 7-8:1 or worse in spots. I was at 5:1 in the beginning of that event. Still a pretty concerning run by the NAM that is almost lockstep with the Euro. EE rule in effect...this one is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS NW and more amped with wave 2 at 42 from 6z... this one may be a big hitter too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 12z GFS identical to 12z NAM at hour 48.... Area is going to be buried on wave 2. MECS incoming on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: 12z GFS identical to 12z NAM at hour 48.... Area is going to be buried on wave 2. MECS incoming on this run Hi Iceman - thanks for the play by play. What is it looking like for snow amounts in western Montgomery County? With ratios and possible sleet, that NAM TT map may be overdone. Your 6-10" may be right for here also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 holy hell... SE/PA and SNJ are absolutely buried this run... comcast tower collapses from the weight of the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Not going to know where the heavy snow bands setup until they are under away can't predict these convective snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: holy hell... SE/PA and SNJ are absolutely buried this run... comcast tower collapses from the weight of the snow... Yup lock in we get screwed again!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Hi Iceman - thanks for the play by play. What is it looking like for snow amounts in western Montgomery County? With ratios and possible sleet, that NAM TT map may be overdone. Your 6-10" may be right for here also. Yeah I am liking a general 6-10" region wide right now but if I had to pick a preferred area that see a foot or more right now it would be your area.. I am concerned with major sleet issues for much of the area that sees the most precip. Under the CCB it won't be a problem but wave 1 especially and into the beginning of wave 2 I think will see a lot of sleet even up to ABE. There is already a warm layer being depicted but 2M's look below 32 for the entire wave 2 so everything should fall frozen. Still I don't buy the 16-20" totals being painted at all. As we learned last there, a sneaky warm layer can turn a major snowstorm into a sleetfest. Unlike last year, we will definitely change back to snow when the CCB kicks in. It's a delicate situation. Wouldn't be surprised if your area was ground zero TBH especially as we are ticking nw with each run. Upper/bucks and montgomery into berks and chester would be my pick right now to see 12"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, penndotguy said: Yup lock in we get screwed again!!! Lol With how much this keeps ticking N and W I wouldn't count on it just yet... I am becoming nervous this turns to a 95 sleetfest N and W paste bomb event with the continuing ticks NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I wonder how much more stress the trees can take, some people are just getting power on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 11 minutes ago, The Iceman said: holy hell... SE/PA and SNJ are absolutely buried this run... comcast tower collapses from the weight of the snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bluescat1 said: I wonder how much more stress the trees can take, some people are just getting power on. Judging from the damage in Bucks county...not much at all. The only positive I can think of is that at least no trees are blooming yet and don't have leaves. This will be a major tree destroyer though if it verifies...anything over 6" is going to cause major major issues around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 We just had our meeting regarding this situation I'm holding out on this one till the last minute, ha ha you count on being buried now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: holy hell... SE/PA and SNJ are absolutely buried this run... comcast tower collapses from the weight of the snow... A good amount of that is sleet....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: A good amount of that is sleet....... the heaviest part is definitely not sleet...maybe on the coast. I mentioned above that sleet is likely an issue for wave 1 into wave 2 until the CCB kicks...the majority of that map falls with the CCB... 10-14" in that 6 hour period...CCB on a NW fetch ain't gonna be sleet. this map is from the CCB onward...subtract maybe a few inches in the event it doesn't flip back as quick as projected but still would be a major major snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 this is not a sleet sounding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: this is not a sleet sounding... I said a good bit was sleet.... Prior to that almost all of it was sleet (about 6-8" of that area showing 22" was sleet I will call it right now.....no one in extreme SEPA/SNJ will see 1-2' of snow...this will will be at most a 6"-8" snowfall and mostly on grassy surfaces. If we get high rates for a period the road could get dicey for a time, but the heaviest rates are during the day. JMO based on all the modeling, the time of year and and the time of event, and the overall duration of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS has about maybe 1/10th of sleet, the rest is heavy wet snow in a very quick amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, DiehardFF said: GFS has about maybe 1/10th of sleet, the rest is heavy wet snow in a very quick amount of time. The 6-8" of snow on the GFS in SNJ up to 12Z is all sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: The 6-8" of snow on the GFS in SNJ up to 12Z is all sleet Sorry, was talking about us lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: I said a good bit was sleet.... Prior to that almost all of it was sleet (about 6-8" of that area showing 22" was sleet even that is close on the sounding...heavier rates would likely be snow...the problem is that in between those heavier rates it would be sleet with those upper layers being so borderline. It's definitely good that the heaviest part of the storm looks to solidly be all snow. Shouldn't be a repeat of last year unless the mid levels warm further in coming runs. Wave 1 has the bigger sleet threat than wave 2 which is a good thing because wave 2 is the main event. wave 1 was never suppose to be anything more than a WWA event at most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is accumulation after the disputed sleet hours so none of wave 1 is included..still a historic event for march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Look, its still going to be a cool event (especially for this time of year), but I can't imagine it becoming a MECS...SECS, sure. We'll see...its all about rates, and with two pronged systems like this we usually don't see one good consolidated storm with heavy rates. Hope I am wrong. I just hate long draw out events this time of year. Those accumulation maps are usually way overdone in these cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Damn, Ice has been on fire w/his future predictions...kudos! I have to take my father for medical stuff in Hatboro tomorrow...not a big problem. Then again Wednesday around 11- noon at Abington Hospital which may be dicey... we'll see. March won't quit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, hazwoper said: Look, its still going to be a cool event (especially for this time of year), but I can't imagine it becoming a MECS...SECS, sure. We'll see...its all about rates, and with two pronged systems like this we usually don't see one good consolidated storm with heavy rates. Hope I am wrong. I just hate long draw out events this time of year. Those accumulation maps are usually way overdone in these cases. Usually I'd agree..long drawn out storms that see precip evenly distributed usually fail in March but the evolution is different and really it's 2 distinct storms where 1 is not a big deal and the other is the main event. Honestly I could see a repeat of the storm from two weeks ago where areas have nothing on the ground until the CCB rips and all of the sudden theres 10 inches in 5 hours of heavy wet snow. The vast majority of accumulations still comes in a 12 hour period even though the storm itself lasts 30 hours. There will probably be a few hour period of accumulation with storm one that produces 1-3" then a long period of light stuff that doesn't accumulate or even melts storm one in between storms, then the 2nd wave produces a much longer and more intense period of heavy snow. So while the overall event is 30 hours, most of the precip falls in 2 6 hour periods which is why I think this has accumulation potential opposed to just 1.25" of LE evenly distributed over 30 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: This is accumulation after the disputed sleet hours so none of wave 1 is included..still a historic event for march That is 24hr. snowfall not accumulation. I share your enthusiasm with this event but I think haswoper is being more realistic with his numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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