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March 20-22nd "Welcome to Spring" MECS/1958 Redux Threat


The Iceman

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3 hours ago, bluehens said:

Why the drastic model cutback at 0z though?  That is what I am wondering. Anybody post 0z Euro output?

The reason for the cutbacks on the models is because 1. They're actually becoming more realistic with qpf. I mean who really thought the 18z NAM yesterday of 18" plus widespread would actually occur? 2. They are no longer taking into account the qpf from the first wave yesterday that was basically all sleet for most of us. Still, a widespread 6-10" storm with lollis of 12+ on March 21 is nothing to feel down about.

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Looks like big hole on radar is filing in a little

Nowcasting now.... Not too impressed with the radar presentation at this stage of the game considering the models last night. The western shield looks pretty decent in central and western pa, though. Perhaps when the low cranks it will improve for eastern pa and nj. Temps are good for me in lehigh valley but pretty warm in philly right now with a sharp gradient for whatever it is worth.


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This one is going to end up going down as one of our more all-time epic busts given what happened with models and NWS predictions early yesterday. 

Radar looks horrible. No sign yet of secondary taking over. Just ragged spinning ULL. We should be seeing signs by now of the coastal taking over. 

Hope I am wrong 

 

 

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Radar shows me well NW of the R/S line, however all I'm seeing is sleet right now. Probably got about an inch of it on the front lawn. Hoping this doesn't turn out like last year's sleetfest, but it's looking very doubtful right now. Mt. Holley also cut back on the totals, which further doesn't inspire confidence for much accumulation today.

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Radar looks horrible. No sign yet of secondary taking over.

 

Radar looks fantastic.....fronto forcing with lifting is starting to occur, secondary is coming together just East of the Delmarva and is evident clearly on radar with WNW moving returns.

 

What specifically do you see on radar that suggests a horrible look? Also, what do you see or not see that suggests no coastal low developing?

 

 

 

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What I see as Agnes pointed out is 2 lows off the coast not spinning together therefore not banding imby-feels like it's blowing right by with way less intensity.

Perhaps later? But must say I am so perplexed with what was shown yesterday (AFTER previous days of inconsistency) now back to this.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/pa/philadelphia/dix/?region=bgm

Radar looking good for you Ralph, not so much for me-still light mix here.  Not impressed, however, working from home so will try hard not to complain!

Enjoy!

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What some didn't take into account was the complex setup taking place today vs recent miller B's, the initial storm formed of Cape Hatty and has taken longer then we have been use to seeing reform over the Virginia Capes being initiated by the huge slow crawling upper low out to the west. It's all pulling together now enjoy the snow.

 

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48 minutes ago, RedSky said:

What some didn't take into account was the complex setup taking place today vs recent miller B's, the initial storm formed of Cape Hatty and has taken longer then we have been use to seeing reform over the Virginia Capes being initiated by the huge slow crawling upper low out to the west. It's all pulling together now enjoy the snow.

 

Yes!  That ULL back over OH is just sitting there and spinning on itself and doesn't want to do a Miller B jump. Meanwhile there are surface lows out just off the coast sortof stalled in place.

 

ua_500-low-03212018.gif

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