Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

[nrgjeff]

GFS MOS has been more sane than the 2m temps. Now in the heart of summer I trust MOS more. I prefer 2m in changing weather (a real front unlike today) or a significant MCS in the summer. If MOS starts getting beat by 2m, then of course check the latter.

Well this is the mid-range. Still looks like temperatures will ease up a bit around July 20, esp July 23. Might be able to pull off a bearable stretch from then until early August. At that point I can deal with one last push of heat. In August we know fall and football are approaching. Just hope late July verifies. 

[John1122]

I've been going to 7 on 7 events already. I love football and the weather that comes with it. I know we have long stretches of heat, often high heat this time of year and beyond, but it seems easier to deal with after July 4th, if nothing else because the days are getting shorter and shorter was we head into August.

[jaxjagman]

It's looking like the the upper ridge breaks down  a day sooner than what was being shown in earlier runs ,into Sat.The Euro and GFS  both have  a shortwave trough this afternoon for Monday but the Euro looks slightly slower than the GFS.Should see some potential strong storms Monday afternoon and if the Euro were to be right into the evening and early morning hours,for some parts.Mesoscales seem sketchy at this point

[jaxjagman]

Looks like a wash rinse and repeat pattern but some decent signs of even a warmer period into the 1st week of August,it is summer tho and August is hot.But the SOI the last couple days has really warmed up into a more Nina pattern of +13.85 today,this is a rise of around 28 points the last couple days.The weeklies shows even hotter temps with the 850mb of 25c expanding more into the Valley before once again getting batted back down by an Upper level trough.Wouldn't surprise me if it's not right and later on the next few days you see the MJO going back into the COD.Just my speculation and is no forecast.

[nrgjeff]

I agree we'll get another bout of heat and humidity (AN temps) the first of August. Even the late July break does not look like a big break. However it's still there and with more precip. After the early August round of heat, we should be ready to count down to easier temps and football.

[jaxjagman]

On 7/13/2018 at 8:42 AM, nrgjeff said:

I agree we'll get another bout of heat and humidity (AN temps) the first of August. Even the late July break does not look like a big break. However it's still there and with more precip. After the early August round of heat, we should be ready to count down to easier temps and football.

I'm ready for football.Your baseball team is having a bad year and the Braves who were playing good are going through a mid season melt down

[Holston_River_Rambler]

This whole pattern seems so unusual for late July.  At 500mb, it looks like a weird Miller B setup, low dropping in from the NW and then transferring to the coast, but in this case the coastal energy gets sucked back into the upper flow to the north and the parent upper low drops into a position south of the TN Valley. 

Ensembles showing (8-10 days out) a -NAO and a possible Gulf low.  Probably not good for severe weather folks, but hopefully it can bring some more cooling.  Fall's coming and I say gimme rain. 

Longer term, maybe this is evidence of the turning of the tide so to speak on the overall N. Hemisphere pattern? Pretty blocky pattern in across northern Canada right now for what can be the hottest part of summer. Not to say that it won't swing back to warm or hot again, but maybe a sign the ENSO balance is starting to shift. I don't mean to sound like I have some weird theory for this because I don't.  But we have been talking about this transition to El Nino for a while and maybe this is evidence that is finally starting to happen. 

[AMZ8990]

On 7/21/2018 at 6:29 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

This whole pattern seems so unusual for late July.  At 500mb, it looks like a weird Miller B setup, low dropping in from the NW and then transferring to the coast, but in this case the coastal energy gets sucked back into the upper flow to the north and the parent upper low drops into a position south of the TN Valley. 

Ensembles showing (8-10 days out) a -NAO and a possible Gulf low.  Probably not good for severe weather folks, but hopefully it can bring some more cooling.  Fall's coming and I say gimme rain. 

Longer term, maybe this is evidence of the turning of the tide so to speak on the overall N. Hemisphere pattern? Pretty blocky pattern in across northern Canada right now for what can be the hottest part of summer. Not to say that it won't swing back to warm or hot again, but maybe a sign the ENSO balance is starting to shift. I don't mean to sound like I have some weird theory for this because I don't.  But we have been talking about this transition to El Nino for a while and maybe this is evidence that is finally starting to happen. 

We definitely have a great chance at seeing a developing El Niño start to influence our jet stream patterns soon.  I for one think we’re in for cooler temps over the next 2-3 months for the eastern US, with the West (particularly the west coast) getting locked into some heat. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro Weeklies continue to depict a continued "cool down" w a AN temps off the EC(no idea if true) late in the run.  Either way, the Euro Weeklies depict a tolerable late summer pattern in our forum area.  Keep in mind that it is still summer and will still be warm...just not the excessive warmth from a few weeks ago.  Also, very wet pattern shaping up - think Jeff mentioned that in the severe thread.  I am interested to see if we can at least have a seasonal fall and not the scorchers from the Nina patterns of recent years.  Other than that....no huge takeaways other than the northern Rockies have some snow in the mean which is not unusual in September.  Higher elevations above 8,000' see fall very early.   

[jaxjagman]

The Euro is hinting at a upper ridge into the Upper plains with a 594dm into the western Valley and SE into week 1 of August.So we'll see if the HP is stronger than being shown,it shouldn't be nothing more than a transient warm up.Jongdari is fixing to be a  player somewhat by the looks to help break down the heat wave in East Asia.I'm sure they will be happy,there's been some record all time highs hitting around parts of Japan over 106F in Kumaguya,suburb of Toyko.

So far this summer it seems we've been lucky enough to escape the heat,though it's been warm but it's summer time,so what's new

The upper ridge will seemingly get pushed back from East Asia into more Mongolia and drop the heights into Korea and Japan,cool down and also into week 3-4 per CPC and weeklies and as Carver mentioned above, cooler temps into the Valley seemingly upcoming,we'll see

[Carvers Gap]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro Weeklies(tomorrow evening) hold firm w a cooler extended forecast as some of the various operational runs and their ensembles do not have that look, including the 0z Euro ensemble mean.  

[AMZ8990]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

It will be interesting to see if the Euro Weeklies(tomorrow evening) hold firm w a cooler extended forecast as some of the various operational runs and their ensembles do not have that look, including the 0z Euro ensemble mean.  

I think we’re in for a cool down, ensembles have gone back and forth quite a bit similar to what we saw this past winter.  I think the writings on the wall though for a shift.  

[Carvers Gap]

48 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

I think we’re in for a cool down, ensembles have gone back and forth quite a bit similar to what we saw this past winter.  I think the writings on the wall though for a shift.  

The JAMSTEC would support cooler temps as it has been decent the past few years.  But I have seen the Euro Weeklies jump the gun a bit lately.  I will take a look at 12z(operational and ensembles...weeklies roll again tomorrow evening) and see where it goes...if it holds warm, then the Weeklies from Thursday might have the potential to bust for weeks 2-3.  Still, that is a long way out there in terms of reasonable forecasting...so prob safe to stay with the cool down for now while knowing that it might verify a bit warmer than originally advertised.  Right now, just trying to keep myself interested until we get a legit fall pattern showing up on the modeling which is likely at least 4-6 weeks away right now.  Seems like we rarely get early Falls anymore, but I do keep an eye out for them...might be that we have an outside shot at it this year.  

[Carvers Gap]

As an addendum to that last post...the Weeklies at 500 are actually supported by the 0z operational/ensemble.  I missed that.  So, a warm-up during week 2 followed by more "cooler" weather to follow looks legit....GFS at 6z looked warm.  I still think it may verify a bit warmer than shown.  I am good as long as we don't have prolonged AN temps...makes for a brutal August if so.  Last year, August was tolerable.

[AMZ8990]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As an addendum to that last post...the Weeklies at 500 are actually supported by the 0z operational/ensemble.  I missed that.  So, a warm-up during week 2 followed by more "cooler" weather to follow looks legit....GFS at 6z looked warm.  I still think it may verify a bit warmer than shown.  I am good as long as we don't have prolonged AN temps...makes for a brutal August if so.  Last year, August was tolerable.

I’m with you on that, it’s always better to cruise through August rather than sweating buckets everyday.  

[jaxjagman]

Jongdari should be headed towards or into China by mid week,this would pump up the heights in East Asia,not that they aren't already pumped up.We should warm up upcoming,maybe something similar to when Maria hit China?.Still looks like the pattern in East Asia will get broke down in the long range with lower heights than what they've been going through 

[Carvers Gap]

As suspected, the Weeklies warmed during week 2 when compared to the previous forecast and is now in sync w its daily ensemble runs.  The long term (after week two) is for seasonal to slightly BN.  There are some BN temps centered over the lee of the Rockies.  So, the closer one is to that the cooler it is.  Overall, the entire run is ever so slightly warmer.  I should add that the 500 pattern very much favors a stout ridge over AK and a weak ridge over NE or just of the NE coast.  Weak to moderate trough in the center of the country centered between the Apps and Rockies...but closer to the Rockies as earlier mentioned.

[AMZ8990]

Found some interesting stuff in the Mid Atlantic forum yesterday.  Apparently Russia had its first snow if the year this week in Norilsk.  I though that was interesting.  Also, what  do you guys think of CanSIPS and CFSv2 prediction of a big winter for the eastern US with a -NAO/-AO  predicted at this point??  

[John1122]

The -NAO/-AO is going to eventually return for winter, but it's a believe it when I see it thing for me at this point. 

This is the worst time of year for me weather wise, over the heat but knowing it's still got weeks and weeks to go. Fortunately it's not so bad right now. Generally spending a week in late July/August in the upper 70s isn't too bad at all and it looks like I'll be there for the next 5-6 days.

[AMZ8990]

28 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The -NAO/-AO is going to eventually return for winter, but it's a believe it when I see it thing for me at this point. 

This is the worst time of year for me weather wise, over the heat but knowing it's still got weeks and weeks to go. Fortunately it's not so bad right now. Generally spending a week in late July/August in the upper 70s isn't too bad at all and it looks like I'll be there for the next 5-6 days.

It’s been pretty nice on my side if the state this week as well.  Hopefully it continues the rest of the month.  I’m with you on this being a tough time of year weather wise, the leaves changing can’t get here fast enough for me.  

[Carvers Gap]

I have no idea w the -NAO...once we know that pattern has "flipped" to a more favorable regime, then I would feel more comfortable in making a prediction.  LR models are notorious for missing the NAO whether negative or positive.  It can change quickly at times without notice, but the QBO is the best "indicator" that I can find in giving us a hint.  The AMO might also.  I think ENSO will give us the best clue for the winter....it is not without its flaws, but that seems to give us a very good sign.   Right now, if forced, I would roll w Dec(AN slightly), Jan(normal-ish to very slightly AN), and Feb (BN).   Overall, I think the winter is slightly AN w plenty of rainy, dreary timeframes and chances for big snows(not nickel and dimed).  

[Carvers Gap]

MRX w the QPF hammer...

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)...
Little change in the synoptic pattern through the end of the work
week, with the trough expected to remain over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. This synoptic pattern will help keep
heavy rainfall chances over the forecast area until the weekend.
With the location of this trough the winds through most of the
atmosphere will be out of the south/southwest over the forecast
area. This alignment will help keep a continuous supply of Gulf
moisture pumped into the area. Precipitable water values over the
area will near 2 inches which is well above the 90th percentile
for this time of year. This will mean that any storms that form
during the second half of the work week will have abundant
moisture to tap into and can create heavy downpours. While
temperatures are expected to be below normal through the work
week, there will a strong upper level jet over the northeastern
U.S. which puts our area in the right rear of the jet, which is a
favorable region for rising air and widespread rain chances. These
two factors are the main reasoning behind a flash flood watch
that will continue over the Southern Appalachian Mountains through
Thursday night/Friday morning.

Forecast models keep the best synoptic set up and heaviest rainfall
off to our south and east, but locations in the Tennessee Valley
will still likely see widespread showers with some heavy downpours.
By the end of the work week many places could see 1-3 inches of rain
with some locally higher amounts, especially along the mountains.
Lower temperatures with all this rainfall will hopefully keep severe
weather away, and am currently expecting somewhat limited
strong thunderstorm activity with this heavy rainfall.

Trough will eventually break down and ridging will begin to take its
place as we move into the weekend. This will cause a transition to
warmer temperatures and more diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms that are more isolated in coverage.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I was looking at some of the short range models (RGEM/ NAM 12k) and it almost looks like we're under the deformation zone of a coastal heading up through GA with these rains coming up Wed night into Thursday. No idea if it is such meteorologically.  Not sure how/ if the entrance/ exit regions (although I feel the left exit region is mentioned more with a deformation zone) correspond to one of those either. There is some energy and swirling at 850 mb over the next 48 hours from S. GA up through the Carolinas, but most of the energy at 500mb looks like it gets strung out to the south only to swing through piecemeal or stays north.   I guess the reason I'm posting anything, since I'm not really adding much to the discussion on rains, is that looking at N. Hemisphere at 500 mb today, this looks like a somewhat favorable patter (if it was mid January)for snow, at least for some of us, and I am always interested in seeing what set ups can lead that way. 

[AMZ8990]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I have no idea w the -NAO...once we know that pattern has "flipped" to a more favorable regime, then I would feel more comfortable in making a prediction.  LR models are notorious for missing the NAO whether negative or positive.  It can change quickly at times without notice, but the QBO is the best "indicator" that I can find in giving us a hint.  The AMO might also.  I think ENSO will give us the best clue for the winter....it is not without its flaws, but that seems to give us a very good sign.   Right now, if forced, I would roll w Dec(AN slightly), Jan(normal-ish to very slightly AN), and Feb (BN).   Overall, I think the winter is slightly AN w plenty of rainy, dreary timeframes and chances for big snows(not nickel and dimed).  

Great post,  Carver.  There’s definitely a lot of moving parts that go into a good winter.  I’m gonna have to look at the QBO a little more now that you said that.  I think Jax was talking about the QBO in one of his recent posts.  We should get some help for the solar minimum as well.  Although I don’t think it’s fullblown this year.  

[Carvers Gap]

15 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Great post,  Carver.  There’s definitely a lot of moving parts that go into a good winter.  I’m gonna have to look at the QBO a little more now that you said that.  I think Jax was talking about the QBO in one of his recent posts.  We should get some help for the solar minimum as well.  Although I don’t think it’s fullblown this year.  

Well, fortunately I was able to get that post yesterday out before JB posted on WxBell today.  Otherwise, it might have been perceived that I lifted those ideas.  Their analogs for this area match that last post fairly well.  Now, JB does show that the Cansips just goes full bore from December to March w a January thaw embedded.  I am a bigger fan of winter backloaded...been burned too many times by El Nino's(weak or otherwise) taking their time to get going.  I don't know what the Euro Monthlies look like but the Cansips and Jamstec are pretty chilly.  As for the CFSv2, just wait for a day and eventually it will show every scenario possible - just pick the one that you like.  It "seems" to like a cooler Jan/Feb but is substantially warmer than the Jamstec/Cansips combo.  I feel pretty decent(as decent as one can while it is still summer) about that guess.   It is not really rocket science...just riding Nino climatology.  Generally fast starting winters fall in the La Nina category.  Sometimes, if we are fortunate, we can get Nino winters to begin by Christmas.  That said, every year is its own analog...so at times it is a total crapshoot.  I probably ought to drop this post in the Winter thread...will do so next time.  

[nrgjeff]

You should put this in your signature. I love it! For winter I have Dec AN Feb BN and January the transition. Classic El Nino. Euro monthlies come out over the weekend I believe.

21 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

That said, every year is its own analog...so at times it is a total crapshoot. 

Previous few days featured short waves riding through the Southeast trough. Indeed @Holston_River_Rambler each wave had a little quasi deformation zone. Stead rain almost feels like mid-fall.

Back to reality next week and the following. Looks like seasonable (but not crazy) August heat and humidity. One thing it does not look sustained through the two weeks; a shorter few days of showers may visit late next week. Late August is up in the air. MJO forecasts are a mess due to multiple areas of convection in progress.

If West Pac typhoons form, into China is a hot signal here. Recurve through Japan should be a cooler signal here in 7-10 days. Meanwhile the Atlantic looks quiet which is good news.

[Carvers Gap]

45 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

You should put this in your signature. I love it! For winter I have Dec AN Feb BN and January the transition. Classic El Nino. Euro monthlies come out over the weekend I believe.

Previous few days featured short waves riding through the Southeast trough. Indeed @Holston_River_Rambler each wave had a little quasi deformation zone. Stead rain almost feels like mid-fall.

Back to reality next week and the following. Looks like seasonable (but not crazy) August heat and humidity. One thing it does not look sustained through the two weeks; a shorter few days of showers may visit late next week. Late August is up in the air. MJO forecasts are a mess due to multiple areas of convection in progress.

If West Pac typhoons form, into China is a hot signal here. Recurve through Japan should be a cooler signal here in 7-10 days. Meanwhile the Atlantic looks quiet which is good news.

LOL.  I think I borrowed some form of that from @Mr Bob.  If I remember correctly, he has always warned about the pitfalls of analog based forecasts and giving them too much weight.

[jaxjagman]

Invest 94W has no name yet but should have a name around tomorrow i believe.Kelvin Wave in that region is on going so the potential of a strong typhoon seems like a good possibility.High Pressure on the Euro and GFS looks to more or less centered into  the Yellow Sea,so this should keep the storm away from China and for that matter even Korea.Going into China like Jeff mentioned would mean a warm Valley look.One of the differences right now is how the GFS and Euro handle the trough into Japan the next few days.So we'll see what happens.

Believe the weeklies though are picking up on the potential typhoon as it shows a trough in the east with the 850's sub 15c temps around the 17th through out the Valley,this would be much BN temps and should also be a potential for decent cold front  for this time of year,would be typical re-curved typhoon anyways.Also the weeklies were showing a potential warm towards the last week of August Monday,it's not even close today.So maybe the typhoon will play a part in the turning off the heat.

[Carvers Gap]

The evening's Euro Weeklies take us well into September.  They have returned to BN temps which exclude a slightly AN week 3.  The idea that they have now returned to the cooler solutions is probably a good sign if you like seasonal temps.  I have found that when a model reverts back to an older solution, that often it does not like to budge after that - that or it could just be flip flopping.  That solution would likely produce nice fall weather and right on time.   Seems like we have had extended summer during the past few years.  This would be a welcome change and might signal that the ENSO "switch" is indeed having an impact on the SE as the model begins to place BN temps over the Plains, Midwest, and SE(centered just slightly west of the MS river).  I would encourage those of you to check-out John's thread over in the winter speculation thread...I hope we can get this upcoming pattern to continue into winter.  It would appear that this is now a new pattern depicted on the Euro Weeklies simply because there is more precip.  One could argue that it is simply repeating the old pattern as there are AN heights over AK.  Those have persisted intermittently since last winter.  But w the precip staying at normal levels during each successive week...seems like the upcoming ENSO switch is making its presence felt.

[AMZ8990]

Great stuff guys!!  Btw, Vols practice starts today, can’t wait to see JP and company get things rolling with the team.  September 1st can’t get here soon enough!