RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: All the models still look good to me. I still like a 6-12" storm, which is very good for late March. But all the ramp up talk this afternoon and evening, 10-20" with 25" in some areas possibly, the 12-18" Now i am hearing there will be no CCB and 24 hours of light to mod snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wake up Ralph i need some pep talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, RedSky said: But all the ramp up talk this afternoon and evening, 10-20" with 25" in some areas possibly, the 12-18" Now i am hearing there will be no CCB and 24 hours of light to mod snow lol Should be at least moderate, but I am a little worried we won't see the huge totals. These things all winter have shifted east at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: Wake up Ralph i need some pep talk! Its fine you are still getting at least a foot in your backyard. HREF and HRRR are still at the low end of Mt. Holly's range, Dr. No is still on board and giving us more QPF than the Baby King GFS. Just normal free range Miller B model bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyMPW Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, RedSky said: Wake up Ralph i need some pep talk! Lucy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Totals down big time with the latest model runs. VERY interesting development I must saySent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I feel genuinely awful for the MA crew if the 0z runs are correct they are getting the rug yanked out from under them they were sitting at the table the food was on it's way and yank, i mean it's same old same old to a denizen of upper bucks but i had snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: I feel genuinely awful for the MA crew if the 0z runs are correct they are getting the rug yanked out from under them they were sitting at the table the food was on it's way and yank, i mean it's same old same old to a denizen of upper bucks but i had snow this winter Yes I hope it turns out for us, but I really would feel bad for them. That Euro run just this afternoon gave them 2 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, WoodyMPW said: Lucy! Lucy is an android i figured it out no beating her AI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Yes I hope it turns out for us, but I really would feel bad for them. That Euro run just this afternoon gave them 2 feet! Yeah, that must feel like that triple phaser we lost out on to NYC in 2015. Remember the John Boleris storyline with that one. Ugh, the indignity! Historic East Coast Bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSharp Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 27 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Yes I hope it turns out for us, but I really would feel bad for them. That Euro run just this afternoon gave them 2 feet! Yeah...SE PA has done decent this winter.....Most of the region is a bit above average from a snowy December and the March nor'easters....... DC and Baltimore have gotten the shaft. BWI is at 10 inches for the season and DCA is at 3.7 inches. They are way below average down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Ukie cut qpf almost in half 6-10" tomorrow going by the 0z run consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Ukie cut qpf almost in half 6-10" tomorrow going by the 0z run consensus Ugh I have a pit in my stomach. Went from a model consensus 12-20” to “6-10, Been over 3 years since I recorded a double digit snowfall in the Trenton area; it’s starting to get frustrating. And obviously the MA crew really got screwed. The models really screwed this one. The GFS has the best handle of it and even that was bullish at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Wake up Ralph i need some pep talk! It's March 21 and is going to snow....wow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyMPW Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: It's March 21 and is going to snow....wow!! Exactly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 I feel genuinely awful for the MA crew if the 0z runs are correct they are getting the rug yanked out from under them they were sitting at the table the food was on it's way and yank, i mean it's same old same old to a denizen of upper bucks but i had snow this winter Yep, a foot or so vs a few inches. March 2001 down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian1220 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yep, a foot or so vs a few inches. March 2001 down there? What is your opinion on these last few models? Should we stop looking at the 10+ now in the SEPA area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Ugh I have a pit in my stomach. Went from a model consensus 12-20” to “6-10, Been over 3 years since I recorded a double digit snowfall in the Trenton area; it’s starting to get frustrating. And obviously the MA crew really got screwed. The models really screwed this one. The GFS has the best handle of it and even that was bullish at 18z. ARRGGG......LOL!!!! The storm hasn't even begun yet and you (and others) are making model victory/loss declarations???! For God's sake....let this play out folks!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Euro is jackpotting Penndotguy lol! some funny sheet right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 For what it's worth which is probably the accuracy of a Magic 8 ball Euro is the most generous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6-10" with a Penndotguy lollipop of 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 There is a new hope * cue Star Wars sound track* IBM deep thunder gives us 10-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Precipitation bands developing rapidly overhead.....all sleet. 31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 What is your opinion on these last few models? Should we stop looking at the 10+ now in the SEPA area?Nowcast time. Still getting all sleet with these developing bands does concern me tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Winds starting to roar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 ARRGGG......LOL!!!! The storm hasn't even begun yet and you (and others) are making model victory/loss declarations???! For God's sake....let this play out folks!!!Happens every single storm.....these types of bust posts are inevitable. Nowcast. Like I said tho, models aside as if they didn't exist, looking outside attm and seeing all sleet isnt leaving me with a warm fuzzy feeling but hopefully we can flip over within an hour or so as our coastal is in its infancy stages right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Sleet and a rather toasty 34.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Happens every single storm.....these types of bust posts are inevitable. Nowcast. Like I said tho, models aside as if they didn't exist, looking outside attm and seeing all sleet isnt leaving me with a warm fuzzy feeling but hopefully we can flip over within an hour or so as our coastal is in its infancy stages right now. Rather see them wait and then decide winners/losers post final flakes!!! I think a quick flip is a sure bet as the blossoming ramps up!! Edit: flakes mixing in just now..liking radar for sure!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Why the drastic model cutback at 0z though? That is what I am wondering. Anybody post 0z Euro output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 21, 2018 Share Posted March 21, 2018 Rather see them wait and then decide winners/losers post final flakes!!! I think a quick flip is a sure bet as the blossoming ramps up!! Edit: flakes mixing in just now..liking radar for sure!!Agreed, radar starting to light up. Hrrr has sleet line nosing WNW thru parts of Eastern PA thru next 3-5 hours before collapsing SE fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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