Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So mesos and higher res stuff farther N with heaviest stripe cutting across the mason-dixon line and across Chesco, Montco, Bucks, Delco, PHL over into NJ. Globals still generally a tick or 2 south but every run have come ever so slightly farther N. Im confident about this one. NAM, GGEM, RGEMx, GEPS, EPS, Euro vs GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM with the Ukie kind of in the middle. I would take those pairing any day of the week irt a potential significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So mesos and higher res stuff farther N with heaviest stripe cutting across the mason-dixon line and across Chesco, Montco, Bucks, Delco, PHL over into NJ. Globals still generally a tick or 2 south but every run have come ever so slightly farther N. Im confident about this one. NAM, GGEM, RGEMx, GEPS, EPS, Euro vs GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM with the Ukie kind of in the middle. I would take those pairing any day of the week irt a potential significant storm. And this may not be the last threat of the season re: the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yup, 10 skid loaders, 3 cat wheel loaders Lol, yikes. Should be able to do it faster each time with all the practice, looking on the bright side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Here's NBC10's take during their 6pm broadcast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So mesos and higher res stuff farther N with heaviest stripe cutting across the mason-dixon line and across Chesco, Montco, Bucks, Delco, PHL over into NJ. Globals still generally a tick or 2 south but every run have come ever so slightly farther N. Im confident about this one. NAM, GGEM, RGEMx, GEPS, EPS, Euro vs GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM with the Ukie kind of in the middle. I would take those pairing any day of the week irt a potential significant storm.Add the RPM to the NAM grouping. Has 12-16" for all of Bucks. The concensus continues to grow. Eta: SREF just joined the North crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 41 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So mesos and higher res stuff farther N with heaviest stripe cutting across the mason-dixon line and across Chesco, Montco, Bucks, Delco, PHL over into NJ. Globals still generally a tick or 2 south but every run have come ever so slightly farther N. Im confident about this one. NAM, GGEM, RGEMx, GEPS, EPS, Euro vs GFS, GEFS, and NAVGEM with the Ukie kind of in the middle. I would take those pairing any day of the week irt a potential significant storm. Add the RPM to the NAM grouping. Has 12-16" for all of Bucks. The concensus continues to grow. I can't imagine shoveling 12"+ of what will be (?) heavy-heavy slop/stuff snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 hours ago, RedSky said: Everybody to Kamu's house we can all fit seen the big yard in pics Lol - we're all set here (just in case!). FYI the two chaise lounges are facing Northeast for maximum effect if we get some wind . Snow shovels available of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 15 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Lol - we're all set here (just in case!). FYI the two chaise lounges are facing Northeast for maximum effect if we get some wind . Snow shovels available of course. A man prepared! Locked and loaded waiting for the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbsoluteVorticity Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 0z nam 500 is about to make this thing go kaboom at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 16 minutes ago, AbsoluteVorticity said: 0z nam 500 is about to make this thing go kaboom at 48 Sure did and it vaporized all the snow in the explosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 NAM 500mb and 300mb maps are gorgeous.....absolute bomb hugging the coast scenario unfolding there. I focused only on those 2 levels and compared past 3 runs and said wow, surface is going to be SICK! Got to surface maps and spit my drink out LOL. Utter garbage. The surface maps look like they came from some other model somewhere in the universe. They simply dont match up. LP should be crawling up the coast slamming DC-NYC at the very least. Very 1958 look. Instead, ZERO snow in E or SE PA whatsoever this run thru Thursday AM. I call bs on those NAM surface maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: NAM 500mb and 300mb maps are gorgeous.....absolute bomb hugging the coast scenario unfolding there. I focused only on those 2 levels and compared past 3 runs and said wow, surface is going to be SICK! Got to surface maps and spit my drink out LOL. Utter garbage. The surface maps look like they came from some other model somewhere in the universe. They simply dont match up. LP should be crawling up the coast slamming DC-NYC at the very least. Very 1958 look. Instead, ZERO snow in E or SE PA whatsoever this run thru Thursday AM. I call bs on those NAM surface maps. There's a good post in the NYC forum explaining some of what happened - more confluence, worse location of the ULL, more vorticity. But geez, how does a strong low off of the DE coast have nothing on the NW side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 So zilch N of M/D line east of the Apps but nearly 2' in Southern lower elevation VA to the beach areas in late March? I wont say it is wrong but talk about HECS? That is a BECS scenario for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Seriously entertaining start to the Monday 0z suite. Can't wait to see what the goofus come up with in this convoluted setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So zilch N of M/D line east of the Apps but nearly 2' in Southern lower elevation VA to the beach areas in late March? I wont say it is wrong but talk about HECS? That is a BECS scenario for them. True historic storms typically come unexpected, undermodeled, with a path all their own. Lets not be underprepared for this Battleship sinker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Seriously entertaining start to the Monday 0z suite. Can't wait to see what the goofus come up with in this convoluted setup. Watch the GFS spit something out now like the 12z Euro to really mess with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 22 minutes ago, RedSky said: Seriously entertaining start to the Monday 0z suite. Can't wait to see what the goofus come up with in this convoluted setup. Watch the GFS spit something out now like the 12z Euro to really mess with us. I'd call that reassuring! So much jumping around it's hard to define expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 ICON shifted heavier snow axis north into S PA fwiw. We take: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON shifted heavier snow axis north into S PA fwiw. Yep, looking good. At least if I fall asleep now, I'll end on a good note... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 RGEM is about to go nuts past 48 hrs. Shame it doesnt go out further. Look at that setup and going negative tilt already. Well one thing seems clear, wave 2 has some mega potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS shifted N from last run. SECS into SE and E PA. Much better look at H5. Still not quite 'there' but solid timing trends towards the good. NAM just choked on it's own vomit it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Cranky thinks here are too many vorts and such to congeal into a big storm and that does some up 0z guidance https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/975581323866853376/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.americanwx.com%2Fbb%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fcrankywxguy%2Fstatus%2F975581323866853376 "The 0z GFS takes the 87 pieces of energy and turns them into 117 pieces of energy." The antikythera device storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Fwiw the UKMET is in agreement with the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 29 minutes ago, RedSky said: Fwiw the UKMET is in agreement with the GFS Huh??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 ECM is 6-10" SEPA west to east with higher amounts east of I95 - Monmouth jackpot Keep in mind late March and it won't be 10:1 ratios so meh another medium SECS for me this certainly isn't going big to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 ECM is 6-10" SEPA west to east with higher amounts east of I95 - Monmouth jackpot Keep in mind late March and it won't be 10:1 ratios so meh another medium SECS for me this certainly isn't going big to the NW EPS is 12-18" SE PA fwiw with maybe 20" lollis in part of S Chesco and Delco. Thought I saw a max of 26" in NE PA. Total bomb scenario is back in play. Yeah Red, bummer up there where u r......a real letdown smh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 69 news going with c-2" Tues pm thru Wednesday mainly on grass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 69 news going with c-2" Tues pm thru Wednesday mainly on grassEdit that to c-2’ and you have a reasonable estimate. LolSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Hey guys. Looks like another nice storm setting up for us. I been busy with work of course, any idea of start time for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I've never seen so much mass confusion with a storm. No one really has a clue what is going on or what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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