Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Oh and this:PS....hazwoper there r your rates. My BK finally finished the renovation....going for a Sunday whopper with you in mind :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 So we have the nam, gem and icon all showing the closed H5 low and good hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Oh and this: PS....hazwoper there r your rates. My BK finally finished the renovation....going for a Sunday whopper with you in mind :-D Well, still better to have the ICON on our side than not. Does the GFS still have that suppression bias for east coast storms? Because it looks the most south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro keying on the second wave is a good thing, I would think. We would have more potential, even if it scrapes us verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Concensus is growing for a weaker wave 1 that continues to get sheared out underneath us narrowly grazing the mason-dixon line with lighter snows N of there and a relatively sharp dropoff. Trends continue showing the dampening out of that lead s/w once entering the Southern OV. So looks like no North trend with that piece and a weakening s/w.......which is not a bad thing at all irt the second wave on Wednesday. This type of scenario gets the lead energy out of the way allowing for better spacing and keeping the baroclinic zone farther N and closer to the coast. This can be seen on recent GFS, ICON, Euro, CMC, EPS, and GEPS runs with clear trends in placing the 2nd wave of lp stronger, farther N, and nearer the coast. We arent quite there yet verbatim for SE PA (tho there have been a few fantasy snow bomb runs) but a good portion of NJ has consistently started showing as measurable snowfall with decent rates for March. If the trends continue with wave 2, then this could turn into something substantial for many of us in a hurry. We really need to see how wave 1 plays out but wave 2 has and still does show good potential. These are BIG changes from 12-24 hours ago where many (including myself and Iceman) were keying on wave 1 and a N trend. We have moved away from that focus imo and with guidance going the other way, we now should hope they are right squashing and shearing/dampening out that front running energy in hopes of a better setup for wave 2 on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just want to note that the post above is highlighting the potential upside to this and by no means is a trend that is set in stone and will continue. I am intrigued by the changes tho obviously. There are still ways we fail all together one of which is a repeat of the last storm ie the old suppression hooker which skirts us going South then refires just a hair too far S and E on its way up to bombing out for New England. Would be a crud way to wrap up the season (tho some hints we track another close call March 24-26) but many of us shouldnt complain given the AN seasonal snowfall for a chunk of SE PA. Again, we need to see how wave 1 plays out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Just want to note that the post above is highlighting the potential upside to this and by no means is a trend that is set in stone and will continue. I am intrigued by the changes tho obviously. There are still ways we fail all together one of which is a repeat of the last storm ie the old suppression hooker which skirts us going South then refires just a hair too far S and E on its way up to bombing out for New England. Would be a crud way to wrap up the season (tho some hints we track another close call March 24-26) but many of us shouldnt complain given the AN seasonal snowfall for a chunk of SE PA. Again, we need to see how wave 1 plays out first. Just can't help yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Kinda strange looking snow map from ch6/accu-weather for Tues...nothing for Wed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 After wave 1 gets out of here I want to see the confluence to our northeast start easing up to allow for more height rise along the coast. At this point the movement of the heights at H5 north or south is the main thing I have been looking at regarding the 2nd wave's impact on our area. I'm feeling pretty positive right now since there is still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: AS noted by someone else a while ago...06z run is a thing of beauty as well From the Mid Atl forum....this is how we can score btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 12z nam is an absolute crush job for the MA subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 They get their whole winter in late March yuck. I thought this was suppose to come north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: They get their whole winter in late March yuck. I thought this was suppose to come north? Let them have the fun this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, RedSky said: They get their whole winter in late March yuck. I thought this was suppose to come north? They didn't get anything yet and probably won't the way things have been going down there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, wkd said: Let them have the fun this time. Couldn't agree more. If you've been reading their forum/focusing on the east coast in general they've been getting screwed left and right anyway possible. Go snow nuts DC and Balt!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 GGEM was the only NW outlier and it moved south near 100 miles it's over suppression beat us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: GGEM was the only NW outlier and it moved south near 100 miles it's over suppression beat us Nah, things can easily shift north in the next 48 hours. The CMC still has a decent storm for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 ^Pretty sure RedSky is on suicide watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Don't think this will be much at all for this forum. Gut feeling Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 24 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: ^Pretty sure RedSky is on suicide watch... Dude it's spring The 20" GFS had three days ago was nice but i'm over it this was always headed south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Couldn't agree more. If you've been reading their forum/focusing on the east coast in general they've been getting screwed left and right anyway possible. Go snow nuts DC and Balt!!! Funny about reading their forum. LOL. I spend most of my time there. Lots of good analysis and great humor. The Ukie reminds me of the winter storm in 2009-2010? Where I was smoking cirrus while south of me got smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 I'm giving it until tomorrow 12z runs. Euro wasn't too bad with that second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro has a big time LOL run, DC fringed south central SEPA Allentown north it's like 2010 but with a big fu the the lower midatlantic with gradient north and south. KAMU hits it big! **second wave does the damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: Euro has a big time LOL run, DC fringed south central SEPA fringed north. It's like 2010 but with a big fu the the lower midatlantic with gradient north and south. KAMU hits it big! Ends up getting pretty good precip to most of SE PA - must be because of wave 2? Precip pretty paltry to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Yeah the extreme SEPA people will love the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Just now, mattinpa said: Ends up getting pretty good precip to most of SE PA - must be because of wave 2? Precip pretty paltry to start. Yeah i edited second wave north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Only the 12z euro and the long range RGEM get us SEPA peeps kind of need support for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Nice impovement. 0z F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Everybody to Kamu's house we can all fit seen the big yard in pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 Euro extreme SE PA 1'+. Nice run. 2nd wave not even fully developed but trending....plenty of room to amplify. Regarding wave 1 where other guidance has Southern PA fringed.....2 things to note about WAA snows.....1) they almost always start sooner than progged and 2) they come farther N than progged 95% of the time. These are NOT weenie handbook facts btw, the basic synoptic patterns from past history. Keeping it real :-) GEPS are REALLY strong signal now for deep intense coastal low with wave 2 very near the BM area for SE PA and NJ. Wow. great runs so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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