The Iceman Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 Just now, mattinpa said: Not familiar with that storm. Does it hit us hard too? Has the all time record for snowfall in state history with 60" and all time snow record for SE PA with 50" in Morgantown. widespread 20-30" for the N and W suburbs 10-20" over 95. Snowed for like 3 days straight in places lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I think this is an improved look at 12z on the GEFS from the 00z GEFS. Notice the lowest heights are south of us as opposed to overtop of us at 00z. I believe ralph said in another thread that we would want that more in S VA/NC...Is that right [mention=4298]Ralph Wiggum[/mention] ? If so this was a good development at least H5 wise.Yes, like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Has the all time record for snowfall in state history with 60" and all time snow record for SE PA with 50" in Morgantown. widespread 20-30" for the N and W suburbs 10-20" over 95. Snowed for like 3 days straight in places lol Cool, thanks again. I learn a lot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yes, like this: this ain't too shabby either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Im at the train station but haven't punched my ticket yet. These late March threats 5+ days out can be fickle. Love NW and elevation areas provided this doesnt keep trending South. Then its a whole nother ballgame :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: 12z euro actually looks like a march 58 redux LOL I will have to check that out in the Kosin book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIIFolesMVP Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, The Iceman said: who is Bernie Rayno? Accuweather.com forecaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIIFolesMVP Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Not familiar with that storm. Does it hit us hard too? http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/march-1958-snowstorm.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, The Iceman said: who is Bernie Rayno? Yep, that's a new one in my book. Never heard of him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 The euro would have us crying a river lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIIFolesMVP Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yep, that's a new one in my book. Never heard of him... Apparently he has been at accuweather for 25 years. Says anything before Thursday into Friday is just meteorological noise. Not saying I agree I am just here to learn from you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 We've seen great trends today across guidance showing a look that we can score with despite it being late march. But it is the Euro that is what is pushing me all in here. Even though it doesn't hit us directly, it is honestly in a position I'd prefer at day 5 with a breaking down -NAO. I would be surprised if suppression is how we lose. But the 12z Euro 50-75 miles further north is essentially the March 58 storm, a long duration heavy wet snow event where N and W gets clobbered and 95 sees a significant event. Now I am not thinking this will see anywhere near the totals seen in that 58 storm but that the potential ripe for a long duration precipitation event. It's still too early for details but I think we go out here with a classic NAO rebound event to end our snow season. I know Ralph is at the station.. but with this likely being our last shot at seeing a significant snowstorm this year, I am firing up the steam engines for this one so ALL ABOARD!! this train has no brakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 The euro would have us crying a river lol So would the NAVGEM. Suppressed look. Guess thats better than the bullseye the ggem shows tho. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Yep, that's a new one in my book. Never heard of him...He is one of the best actually. Been around a while. Doesnt hype, very scientific based forecast. No bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 We've seen great trends today across guidance showing a look that we can score with despite it being late march. But it is the Euro that is what is pushing me all in here. Even though it doesn't hit us directly, it is honestly in a position I'd prefer at day 5 with a breaking down -NAO. I would be surprised if suppression is how we lose. But the 12z Euro 50-75 miles further north is essentially the March 58 storm, a long duration heavy wet snow event where N and W gets clobbered and 95 sees a significant event. Now I am not thinking this will see anywhere near the totals seen in that 58 storm but that the potential ripe for a long duration precipitation event. It's still too early for details but I think we go out here with a classic NAO rebound event to end our snow season. I know Ralph is at the station.. but with this likely being our last shot at seeing a significant snowstorm this year, I am firing up the steam engines for this one so ALL ABOARD!! this train has no brakes Archambault ftw!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Yep, that's a new one in my book. Never heard of him... Bernie is an AccuWeather met who was born and raised in Beaver Meadows (Hazleton) PA. Given his roots, I do believe he has an understanding of the area climatology to be trusted. Like any other met, he can and does bust, but he seems to know his stuff, and isn't big on hype like some of the others at AW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Glenn showing a long duration event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Fwiw JMA is suppressed but snowy here just bullseye S of DC. EPS is ok....many members suppressed. A few really good hits out of the 50 members...many more misses S tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fwiw JMA is suppressed but snowy here just bullseye S of DC. EPS is ok....many members suppressed. A few really good hits out of the 50 members...many more misses S tho. I'd rather see it S now more so than N... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I dont mind the suppressed look for now. Cold air is our problem this time of year....so as always get the cold air first then take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Ninja'd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 What about the sun angle? AHHHHH,,,lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenVoodooWX Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Archambault ftw!!!!! I am a newbie on here and I was wondering what Archambault Event means; as well as the EE Rule? Appreciate the knowledge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 I like Bernie, he's a good met. Doesn't get enough mention on these boards ... that's probably a good thing. Getting back to next week's storm -- I recall a system, maybe March 91? It snowed for something like 3 days straight, but didn't amount to anything because rates were never heavy enough to overcome the March sun. I wonder if this ends up being a similar long duration, strung out system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, GreenVoodooWX said: I am a newbie on here and I was wondering what Archambault Event means; as well as the EE Rule? Appreciate the knowledge! EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true. Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, JTA66 said: EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true. Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.) Dr. Heather Archambault - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/ A copy of her paper is here - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, JTA66 said: I like Bernie, he's a good met. Doesn't get enough mention on these boards ... that's probably a good thing. Getting back to next week's storm -- I recall a system, maybe March 91? It snowed for something like 3 days straight, but didn't amount to anything because rates were never heavy enough to overcome the March sun. I wonder if this ends up being a similar long duration, strung out system? Days, most likely just grass/non paved unless intensity builds. It will probably melt even on the grass while it's snowing as well during the day. Nights, better chance of stickage. I keeping my expectations in check. I'll be happy w/a couple inches of plastered lawns/trees/power lines (scenic) and maybe a slushy "something" on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 21 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: Dr. Heather Archambault - http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/heathera/ A copy of her paper is here - https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1 Heather...lol! (I'm really bad with names.) Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 EE rule = ETA (now the NAM)/Euro. If you get agreement among those two models, you're in good shape, at least once upon a time that was true. Achambault Event = Named after Amy Achembault. She's the met that identified large systems breaking down or setting up pattern regime changes, such as the NAO flipping from negative to positive. (Help me out here gang if any of this is off the mark.)Not sure about her first name but otherwise spot on. Archambault is characterized by a "suppressed" system (thanks to neg nao blocking) which slowly crawls the coastline as the nao block rapidly (relatively speaking) breaks down and flips subsequently to positive. So when timed properly you can get a nice system to develop around say just inside Hatteras then slooooowly meander N/NNE hitting areas with a slow moving noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 15, 2018 Share Posted March 15, 2018 Heather...lol! (I'm really bad with names.) Thanks!!Ninja'd again....need an espresso :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.