Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

[nrgjeff]

Looks like the Mid South has a chance to cool off over the weekend. Eastern Tennessee Valley might be stuck under the Bermuda ridge. Mid South has better chances of rain starting midweek. Rest of the Valley still has scattered t-showers. Weekend into early next week could be the East's version of the ring of fire. Unfortunately most of the precip may be north of the Valley. Oh, that puts us in rebuilding heat next week. Yipee!

[tnweathernut]

We. Need. Rain.

Super wet has turned super dry and it hasn't taken long at all for the grass to go from green to brown.  Hoping to hit a scattered storm later this week (the non-severe kind of course)

[nrgjeff]

Severe is perfectly acceptable, but maybe just my opinion. Modest, yet unseasonably strong mid-level flow is forecast in the Mid South late this week into the weekend. Whether it does anything is a different matter. In 2018 probably not. At any rate, yes my grass needs a drink too.

[Carvers Gap]

Less long term cooling in the NW this Weekly's run and fairly significant cooling east of the Mississippi - really the second of the 46 day model.   

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, tnweathernut said:

We. Need. Rain.

Super wet has turned super dry and it hasn't taken long at all for the grass to go from green to brown.  Hoping to hit a scattered storm later this week (the non-severe kind of course)

Yes we do.  With this heat, it does not take long for things to dry out.   Spent about an hour watering the garden and plants and some new grass(just patches).  

[nrgjeff]

My lawn gets tough love, no water. Hopefully the late week rain verifies well or it'll have to be brown until Sept. Catch up watering never works.

Yes the ECMWF weeklies punt the East heat ridge second half of July. Now the CFS is warmer but not hot. I will go with the ECMWF since both were trending less hot (compared to normal). July is still July though. If we can keep heights in check I figure normal or AN rain should result from pop-up showers or even low press from the east/southeast. 

The last 12 months have featured a really dry month sandwiched between otherwise adequate rain a couple times. Hope this is the third, and we get back to normal rain soon. I think so.

[jaxjagman]

Deleted my earlier post by mistake.

Asia shows the heights rising and ridging on going , so it's looking like a potential height rise in the Valley somewhere for possibly the highest temps of the season upcoming

[Carvers Gap]

16 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Deleted my earlier post by mistake.

Asia shows the heights rising and ridging on going , so it's looking like a potential height rise in the Valley somewhere for possibly the highest temps of the season upcoming

Yep.  Fits the Euro Weeklies pretty well.  Looks like seasonal is on the horizon after that - but as a caveat, we all all know how difficult those ridges are to move once established.  I do think Nino limo will "cool" temps back to normal for mid-July to late August.  I always get these mixed up....so w Nino expect a cool fall, warm early winter, cold mid-late w few extremes?

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Yep.  Fits the Euro Weeklies pretty well.  Looks like seasonal is on the horizon after that - but as a caveat, we all all know how difficult those ridges are to move once established.  I do think Nino limo will "cool" temps back to normal for mid-July to late August.  I always get these mixed up....so w Nino expect a cool fall, warm early winter, cold mid-late w few extremes?

Yeah i agree.The MJO is fixing to get into the IO around by the looks the next day or so by the Euro,the GEFS like normal into the IO is doing a funky dance and wants to retrograde the MJO back towards Africa But the Euro shows the MJO slowing down  as it progresses back into the COD,going into the COD isn't a bad thing though,especially when it get's into region 4,stronger MJO into that region,potential SER in July.

For temps upcoming,who knows if it's right,right now.The Euro shows the warmest temps in the TYS area with temps hitting 99 and DP's at 68.8,this would be a heat index of 106 next Saturday

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah i agree.The MJO is fixing to get into the IO around by the looks the next day or so by the Euro,the GEFS like normal into the IO is doing a funky dance and wants to retrograde the MJO back towards Africa But the Euro shows the MJO slowing down  as it progresses back into the COD,going into the COD isn't a bad thing though,especially when it get's into region 4,stronger MJO into that region,potential SER in July.

For temps upcoming,who knows if it's right,right now.The Euro shows the warmest temps in the TYS area with temps hitting 99 and DP's at 68.8,this would be a heat index of 106 next Saturday

Good catch on the heat wave.  I was looking well past that originally - I always search for an early fall though it rarely happens.  The 18z GFS has 102 in southeast KY one week from Tuesday on its grids....Plateau torch!  I am sure folks at 2-3K' will be fine...but that is some serious heat!

[nrgjeff]

Heat is coming. If the ridge can center up North it might not be too awful. At least we might get scattered showers. I want to go to Winnipeg, Canada to cool off and chase storms, lol.

[nrgjeff]

After the Fourth of July heat, hope is seen on both sets of weekly forecasts. When is the last time they agreed? I'm thinking about the first of May, lol!

Charts show a ridge west trough east by July 20. Euro is a little faster at 500 mb, but its surface does not really respond until July 20 also. Normal or even slight BN temps is still fairly hot that time of year. However the 500 mb pattern should allow the Normal to AN precip. 

Non-model or model assisted assisted methods line up. MJO and GLAAM should progress through phases friendly to the weekly forecasts. El Nino is trying. Gotta get through that hot phase Fourth of July week still, Then it looks more seasonable. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I like hope. 

I'm kinda interested to see how this big ridge develops.  As Jeff pointed out earlier and as EPS and GEFS suggest the ridge could be centered north with a weakness at the bottom. Anything that gives a chance of some rain once the ridge develops is good by me. I live in a house built in 1903 (only partially by choice; wife was involved...) and its temps are very responsive to the air temps.

I second Flashes question on GLAAM. I've managed to find MJO sites, but not such luck for GLAAM.  

[nrgjeff]

I usually watch GLAAM from an energy subscription, Storm Vista Models. NCEP CPC does not really include it. Few Twitter users occasionally post but not recently. Mid Atlantic and Northeast Slight Risks put them in a short-term state of mind, lol! 

[Carvers Gap]

@nrgjeff, thanks for the Weeklies comments.  I just looked at the Euro maps.  Seems pretty consistent w the "cool down."  Like you say, even slightly BN during our hottest time of the year is still very warm.  Conversely, if it was winter, I wouldn't fret at all if the temps were slightly AN for January as there would be plenty of cold for snow.  Do you think we are entering a new pattern or just watching the old pattern burn-out?  I can't tell if the Nino is taking hold or if the pattern from last winter is still continuing? It would be nice to see the BN temps trend into fall....

[nrgjeff]

I think we are still cycling the previous pattern. We had dry periods for 3-4 weeks about every 3 months. We have cooler periods also every 3 months. Perhaps late July will be the summer version, still hot but at normal or BN temps. Looks like the atmosphere is still slightly in a Nina state, going by AAM and West Pac convection, but the SSTs are trending Nino. ENSO should respond more fully going into fall. 

 

[jaxjagman]

On 6/5/2018 at 7:48 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Here is a little nugget.  Please take w a huge grain of salt.  The 6/1 run of the CANSIPS model is showing normal to BN temps and heights over the SE next winter.  There you have it.

It hasn't backed down much this month as well.Enso is more "modoki" into fall like the rest of the seasonal's have been showing.Towards Jan though it looks more basinwide,which seasonals show this just as well.Towards spring it looks more west based,but 3.4 is still warm.Late season would be interesting though  into March,with "BN" temps being shown and the  200mb VPA  over the Valley,could be winter or could be a severe sign,just speculation at this point.

[jaxjagman]

See how this plays out.HP off of Japan will steer Maria into the Yellow Sea brushing the China coast possibly then re-curving it back into the west coast  of Korea though weaken her,Maybe just North of Seoul?I wouldn't trust any long range model right now.Plus possibly tropical genesis into the GOM around the mid month

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice MRX discussion this morning for something I'm pretty interested in: T-storms developing and rolling into the eastern valley off the mts. Maybe I don't read these enough in the summer, but usually I think we get just a "higher terrain focus" or something like it for these type of storms, but this AM the forecaster was mentioning things like a "mid-level deformation axis" over the mts. and different steering influences. Really enjoy learning more about any local processes.  Long story short for today, as the forecaster mentioned: 

"In other words, that`s a really long winded way of saying storms
will likely be peppered across the forecast area by this
afternoon, though the scattered nature of the storms precludes
going higher than about a 30-40 percent chance of rain."

Although this person could have just said the above, I'm glad they didn't since I can now look for all the other influences they mentioned.

Education and fun (ok, that's a relative term). We haz em. 

[Carvers Gap]

Wonder if the Euro Weeklies are a blip...they are fairly at odds w the 12z ensemble(I realized they are founded from 0z)?  MUCH cooler in the northwest over the next couple of weeks compared to the 12z ensembles...warmer overall in the East.  Fits w Jeff's analysis that the Nina is hard to shake right now.  It might have jumped the gun a tad on the Nino w previous runs...Like Jeff, I do think the atmosphere will eventually get there.  If we are going to have a decent winter...it needs to get hopping.  But hey, looking like a really good call from Jeff.

[jaxjagman]

23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Wonder if the Euro Weeklies are a blip...they are fairly at odds w the 12z ensemble(I realized they are founded from 0z)?  MUCH cooler in the northwest over the next couple of weeks compared to the 12z ensembles...warmer overall in the East.  Fits w Jeff's analysis that the Nina is hard to shake right now.  It might have jumped the gun a tad on the Nino w previous runs...Like Jeff, I do think the atmosphere will eventually get there.  If we are going to have a decent winter...it needs to get hopping.  But hey, looking like a really good call from Jeff.

Like what the Weeklies show  just past the mid month.Looks like a big warm up.The HP that the Euro has been showing which would have been over Japan which potentially would have re-curved Maria in the Yellow Sea is now being shown much further west bringing Maria into China.With Maria now going into China this will form a ridge(pump up heights) into Korea,Yellow Sea.With the MJO now being shown stronger than most recent days getting out of the COD into 4 now the next couple days,the recent rise in the SOI in the past few days.Believe there are good signals for a good hot spell upcoming.

[jaxjagman]

I dunno,looks like the LR models are to cool to me right now,teleconnections look warm to me into past mid month.Maria is going into China pumping up the heights with though a trough into Mongolia.If you wanna believe the SOI it tanked recently but today took a good spike upwards the last couple days SO this should just be some transient warming spell.But i still believe right now we are headed to some of the warmest temps we've seen all season upcoming.Even the potential big drop in the PNA upcoming would scream HP or ridging for the Valley.Still like what the weeklies last run shows.It's summer time anyways,we do have warm ups..lol

 

7 Jul 2018	1012.36	1011.50	-0.55	-7.36	-2.35
6 Jul 2018	1010.11	1011.90	-16.87	-7.63	-2.24
5 Jul 2018	1009.71	1012.35	-22.10	-6.96	-1.86
4 Jul 2018	1010.04	1012.55	-21.30	-6.18	-1.39
3 Jul 2018	1012.25	1012.75	-8.93	-5.77	-0.92
2 Jul 2018	1014.30	1013.05	1.85	-5.97	-0.63
1 Jul 2018	1015.04	1012.60	9.17	-6.18	-0.37

[jaxjagman]

21 hours ago, *Flash* said:

DT WxRisk posted an interesting NASA soil moisture graphic on his Twitter account. Basically, as hot as this summer has been, it could be a lot worse for most of TN (i.e. 2007, 2012) if not for the above average soil moisture and the evaporative cooling going on at the surface as a result. The UL disturbances flanking weaknesses on our side of the ridge axis + soil moisture content has helped keep temps in reasonable territory as opposed to record territory. The BNA CF6's look bad...but when you get outside the UHI and factor in the uptick in cloud shade, this summer's heat bark as been greater than its bite IMHO.

Parts of the Valley are in a abnormal drought,nothing horrible but abnormal.Some areas especially in our eastern Valley has done quite well with rain.We got our best rains here from the frontal passage recently,believe we got around .50 ".

Euro got warmer last run.Shows a 594dm next Sunday,the savior for Sunday would be low DP 63 with temps 98 for BNA.But,following Sunday the DP's rise and potentially upper 90's with DP hovering into the low 70's,potentially heat advisory criteria.

 

The GEFS shows the next several days the jet up into Mongolia and China with HP over S/Japan,Korea,Yellow Sea,China ,then next weekend or that following Monday HP goes into China.If we don't get lucky enough in the long range to get a frontal passage into the Valley,which it's summer seems possible it won't, we potentially could see a longer warm up.JMO

[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
611 PM CDT Sun Jul 8 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite a bit of cloud cover has stymied temperatures this afternoon.
I don`t believe anyone will reach 90 degrees by the end of the day.
These "cooler" temperatures are making for a bearable day outside. I
also think these sub-90 degree temperatures are keeping convection
at bay, but we are finally seeing a couple of pinhead showers
starting to poke through on radar.  A few showers and thunderstorms
are still likely to wet some spots in Middle TN, but coverage is
going to be limited before the sun goes down.

With basically a rinse-and-repeat summertime forecast for this
package, there are a couple of things that stand out.  First, I`ll
keep mainly a 20-30 PoP each afternoon, but Tuesday may see a little
more coverage as a very weak boundary should push in from the north.
I`ll cap things at 50 PoP for now, but Tuesday does look like the
best shot for more than just scattered thunderstorms. Even with the
increased chances, no shear means convection should remain sub-
severe.

Secondly, the upper ridge over the Great Plains will begin to push
eastward starting Wednesday.  Centered over the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys by the end of the workweek and characterized by daytime
highs increasing each day, Friday should be the warmest of the week.
Mid-90s are looking possible for many with small diurnal
thunderstorm chances, so if you like these "cooler" temperatures
we`re seeing today through Tuesday, get out and enjoy them.  The
heat is coming back by the end of the week.

[nrgjeff]

We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 

Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.

[Windspeed]

We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 
Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.

Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?

[Carvers Gap]

Interesting to see the LR stuff after d7...seems like the Euro really wants to dump "cooler" air into the lee of the northern Rockies while he CMC and GFS push that air substantially further SE.  Not sure what the bias is...but seems the CMC/GFS combo may offer some hope in 8-10 days for a break in the heat.  Right now, pretty easy call is seasonal to just AN...beginning in about 8-10 days.  For now...HOT!

[Stovepipe]

The last several runs of the GFS have shown temps at or near 100 degrees here for Friday.  MRX is going with 90.  That's a pretty significant difference.  Be interesting to see how hot we get.

[nrgjeff]

Thankfully I do not think so. More good news next week looks a touch less insane too.

On 7/9/2018 at 2:06 PM, Windspeed said:

On 7/9/2018 at 8:44 AM, nrgjeff said:

We might have to suffer a few days of a real ridge later this week over the weekend. As noted above, we have been on the periphery up to this point. Rain had been able to work underneath the soft underbelly of the ridge up North. In the wake of Chris (even offshore) heights should build from the Midsouth to the Southeast. 
Funny how the same thing is forecast over in China after Maria slams into Fujian Province. It is still pretty far south, like our Gulf Coast. Probably won't qualify as a recurve for downstream North America weather. Hot Tennessee Valley analysis from Jax above looks valid to me. Hopefully it'll ease up around the 20th.

Do you think we'll see any flirting with thermometer records for portions of the eastern Valley this weekend?

 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

The last several runs of the GFS have shown temps at or near 100 degrees here for Friday.  MRX is going with 90.  That's a pretty significant difference.  Be interesting to see how hot we get.

The GFS definitely has a warm bias when you look at it's temp outputs lately. It's had quote a number of days at 98-101 in the region so far this summer and it seems to run 5-7 degrees too high normally.