SP Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 it’s a Yogi Berra storm!!Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Man mt Holly going balls to the wall. New map has large area of 12-18". Not sure I agree as seeing widespread foot totals in late March is incredibly rare for here. These guys are the pros though, are way better than me, and have been fantastic with their calls this winter. Hope they continue here. Can't help but have PTSD this morning from last year's March disaster though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Man mt Holly going balls to the wall. New map has large area of 12-18". Not sure I agree as seeing widespread foot totals in late March is incredibly rare for here. These guys are the pros though, are way better than me, and have been fantastic with their calls this winter. Hope they continue here. Can't help but have PTSD this morning from last year's March disaster though... For there forecast sake there probually hoping the 6z NAM was an overcorrection SE. What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Philadelphia Snow said: For there forecast sake there probually hoping the 6z NAM was an overcorrection SE. What do you think? I think the 6z is likely an aberration. Off run nam runs have been trash all year... Not buying it right now. 500 mb looks just about perfect, don't see a huge nw cut off...someone in Lehigh valley will be screwed not upper bucks imo 00z was unanimously all big hits and the 500mb looks so great at this point I'm not sure how we lose save for far n and w. But as last March showed, nothing is a sure thing in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Very bullish map but highlights the potential nicely imo. I don't doubt someone sees at least 18" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 Anything that anybody receives today through tonight should be considered bonus accumulation. Fully expecting to see grass when I awake tomorrow morning. Main show is tomorrow mid morning through afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Woke up, looked at the 6z nams and figured I was out of it. Continued with the other mesos and changed my mind. The models still can't agree on snow totals or jackpot areas. I don't recall seeing such lack of agreement this close in. Definitly turning into a Wednesday storm for us. I don't envy Mt Holly on this one. On to the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 16 minutes ago, wkd said: Woke up, looked at the 6z nams and figured I was out of it. Continued with the other mesos and changed my mind. The models still can't agree on snow totals or jackpot areas. I don't recall seeing such lack of agreement this close in. Definitly turning into a Wednesday storm for us. I don't envy Mt Holly on this one. On to the 12z runs. It's always been a wednesday storm. today and tonight were never suppose to be more than 1-3" sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Fields27 said: Lol @ the 6z nam. Pretty much nada nw of I95. Dare I say it's happening again? Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Can't happen 3 times can it? The machines are rolling out at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Thinking that since it was below freezing here last night, might get some stickage early as long as it comes down at least moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Fwiw NAM coming in like a crusher....better than 6z. RedSky wake up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, penndotguy said: Can't happen 3 times can it? The machines are rolling out at 2pm Fwiw 12z NAM looks better up north again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fwiw NAM coming in like a crusher....better than 6z. RedSky wake up! Lol, ninja'd. Better waking up to the 12z than it was for the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Lol, ninja'd. Better waking up to the 12z than it was for the 6z.Good for Berks/Lehigh valley? 6z scared me. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 37 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Fwiw NAM coming in like a crusher....better than 6z. RedSky wake up! No coffee yet how much 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: No coffee yet how much 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 30 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Good for Berks/Lehigh valley? 6z scared me. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Better than it was, a range of 2" to 6" depending on which NAM, using the snow depth maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Here we go, Mt Holly already dropping amounts out here now 4-7 with areas up to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Here we go, Mt Holly already dropping amounts out here now 4-7 with areas up to 10. Yep, I will enjoy the snow I still have left on my property. Probably will get a little freshening up but big numbers will be to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 latest mt holly map...expecting updates every 6 hours now but they held serve from their early am update...still expecting widespread 1FT+ over much of SE PA and CNJ. With the new NAM, I really don't blame them. It freaking snows until 6z(2 am) Thursday. Would really be an incredible event if true. Unsurprising it printed out stupid high totals for most of SE PA with 2-2.5" of LE. Lehigh valley though still does okay, the 1" precip line is north of Berks. I don't think the precip shield is going to be as compact as it was with that last major event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just started snowing here after about an hour of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: latest mt holly map...expecting updates every 6 hours now but they held serve from their early am update...still expecting widespread 1FT+ over much of SE PA and CNJ. With the new NAM, I really don't blame them. It freaking snows until 6z(2 am) Thursday. Would really be an incredible event if true. Unsurprising it printed out stupid high totals for most of SE PA with 2-2.5" of LE. Lehigh valley though still does okay, the 1" precip line is north of Berks. I don't think the precip shield is going to be as compact as it was with that last major event here. This map is from yesterday afternoon. This is the new one: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Mshaffer526 said: This map is from yesterday afternoon. This is the new one: for some reason the board keeps putting up the older maps... yours doesnt even show up for me. heres just the link https://www.weather.gov/images/phi/winter/StormTotalSnowWeb1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 First observation of the day is wave #1 looks better for our Central and northern regions on radar more NAM like. ECM headed for an early fail it gave up here nothing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 RGEM is a massive hit as well. Not as much precip as the NAM(mostly because the NAM has over double the amount of qpf with the system today, which aint happening) but is 8-12" for all with locally higher amounts. We are about as locked in as one gets on March 20th. The sharp NW cutoff has been cutoff at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Btw how were EPS ensemble looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: First observation of the day is wave #1 looks better for our Central and northern regions on radar more NAM like. ECM headed for an early fail it gave up here nothing today. The NAM really isn't that outragous with wave one TBH it just has such a sharp cutoff that a 25 mile shift in precip makes a big difference. check the 12z NAM and 12z RGEM for wave one...they aren't too different, the NAM is just 25-50 miles further north with the heavier precip. Based on radar right now, I agree it looks more NAM like but you can tell it is hitting a wall coming north. It's taken forever just to get to me. We'll see in the next few hours how much it progresses. We'll know by mid afternoon whether the NAM is right or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsdphilly Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 For some reason I still think these readings are a bit much. Seems like everything has to come together perfectly (not unreasonable for a March 20). If this thing does not time up perfectly or sets up even 50 miles off where it is, totals are going to be very different. I just cant imagine a foot, but I am starting to think it is just to protect me from disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 20, 2018 Author Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: Btw how were EPS ensemble looking? Ensembles pretty much follow the OP inside 48 hours. This is no exception...if anything the mean was maybe a hair NW from the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, The Iceman said: latest mt holly map...expecting updates every 6 hours now but they held serve from their early am update...still expecting widespread 1FT+ over much of SE PA and CNJ. With the new NAM, I really don't blame them. It freaking snows until 6z(2 am) Thursday. Would really be an incredible event if true. Unsurprising it printed out stupid high totals for most of SE PA with 2-2.5" of LE. Lehigh valley though still does okay, the 1" precip line is north of Berks. I don't think the precip shield is going to be as compact as it was with that last major event here. I think that's an older one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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