Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 18z GEFS has a MECS look and says Euro is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 ^You'll be bipolar by Tues w/these model runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS takes a different twist.....hits us with a solid thump from wave 1 of mostly all snow in SE PA, then has 3 more strung out followup waves move by off the coast that drop some very light snow in SE PA but more in NJ as boundary is S and E. 500mb setup suggest less strung out so we'll see about it, Im not sold at all on the surface depiction. In a nutshell GFS puts most of the eggs in the 1st wave with the followup stuff being signaled as more suppressed. Another run, more questions than answers. So a quintuple toe loop you say!? Hopefully, the weenies won't deduct points for the dirty landing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GEFS has a MECS look and says Euro is out to lunch. That's the positive take, however one can clearly see there are two camps with the low centers and one of them is off the Carolina's like the euro and the Delmarva huggers skew the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GFS CMC ICON = train wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Curious. Was 58 one wave?? I would try and look it up but Angles Envy says otherwise. Made it to the cabin. Frozen tundra. 3-4tt base outside of plowed areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 GFS CMC ICON = train wreck 1) Neither of those 3 models are trainwrecks unless you were expecting a 4-day train of unrelenting snow and high winds sustained over a single area 2) Energy is just exiting sparse data regions and hitting areas where sampling is better.....we go thru this every threat for a coastal storm 3) There is a VERY clear signal for a SECS+ not too far to our South with our area still on the Northern side of measurable late March snowfall potential 4) There are several different pieces of energy that models are struggling with moving thru the trof irt amplification, spacing, timing, and subsequent impact for our region and this likely wont start to get sorted until model runs sometime Sunday at best 5) Plenty of support and spread among guidance that we cash in on something between Monday PM-Thursday. Will there be several waves/pulses? One wave? A hit here then miss South? Many questions to be answered but all guidance is virtually unanimous that we wont get shutout completely especially irt to Southern and Eastern PA Fact is, its late March we take what we can get. We could very well cash in on front-running WAA thump on Monday PM-Tuesday and miss the rest of the pulses to our South but still get a respectable hit given the time of year. There is also enough data still suggesting this is a 2 or even 3 pulse/wave event and if we strikeout on one we cash in later. There is also data especially among some ens members suggesting still that this could be a prolonged/sustained event for part of the region. One need only look at the ens clustering of lows just off the Mid Atl and S NJ Coast to see this potential. Also note on the map below that while there r 2 clusters (one N near us and one S in the S Mid Atl) the camps look divided or defined by weak sauce lows that remain in the Southern camp and strong bombing lows that are in the Northern camp. That is an eyebrow raiser for me! Lastly, and I know we joke about this, but facts are facts.....did 1996 have us in the bullseye at 96+ hours lead time? How about Jan 2000? Jan 2016? There are many more I could add. What did they have in common around this lead time?? They all showed SECS/MECS signatures but well South generally speaking. Not expecting repeats verbatim but point is, with all the energy in play here, big changes will happen as we draw closer. It would be foolish to say things can only trend better BUT if you keep your expectations in check and hope for the best, you will probably be pleasantly surprised come next week. I like where we sit attm, I truly and honestly do. I would NOT want to be smack in the bullseye and especially would not want this being pegged as an inland runner or rain event. We have wiggle room again now and for late March, believe me, is a VERY good thing. Fasten your seatbelts, this run to the finish line is going to be turbulent as guidance sorts out all these players that are just beginning to come onto the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 I dont hate the 6z NAM one bit. Yes, the NAM at range BUT we have seen numerous times this year where the higher resolution mesos school the globals with these sort of threats. Needless to say, the NAM is the Northern outlier, but IF it has any of the ideas correct between 36-72 hours then it deserves some consideration. I will post the NAM maps and compare with the Euro. They dont agree which is going against the EE rule but more of the point is to show the uncertainties. Now IF the NAM has a handle on less shearing of our lead sw (some call it a bowling ball) and the N track is correct as the 50/50 effect lessens, then not only is round 1 a SECS BUT this also keeps the baroclinic zone farther N for potential 2nd wave development as more energy dives into the trof which would likely yield a formidable 1-2 punch for parts of the region. Something to watch as we move forwards. Now of course if the Euro has the right idea and loses the bowling ball ripping it to shreds, the trof left in its wake is more broad AND the baroclinic zone for development of wave 2 would be well to the S. One other rule I use is the NAVGEM rule, which knowing this is a progressive model that LOVES to shear apart energy and keep it moving along embedded in the flow, when I see this model less sheared than other globals, farther N with rd 1, and less progressive overall, I give the NAVGEM a double-take and eyebrow raise. Like I mentioned earlier, we likely dont get shutout completely. The huge HECS scenarios (which are always overdone anyway on the models imo) have diminished, but to get accumulating legit snow potential in any form late March is kind of a big deal and shouldnt just be glanced over or simply discarded. Top 3 NAM, bottom is Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 1) Neither of those 3 models are trainwrecks unless you were expecting a 4-day train of unrelenting snow and high winds sustained over a single area 2) Energy is just exiting sparse data regions and hitting areas where sampling is better.....we go thru this every threat for a coastal storm 3) There is a VERY clear signal for a SECS+ not too far to our South with our area still on the Northern side of measurable late March snowfall potential 4) There are several different pieces of energy that models are struggling with moving thru the trof irt amplification, spacing, timing, and subsequent impact for our region and this likely wont start to get sorted until model runs sometime Sunday at best 5) Plenty of support and spread among guidance that we cash in on something between Monday PM-Thursday. Will there be several waves/pulses? One wave? A hit here then miss South? Many questions to be answered but all guidance is virtually unanimous that we wont get shutout completely especially irt to Southern and Eastern PA Fact is, its late March we take what we can get. We could very well cash in on front-running WAA thump on Monday PM-Tuesday and miss the rest of the pulses to our South but still get a respectable hit given the time of year. There is also enough data still suggesting this is a 2 or even 3 pulse/wave event and if we strikeout on one we cash in later. There is also data especially among some ens members suggesting still that this could be a prolonged/sustained event for part of the region. One need only look at the ens clustering of lows just off the Mid Atl and S NJ Coast to see this potential. Also note on the map below that while there r 2 clusters (one N near us and one S in the S Mid Atl) the camps look divided or defined by weak sauce lows that remain in the Southern camp and strong bombing lows that are in the Northern camp. That is an eyebrow raiser for me! Lastly, and I know we joke about this, but facts are facts.....did 1996 have us in the bullseye at 96+ hours lead time? How about Jan 2000? Jan 2016? There are many more I could add. What did they have in common around this lead time?? They all showed SECS/MECS signatures but well South generally speaking. Not expecting repeats verbatim but point is, with all the energy in play here, big changes will happen as we draw closer. It would be foolish to say things can only trend better BUT if you keep your expectations in check and hope for the best, you will probably be pleasantly surprised come next week. I like where we sit attm, I truly and honestly do. I would NOT want to be smack in the bullseye and especially would not want this being pegged as an inland runner or rain event. We have wiggle room again now and for late March, believe me, is a VERY good thing. Fasten your seatbelts, this run to the finish line is going to be turbulent as guidance sorts out all these players that are just beginning to come onto the field. Could not have said it any better myself. Still a long long way to go and this will come back north inside 48 hours, it's basically a stone cold lock. As long as we aren't needing like a 200 mile shift north we LL be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Could not have said it any better myself. Still a long long way to go and this will come back north inside 48 hours, it's basically a stone cold lock. As long as we aren't needing like a 200 mile shift north we LL be fine.If rd 1 energy can remain in tact and the 50/50 effects keep lessening while keeping everything upstream looking generally the same, I would sacrifice a farther N low for rain knowing the potential impacts for a rd 2. However, being selective and choosy in late March isnt realistic either, so if it means rd 1 is our best and only shot, then so be it. I will take something early in the period over missing out and hoping rd 2 can deliver and possibly missing both chances (which I dont believe we get shutout this week regardless). I think I echo what your thoughts are irt seeing N adjustments. The rock bottom scenario has likely been shown on the globals and now that energy should be sampled better next 24 hours and with mesos slowly getting in range, we're thinking along the same lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 You guys know I utilize the CRAS at times and here is no exception. Never take this model verbatim BUT it is another higher resolution tool and can spot things or sniff things out 60 hours and under. With that said, I am posting a comparison of the GFS and CRAS 500mb for roughly the same time. You can clearly see how the global GFS is ripping the vorticity ball apart and dampening out the flow while the higher resolution CRAS is saying hang on, Im not going to fade so easily. Again, not basing a forecast off of it but interesting to see on both higher res guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 you guys just got NAM’d, and no discussion? wow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 NAM at range that is trending south each run what is there to discuss. I'm with Ji all or nothing what good is a low end SECS in late March. Long duration event is toast the only win I see is if NAM is right with a strong front runner north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM at range that is trending south each run what is there to discuss. I'm with Ji all or nothing what good is a low end SECS in late March. Long duration event is toast the only win I see is if NAM is right with a strong front runner north. I disagree how is the nam trending south each run. Yes its further south then the overnight 6zrun but if you look back at the 0z run from last night its about the same. So it came north at 6z then back south a little how is that trending south every run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: NAM at range that is trending south each run what is there to discuss. I'm with Ji all or nothing what good is a low end SECS in late March. Long duration event is toast the only win I see is if NAM is right with a strong front runner north. Have you not kept track all season long of how many instances NAM has beat out both GFS and EURO ( and others ) #1 With this springtime airmass in place, #2 models under-predicting the strength of big storms all season long....and #3 a winter time block that doesn’t recognize this is late March and not the beginning of January...it seems like the most correct model at this time. NAM would mean power outages galore for the philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 ^sorry to pile on, just throwing facts out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: Have you not kept track all season long of how many instances NAM has beat out both GFS and EURO ( and others ) #1 With this springtime airmass in place, #2 models under-predicting the strength of big storms all season long....and #3 a winter time block that doesn’t recognize this is late March and not the beginning of January...it seems like the most correct model at this time. NAM would mean power outages galore for the philly area. Hey hope it's right but the NAM beyond 60 hours is not to be relied on. Blocking can suppress any time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Still waiting for my 15" from the NAM from storm #2 at zero hour lead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The CMC moved north not all bad news so far with the GFS south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 The cmc shifted north from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 My brain may explode soon with these model runs....I swear N/S this run then S/N next run. (sure, lots of variables) 00z tonight and tomorrow's runs may/will give more of a hint. Hell all, enjoy your corned beef/ham/cabbage/potatoes/beer/March Madness but just don't puke in my yard.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 South trend officially done at 12z. Euro shifted significantly north and I expect now for the models to continue ticking north up to the event for wave one. We are in a great spot right now. If we we're in the jackpot I would be thinking rain right now but where the euro just shifted and where the gfs is at is honestly where I think we want this at this range. I think we will be very excited by 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: South trend officially done at 12z. Euro shifted significantly north and I expect now for the models to continue ticking north up to the event for wave one. We are in a great spot right now. If we we're in the jackpot I would be thinking rain right now but where the euro just shifted and where the gfs is at is honestly where I think we want this at this range. I think we will be very excited by 12z runs tomorrow. With your record lately I'm not arguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 Much better than the OP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 and waddya know, the place is alive again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sophisticated Skeptic said: and waddya know, the place is alive again.. Snow is in the cooker but the albedo feedback is a fragile system. There is no in-between state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 If this isn’t a heavy rate event the accumulations will be minimal. I am not at all impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 17, 2018 Share Posted March 17, 2018 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: If this isn’t a heavy rate event the accumulations will be minimal. I am not at all impressed Pretty much white rain...need the "somewhat" good rates to fall at night to have any chance. Day accumulations will be torture almost impossible without heavy rates even on lawns. The sun means business this time of year heading into April... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 0z nam looks interesting at H5 for the 2nd wave. Closed low over Tennessee which my help keep the surface low closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 18, 2018 Share Posted March 18, 2018 There have been several good trends shown today on all guidance. Very complex system evolving and I am just walking in from a 14 hour shift so I will just leave this here for the night: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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