Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 CMC and ukie on board. Lock in the philly area for 6”+ with MECS definitely on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, wkd said: That is 24hr. snowfall not accumulation. I share your enthusiasm with this event but I think haswoper is being more realistic with his numbers. ok here's a 6 hour snowfall where the majority of the precip of this storm falls..11" falling over 6 hours isn't going to have trouble sticking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 What is projected start time for round 2 and the coastal? I have a 8:30am flight out of PHL on Wednesday......don't think it will get off the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I believe approximately 2/3 of our region will see a SECS but the lucky third will get a MECS somewhere mid or low counties, Kamu region west of there or east of the river. Anticipate the now usual 4-6" mash potatoes up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 This is pretty nutty for this time in March....even more crazy/mind numbing, It may be "snow on snow on snow" still have stuff hanging around here...and it 's F'en March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 big area of 18" in 12 hours in storm 2 over burlington co... I think some are seeing 30 hour storm and thinking it is going to be a uniform rate of snow during the entire storm... ignore all of wave 1 which only artificially inflates totals by a few inches anyway... 18" of snow falling in 12 hours is not going to have any issues accumulating and it is that part of the storm which the 1 foot+ potential totals are coming from... a foot of heavy wet snow has far more impact than 2 ft of powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Iceman, I definitely hope you are right. I'm mostly basing my thoughts on the last two storms here. I had a lot of melting initially and compaction during the storms. The storm before last I had 1.75" accumulation with an all day snow. Also I'm a little on edge after losing power for 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Just now, wkd said: Iceman, I definitely hope you are right. I'm mostly basing my thoughts on the last two storms here. I had a lot of melting initially and compaction during the storms. The storm before last I had 1.75" accumulation with an all day snow. Also I'm a little on edge after losing power for 5 days. I was in the same boat and this storm will likely be very similar to the one where we got nailed with hours of thundersnow. It's technically a 30 hour event but anything that falls before the main show moves in is a bonus. The main part of the precip falls in 6 hours like the storm a few weeks ago. I won't be surprised at all if I have nothing on the ground heading into storm 2...I'm actually predicting that. But storm 2 delivering 12" potentially in 6 hours is what the event is to me. That has devastating potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: This is pretty nutty for this time in March....even more crazy/mind numbing, It may be "snow on snow on snow" still have stuff hanging around here...and it 's F'en March! Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter. Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation. Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes. Sun these days is in total torch mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, The Iceman said: big area of 18" in 12 hours in storm 2 over burlington co... I think some are seeing 30 hour storm and thinking it is going to be a uniform rate of snow during the entire storm... ignore all of wave 1 which only artificially inflates totals by a few inches anyway... 18" of snow falling in 12 hours is not going to have any issues accumulating and it is that part of the storm which the 1 foot+ potential totals are coming from... a foot of heavy wet snow has far more impact than 2 ft of powder. Wave 1 is a joke..it's wave 2 plastering people. And add any sort of wind 30-35mph+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Ukie looks real nice for our area. Lot of precip with the 2nd wave but I'm not able to get the precip type panels on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 17 minutes ago, Birdbean said: Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter. Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation. Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes. Sun these days is in total torch mode. Yup just not our year, is like to think different but you can't deny the trends lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Now if the storm unfolds similar to the CMC then it will likely be an underwhelming event for most as it never really brings that massive CCB like the GFS...it's a more uniform 30 hour event...lots of white rain in that scenario...would be like 3-6" imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Uncle Ukie is crazy wet with 25-30mm to State college no other support for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 28 minutes ago, Birdbean said: Another Berks, Lancaster Co. screw job what else is new this winter. Rates will have to be furious during the day for much accumulation. Went outside a few hours ago bundled up as temps in 30's with some wind and ended up shedding clothes. Sun these days is in total torch mode. Yep, I believe in this completely. I swear if I had no shirt on today, I would get "color"...and 2 weeks from now w/trout fishing season starting I'd definitely would get fried a bit ("farmers tan")...it's happened. Anyhow, this is fun...all I want to do is postpone Summer because it sucks besides some thunder bangers (late night preferably) BTW, next Sat-Sun looks like an "event"...SECS? Kidding. I don't know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 7 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Now if the storm unfolds similar to the CMC then it will likely be an underwhelming event for most as it never really brings that massive CCB like the GFS...it's a more uniform 30 hour event...lots of white rain in that scenario...would be like 3-6" imo Confidence level on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Euro with a nasty coastal tuck over the Delmarva and should play out as a nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Many will want to light up a cigar after seeing the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 euro is even better than the GFS...or worse if you enjoy having power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Iceman said: euro is even better than the GFS...or worse if you enjoy having power I was just looking at the maps on another site. Unbelievable difference in Dr. No today. Wave 2 also like GFS with all snow no sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 I think this would fall into MECS territory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Holy Moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 I think this would fall into MECS territory...Wow and it shows some love into PA too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Anybody know how to clear older images. Apparently I can't post any more of them. Out of room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 6 minutes ago, wkd said: Anybody know how to clear older images. Apparently I can't post any more of them. Out of room. check your PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 Closer up. Thanks Iceman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Likely cut off 2-4" from melting/sleet but that is still an extremely significant storm. Would be potentially more power outages than Sandy in our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 My Friend knows nothing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 1 minute ago, The Iceman said: Likely cut off 2-4" from melting/sleet but that is still an extremely significant storm. Would be potentially more power outages than Sandy in our area... Est winds? I'm a big blow guy...weather, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 19, 2018 Share Posted March 19, 2018 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Likely cut off 2-4" from melting/sleet but that is still an extremely significant storm. Would be potentially more power outages than Sandy in our area... Thanks for the good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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