Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, shemATC said: At hour 30, with mostly sleet predicted it has 12" already! obviously not all snow (1.5" qpf in 10 hours), but WOW No question in my mind this thing will have some unexpected "twist". Possisble thundersnow/sleet? ( Jim Cantore- ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Winter Storm Watch up here from tomorrow evening through Wednesday evening for 5-8" of snow w/localized amounts of 12" along with ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wxsim for NW Chester County Pa has 3" to 5" for wave 1 and 6" to 10" for wave 2 for a total of 9" to 15". If this comes to pass we will exceed my preseason snow forecast for NW Chesco of 50"....but as a man wiser than I once said - we do not shovel model output! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Digital fantasy map from this NAM is going to be a Van Gogh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Figures, just have finally been able to see the grass in my yard. Should be interesting to say the least how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, CRB said: Even sadder that Glenn was demoted, yet he is the one with a real BSc in Meteorology (not just a TV Met). He wasn't demoted but he could no longer broadcast the 11pm broadcast...hence, Tammie was named chief Met because he wasn't available. However, it's obvious Glenn is still chief Met overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Digital fantasy map from this NAM is going to be a Van Gogh The funny thing is, I'm a little disappointed in the snow amounts I'm seeing for wave 2 considering Wave 1 got to 12" all on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Oh, there's the bump. This is going to have a lot of people under some VERY high numbers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Verbatim 3-5 inches of sleet for wave 1 on the NAM assuming 3:1 ratios which I think is correct for sleet?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Yeah, I think this might have a lot of people in some trouble if this happens. Even if you disregard the actual snow totals, that's 3" of qpf for the whole storm. Even if you shave 1/3 off of that of liquid, 2" is still going to rack up a lot of problems of some precipitation type. Wonder if it's too late to go buy a generator... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The 18z NAM is garbage....do not buy into it....lots O' white rain after the IP....use 10:1 at your own peril - much closer to reality is 6:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, ChescoPaWxman said: The 18z NAM is garbage....do not buy into it....lots O' white rain after the IP....use 10:1 at your own peril - much closer to reality is 6:1 It's a weenie map I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The map does jackpot Monmouth with a little speck of 24" of snow, so maybe it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 2 minutes ago, shemATC said: The map does jackpot Monmouth with a little speck of 24" of snow, so maybe it is right. only cause I said this for storms 1 2 and 3 snow magnets full power..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is ALL sleet and/or white rain for the first thump Tuesday: This is then the final storm total: For those NW of 95, eliminating the first batch of sleet would yield totals of 5-8" of snow on a 10-1 ratio. Most of that snow falls during the daytime on Wednesday. So if you take into account a ratio probably closer to 8:1 (Unless banding is present) and a late March sun, we could be looking at no where near the 18" that the NAM just printed out. HOWEVER, this is all going based on an off-hour NAM run for crying out loud. As always, follow the NWS for the best forecasts and use the models as a piece of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, Newman said: This is ALL sleet and/or white rain for the first thump Tuesday: This is then the final storm total: For those NW of 95, eliminating the first batch of sleet would yield totals of 5-8" of snow on a 10-1 ratio. Most of that snow falls during the daytime on Wednesday. So if you take into account a ratio probably closer to 8:1 (Unless banding is present) and a late March sun, we could be looking at no where near the 18" that the NAM just printed out. HOWEVER, this is all going based on an off-hour NAM run for crying out loud. As always, follow the NWS for the best forecasts and use the models as a piece of guidance. Thanks Dad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 GFS with the strong Delmarva low and what storm here, looks like yesterdays 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down. I'm wondering if this storm would be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, wkd said: The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down. I'm wondering if this storm would be similar. What I recall was heavy snow becoming very heavy and getting pretty windy until early afternoon - all below freezing with about 10 or 11" of snow, then changing to heavy sleet for about 3 hours. Then it pretty much tapered off by sunset. The trees never had much on them due to the temps and then the wind. (This was in NW Delco btw). Very different scenario this time - although I can imagine dodging a bullet here if tomorrow is light to moderate snow and/or sleet, or even rain, with temps in the mid 30's. I wouldn't think so much would accumulate on trees and wires before falling off, maybe something similar tomorrow night? Then snow Wednesday with temps falling to or below freezing. Like a wet and warm part 1 and a colder snowy part 2, with maybe even decent rates. There are a few other scenarios, and it's kind of wild that both halves of this event are still up in the air (down this way anyway). What I'm rooting for at this point is maximum snowfall, however it gets here. Eta: meant to say maybe even decent ratios for Wednesday, but yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smitty97 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 33 minutes ago, wkd said: The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down. I'm wondering if this storm would be similar. We lost power in Hoboken on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 March 93 was a triple phaser storm, no comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreenVoodooWX Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 56 minutes ago, wkd said: The March 1993 storm was the last I remember with periods of heavy sleet and snow. I got a total accumulation of 10-12". I don't recall losing power of many trees down. I'm wondering if this storm would be similar. I grew up outside of Wilkes-Barre. We had around 30 inches of snow IMBY, and around an average of 5-6 foot drifts. Wind peaked at around 50mph with gusts over 70mph. It snowed like crazy, then, about 2 hours of sleet, followed by 10-12 more inches of snow. You could see grass in some parts of MBY, so, I opened the front door (which had an 8 foot snow drift) and, the snow came piling in! Crazy storm and blizzard. It is my benchmark for snow storms and it got awful cold after the storm left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 It was so nice today! So anxious to see what happens but in my so non professional opinion not seeing historic. It is March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 The 5:23 Mount Holly discussion is an excellent read. We're really fortunate to have such an excellent NWS office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, wkd said: The 5:23 Mount Holly discussion is an excellent read. We're really fortunate to have such an excellent NWS office. yes and it was a team effort!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Already below th forecasted low of 29 at 27.4 and dropping very quickly!Hoping for at least a foot what do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 What's everyone thoughts around coastal Monmouth? Lots of mixing. Last 3 storms had a total of Maybe 2 " all white rain an plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 yes and it was a team effort!!Their 9pm disco makes mention of the nam and gfs to cut back the 2nd wave qpf quite a bit and focus more on Round one tomorrow suggesting some may be in for a surprise. Would it be something if tomorrow became the big show instead? I really don't think anyone knows how this is going to go down and that isn't a knock on Mt Holly whatsoever but more a function of how complicated of a setup this is. Nothing is a lock with this one bottom line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 Worcester, PA Dropped from 41degrees at 6 pm to 30 at 10 PM. clear skies. May not mean much but better than 40 and hoping for snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted March 20, 2018 Share Posted March 20, 2018 I was looking at my Paul Kocin books tonight and I was surprised at the number of mid March storms that are mentioned. I am going to do a more detailed look at the current models and the March 58 models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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