JTA66 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Days, most likely just grass/non paved unless intensity builds. It will probably melt even on the grass while it's snowing as well during the day. Nights, better chance of stickage. I keeping my expectations in check. I'll be happy w/a couple inches of plastered lawns/trees/power lines (scenic) and maybe a slushy "something" on paved surfaces. That's how I recall that particular event -- a coating would start to accumulate on the grass, then intensity would drop and snow would melt. A few hours later it would start all over again. Yeah, my expectations are in check, too. To me, anything after March 1 is bonus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I love what the GFS just did, fringed up here by a southern double slider that still pounds Boston. It's an epic screw if there ever was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 18z GFS is a nice look.....HP slightly stronger....anchored in nicely. Some wiggle room. Slow moving system. Pieces are a little out of sync but barely. A SECS but close to a bigger even.....really close. All signs starting to point favorably. Im in my wallet at the train station about to pay up and get my ticket punched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 18z GFS is a nice look.....HP slightly stronger....anchored in nicely. Some wiggle room. Slow moving system. Pieces are a little out of sync but barely. A SECS but close to a bigger even.....really close. All signs starting to point favorably. Im in my wallet at the train station about to pay up and get my ticket punched. Not me I just got the giant royal bustorama a week ago at game time and next weeks storm has as many pieces as the antikythera device Has the feel of a March 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Yes, its time to get excited. The Lehigh Valley just may get more than 3 inches of snow for this event. We have been totally and I mean totally screwed with each one of these Miller B transfer storms as the banding has setup in NJ and SEPA. From 12-18 in forecast to 3 inch snowfalls and all other snow events have melted on the pavement so the accumulations have been on the grass which also has melted in a few days. Those living in eastern Lancaster, Berks and Lehigh Counties have been in the same donut hole since December while the coasts and lower Delaware Valley have been raking it in I am hoping that this event is entirely nocturnal so the sun angle and warm surfaces allows snow accumulation this time. I have only seen the plows used one time and that was just to push slush off the road so it would not freeze. This winter has been the winter from hell IMHO. Every model jumps from 1-18 in of snow, thus every event is a nowcast event. Can any one tell me the last time ahe GFS, Euro and NAM agreed on the same snow amounts? I may have to go back to 1958 (LMAO) to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenVoodooWX Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 JTA66, Hurricane Agnes & Ralph Wiggum, Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Not me I just got the giant royal bustorama a week ago at game time and next weeks storm has as many pieces as the antikythera device Has the feel of a March 2001I will book you a room at a Monmouth County hotel if u r willing to take that sacrifice so the rest of us can get hammered with a SECS/MECS. TIA ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 The biggest concern I have right now is still suppression AND the fact that every system this season has shown SIGNIFICANT adjustments/changes with 48 hours or less to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: The biggest concern I have right now is still suppression AND the fact that every system this season has shown SIGNIFICANT adjustments/changes with 48 hours or less to go. Funny I'm still more worried about the primary trending north with time ruining temps aloft over suppression. Point two of course concerns me as well. Feel a little better that unlike last week the pieces seem more in sync rather than a jumbled mess that comes together too late. Still time for the models to throw an extra shortwave or 2 out of nowhere that screw something up though as we've seen this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: Yes, its time to get excited. The Lehigh Valley just may get more than 3 inches of snow for this event. We have been totally and I mean totally screwed with each one of these Miller B transfer storms as the banding has setup in NJ and SEPA. From 12-18 in forecast to 3 inch snowfalls and all other snow events have melted on the pavement so the accumulations have been on the grass which also has melted in a few days. Those living in eastern Lancaster, Berks and Lehigh Counties have been in the same donut hole since December while the coasts and lower Delaware Valley have been raking it in I am hoping that this event is entirely nocturnal so the sun angle and warm surfaces allows snow accumulation this time. I have only seen the plows used one time and that was just to push slush off the road so it would not freeze. This winter has been the winter from hell IMHO. Every model jumps from 1-18 in of snow, thus every event is a nowcast event. Can any one tell me the last time ahe GFS, Euro and NAM agreed on the same snow amounts? I may have to go back to 1958 (LMAO) to find it. I feel your pain same out here, Id rather a driving rainstorm or sunny weather. rather than watch another plaster job to my East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Albedoman said: Yes, its time to get excited. The Lehigh Valley just may get more than 3 inches of snow for this event. We have been totally and I mean totally screwed with each one of these Miller B transfer storms as the banding has setup in NJ and SEPA. From 12-18 in forecast to 3 inch snowfalls and all other snow events have melted on the pavement so the accumulations have been on the grass which also has melted in a few days. Those living in eastern Lancaster, Berks and Lehigh Counties have been in the same donut hole since December while the coasts and lower Delaware Valley have been raking it in I am hoping that this event is entirely nocturnal so the sun angle and warm surfaces allows snow accumulation this time. I have only seen the plows used one time and that was just to push slush off the road so it would not freeze. This winter has been the winter from hell IMHO. Every model jumps from 1-18 in of snow, thus every event is a nowcast event. Can any one tell me the last time ahe GFS, Euro and NAM agreed on the same snow amounts? I may have to go back to 1958 (LMAO) to find it. I also feel your pain here in Lanc. Co. The Reading, Lancaster and Harrisburg area have been totally screwed this winter. These miller b's and sharp cutoff storms have been wreaking havoc on our area. Whatever happened to the more snow North and West days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 There are many pieces out there in time and distance that the models are still resolving and will be well into the weekend. What I like is the potential, with the 50/50 low slowly easing away, NAO in transition, a high above the Great Lakes blocking any primary from heading that way and helping with a cold air supply, and no vort diving down through there either. For now, ha ha. Those details make for a different setup this time around, especially with respect to potential duration. Let's see how this evolves. What I do know is that I'm enjoying the feeling of potential in the air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 53 minutes ago, Birdbean said: I also feel your pain here in Lanc. Co. The Reading, Lancaster and Harrisburg area have been totally screwed this winter. These miller b's and sharp cutoff storms have been wreaking havoc on our area. Whatever happened to the more snow North and West days? Even here in Royersford I have felt the screw job. That is why I am more excited than usual about a late March snow chance. I admit I am ready for warmth if this hits us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Birdbean said: I also feel your pain here in Lanc. Co. The Reading, Lancaster and Harrisburg area have been totally screwed this winter. These miller b's and sharp cutoff storms have been wreaking havoc on our area. Whatever happened to the more snow North and West days? Here you go western burbs...GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 I think it's going to end up in south Virginia this feels suppressed DT will love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: I think it's going to end up in south Virginia this feels suppressed DT will love it More Euro-ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 This will probably verify.....SE PA and DC screw zones, Monmouth County jackpot. Lock it up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Hilarious run it trends north which should have meant more snow but we get less lol and yes Monmouth hits it big so it could be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 It will be entertaining watching the areas of heavy snow shift around every direction every run the next three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: It will be entertaining watching the areas of heavy snow shift around every direction every run the next three days It’s like spin the wheel - where the snow ends up, nobody knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 0z keeps it going - this op run is a bit of a coastal hugger but definitely something we can work with . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Ensemble families all have a suppressed theme yet their op counterparts are farther N and tucked for the most part. Must be some really sheared/suppressed members skewing the means I would think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 Hilarious run it trends north which should have meant more snow but we get less lol and yes Monmouth hits it big so it could be right HmmmmNot happy to see monmouth in that zone this early. I would have to go digging in order to find past events in my lifetime that had that performance in the second half of March.....or even more precisely the last third.Climo for March 2018 certainly has its own ideas for monmouth.....and it started with storm one at 815am when the heavy rain changed to snow and never looked back.Now having a place in the poconos since 1993.....I can recall the March plastering for that zone.....and its been a while since I had to bring in the bobcat ☃️☃️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 0z keeps it going - this op run is a bit of a coastal hugger but definitely something we can work with . This makes more sense....but “good sense” does not really apply to 3/18.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 GEFS arent horrible. Favors NW and elevated areas as there is clustering tight to the coast like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 It's looking like 2 main waves of precip spread out over 36 hours...timing right now is looking perfect as the heaviest falls mostly tuesday and wednesday nights...but if that changes, snow totals would definitely need to be cut in future maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 imo the closer to the coast solution makes the most sense with the -NAO breaking down...looking like a normal climo event with 95 rain and NW heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS arent horrible. Favors NW and elevated areas as there is clustering tight to the coast like the Euro. The coastal hugger solutions are almost inland runners on the gefs...would easily be all rain for 95 and likely precip issues up to Mt pocono if that happens. A coastal hugger at this time of year is going to have a warm layer shoot all the way to the poconos just like last march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 imo the closer to the coast solution makes the most sense with the -NAO breaking down...looking like a normal climo event with 95 rain and NW heavy wet snow. Agreed. We r running out of wiggle room for our respective areas tho I think there will be some significant changes still over the next 48-60 hours irt evolution of this event. Every system this season has made robust adjustments up until 36-48 hour lead times so I dont see why this would be anu different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 16, 2018 Share Posted March 16, 2018 The coastal hugger solutions are almost inland runners on the gefs...would easily be all rain for 95 and likely precip issues up to Mt pocono if that happens. A coastal hugger at this time of year is going to have a warm layer shoot all the way to the poconos just like last march. That is a crippling snow event verbatim though well N and W and elevated areas. There is your potential March 1958 depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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