mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 From the precip maps, round 2 looks very good on the NAM. No huge cutoff N&W. Also looks colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 minute ago, mattinpa said: From the precip maps, round 2 looks very good on the NAM. No huge cutoff N&W. Everything looks good for Rd2 (for the most part)...just need it to pan out and not get screwed. A couple touchy model runs coming up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Hopefully the deform band can trend south. Verbatim only get 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Hopefully the deform band can trend south. Verbatim only get 6 inches Only?! LOL it’s coming on the first day of Spring! Not MET Spring......SPRING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: Hopefully the deform band can trend south. Verbatim only get 6 inches I think we're pretty damn good at this point (hold easy)....DC/Balt may get shafted again. Man, what a damn shiety-screw job winter for them if they don't get something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Their 9pm disco makes mention of the nam and gfs to cut back the 2nd wave qpf quite a bit and focus more on Round one tomorrow suggesting some may be in for a surprise. Would it be something if tomorrow became the big show instead? I really don't think anyone knows how this is going to go down and that isn't a knock on Mt Holly whatsoever but more a function of how complicated of a setup this is. Nothing is a lock with this one bottom line. They may be right but the 12k nam has just about everything happening Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, wkd said: Nice look GFS also wasn't bad although it favored the coastal areas more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 9 minutes ago, wkd said: Nice look Yeah I was admiring that as well :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, mattinpa said: GFS also wasn't bad although it favored the coastal areas more. Hard to tell what the gfs showed between hours 36 and 42 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 10 minutes ago, wkd said: Hard to tell what the gfs showed between hours 36 and 42 though. Yeah it was a weird run. Haven't seen snowfall maps from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Wow quiet in here for right before a big storm. Anyone doing Euro analysis? UKIE appeared to be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Wow quiet in here for right before a big storm. Anyone doing Euro analysis? UKIE appeared to be good. Everyone is probably resting up (like I should be). Doubt if I'll last till the Euro - another hour from now. Lots of uncertainty still with this, but a lot of potential too. Love the 2 part aspect, especially with the 2nd part hopefully finishing strong. For example, HRDPS around sunset on Wednesday : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Wow quiet in here for right before a big storm. Anyone doing Euro analysis? UKIE appeared to be good. I'll post the wxbell snow maps and maybe some comments but no pbp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Made an Obs thread for this baby. 31F here currently, actually up a degree in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Came in a little further south this run. Still a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I'm right under that 17 in Gloucester County. Might be more like 10....but still, crazy numbers this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, wkd said: Came in a little further south this run. Still a nice hit. A little? Cut precipitation substantially to the NW crowd, continues the trend of oh every single storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: A little? Cut precipitation substantially to the NW crowd, continues the trend of oh every single storm But what doesn't continue it is a MA jackpot. l think we see swings into tomorrow. It's still pretty nice unless you are far N&W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, mattinpa said: But what doesn't continue it is a MA jackpot. I still think we see swings into tomorrow. It blows for us .70-.80" total all the dynamics are south and east, throw in 8:1 ratios were getting 5-6" IF it's right, we better hope it isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, RedSky said: It blows for us .70-.80" total all the dynamics are south and east, throw in 8:1 ratios were getting 5-6" IF it's right, we better hope it isn't. Not sure about those ratios as it looks cold. It's not bad for this time of year. NAM is coming into useful range so that and the other hi res models should give a better idea of where things set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, mattinpa said: Not sure about those ratios as it looks cold. It's not bad for this time of year. NAM is coming into useful range so that and the other hi res models should give a better idea of where things set up. Storm #2 on Wednesday has the exact track of March 7th like to a tee exits east from hours 42-48 deathbands stay I95 and east. I hate this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just now, RedSky said: Storm #2 on Wednesday has the exact track of March 7th like to a tee exits east from hours 42-48 deathbands stay I95 and east. I hate this run. I'd like to see the heavy bands, but I won't worry too much yet. I hope the EPS is north of the OP, but I will be in bed by the time that comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Storm #2 on Wednesday has the exact track of March 7th like to a tee exits east from hours 42-48 deathbands stay I95 and east. I hate this run. It blows for us .70-.80" total all the dynamics are south and east, throw in 8:1 ratios were getting 5-6" IF it's right, we better hope it isn't. A little? Cut precipitation substantially to the NW crowd, continues the trend of oh every single storm Dude, it's noise...chill. Here....now get some z's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Dude, it's noise...chill. Here....now get some z's: GFS and ECM have identical storm tracks east from AC that never works for NW peeps. How old is the WRF now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Just upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning here for 8-14" of snow expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Warnings are up for 6-10 here, no mention of sleet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Lol @ the 6z nam. Pretty much nada nw of I95. Dare I say it's happening again? Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 24 minutes ago, Fields27 said: Lol @ the 6z nam. Pretty much nada nw of I95. Dare I say it's happening again? Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk This has been the year of the NW cutoff/last second trends S+E. I think there have been two storms that have shown a nice QPF field into Lancaster/Berks Counties, only for the short-range mesoscales to crap all over it on the cusp of the event. 12z is going to be scary for NW folks, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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