Spring/Summer 2018 Mid to Long Term Discussion.

[nrgjeff]

Alex I'll take Convective Feedback for $400. Euro EPS had trended from 4 to 1 or 2 members of 50 showing it. Para EPS has always been 1-2. With a strong Bermuda high one would expect waves coming around. However they probably won't develop. Only chance would be development right close to home in the Gulf, which is just June climo.

As for next week, yes a tropical upper low comes in. It is a Plains chase trip wrecker so I'm a little ticked off about it. After a hot start to the week, northwest side of it, showers and storms should increase each afternoon toward the end of next week. Despite AN April rain and yesterday, it's been dry a couple weeks. We could use the rain.

[jaxjagman]

Nashville is in danger of breaking the record high of 90 today set back in 2016 

[jaxjagman]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro, GFS, and CMC seem pretty optimistic about rainfall next week. I won't be here to enjoy it if it materializes, but give you joy of it, if like me, you feel the pollen needs to be smacked down and I know there are soil moisture concerns for some of your gardens. 

The mystical/ mythical convective feedback? (according to Levi Cowan) hurricane still looms in the long range of the GFS (hey 4 EPS members had it yesterday AM). GFS just won't let it go and if it was a feedback issue, that would make sense.  But, there seems to have been a pattern lately of disturbances rotating around the Atlantic high, so I wonder even if this is a convective feedback issue, there won't be perhaps a more vigorous disturbance roll up from the Gulf in a week and a half to two weeks. 

I took my contacts out last week because of the pollen then stuck them back in during the week-end.Wrong move,i now have an eye infection.This sucks also,nothing worse than something effecting your eyes,your whole body feels it.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Alex I'll take Convective Feedback for $400. Euro EPS had trended from 4 to 1 or 2 members of 50 showing it. Para EPS has always been 1-2. With a strong Bermuda high one would expect waves coming around. However they probably won't develop. Only chance would be development right close to home in the Gulf, which is just June climo.

As for next week, yes a tropical upper low comes in. It is a Plains chase trip wrecker so I'm a little ticked off about it. After a hot start to the week, northwest side of it, showers and storms should increase each afternoon toward the end of next week. Despite AN April rain and yesterday, it's been dry a couple weeks. We could use the rain.

Unfortunately, I may have some travels to the SW FL coast shortly after that time frame...so that ups any chances for tropical activity significantly.  They have a big red tide problem down there from the last wet spell where they dumped nitrogen rich waters into Charlotte Harbor from Lake O.  Some say there is no connection.  I say red tide has existed for hundreds of years...but no way that discharge did not impact that bloom. Basically it is a normal phenomenon on steroids.  That said, folks down there might actually welcome some unsettled weather which would dilute the bloom and churn the waters.  The solution to pollution is dilution, right?  Anyway, as soon as I booked the rental...the GFS cooked up some feedback.  LOL.   I say this because we booked a five day trip into SGI a couple of years ago(in the Panhandle).  We arrived light at night w winds buffeting the car as we crossed - 40 mph gusts.  It rained for three days straight.  We couldn't even use the rental pool due to lightning.  Last summer we went to Maine to experience some cool weather during June - hit 90s w severe storms for two days.  We are going to Yellowstone later this summer...those folks better prepare.

[Carvers Gap]

I can't tell you how much I am looking forward to the rain upcoming mid and late week.  I am really tired of watering the garden, and it is only May!!!  However, I must say that the plants are looking really good, so I need to count my blessings.  But I also have some areas that I have patched w new grass seed(back in March), and that is a pain as well to water.  So, I am REALLY looking forward to at least a temporary change towards a wet pattern.  Sorry for the "Dear Facebook" post....LOL.

[Carvers Gap]

Thanks to @nrgjeff for his summer comments in the observation thread.   I agree.   Definitely hoping that we are leaving the dry pattern.  And you make an interesting point that the dry pattern (that we are hopefully leaving) was a continuation of the winter pattern which had noted dry spells.

And the "Carvers Gap vacation/tropical coefficient" is definitely alive and well...the 0z Euro and CMC are now on board with the GFS for eastern GOM action in the 8-9 day range.  Now, normally I would not buy anything from a model this far out.  However, the GFS had this at like d16.   I absolutely would never buy anything from a model at that range - unless it is a stratospheric warming event that will cause spring to be bitterly cold OR unless it impacts my family vacation.   While it is not a certainty that a TS or hurricane will happen, the likelihood is higher when my crew is making travel plans.

[nrgjeff]

Agree a tropical cyclone (depression/storm) is becoming more likely. Euro Ensemble some members started having it a couple days ago. GFS forecasts 9 out of every 1, lol, but I think it was just too fast. ECMWF does appear to be getting on board.

MJO is going into a phase that would support the solution. While it wrecked my Plains plans, it helps get rain in here. Guess I will settle for chasing rain bands east of tropical lows, lol!

[nrgjeff]

Chattanooga media is starting to hype heavy rain this weekend. I know it is a holiday weekend, but I do not see any reason to forecast more than scattered afternoon thundershowers. What is media doing up in Knoxville? WPC official QPF forecasts are an inch, maybe locally 2 for a five or seven day period. No model is going higher than WPC. Alabama, maybe, could use a heads up ahead of the holiday weekend. Buth yeah I'm ROTFLMFAO about Tenn!!

Let's see a tropical system develop first. Good luck with the wall of shear in the Gulf. A repeat of the last two ULLs is quite possible. Seriously, the tropical scenario is less likely than a garden variety mid-level to upper-level low. I know the Preds are out of the NHL, and the NBA is not March Madness, but the Braves are doing well. Too early before the All-Star break to get excited? So, hype fake weather!

Skeptic that I am, I would not complain about a tropical system ginning up 850 mb winds. Wouldn't it be funny if the best flow regime in late May was in Dixie not the Plains?

[Stovepipe]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Chattanooga media is starting to hype heavy rain this weekend. I know it is a holiday weekend, but I do not see any reason to forecast more than scattered afternoon thundershowers. What is media doing up in Knoxville? WPC official QPF forecasts are an inch, maybe locally 2 for a five or seven day period. No model is going higher than WPC. Alabama, maybe, could use a heads up ahead of the holiday weekend. Buth yeah I'm ROTFLMFAO about Tenn!!

Let's see a tropical system develop first. Good luck with the wall of shear in the Gulf. A repeat of the last two ULLs is quite possible. Seriously, the tropical scenario is less likely than a garden variety mid-level to upper-level low. I know the Preds are out of the NHL, and the NBA is not March Madness, but the Braves are doing well. Too early before the All-Star break to get excited? So, hype fake weather!

Skeptic that I am, I would not complain about a tropical system ginning up 850 mb winds. Wouldn't it be funny if the best flow regime in late May was in Dixie not the Plains?

Well this is encouraging to read.  I'll be camping in the upper Cumberland area for the long weekend and would like to avoid a prolonged rain event.  Afternoon storms would be welcome though!  

[John1122]

I have a graduation to attend Saturday, so rain is almost a guarantee to make the already crowded 2 lane drive even worse. 

[jaxjagman]

IMME keeps the ENSO more neutral though summer and the Valley wet

[nrgjeff]

Looks like it goes for a robust Southwest monsoon too. Usually goes together with a soft underbelly of the summer ridge. I'll go with at/above normal rain this summer in the Valley.

[Carvers Gap]

Maybe a bit more interesting things going on w the weather this week in the forum area.  Thanks to @PowellVolz for the heads up....  This is from MRX.

By Sunday evening, the airmass becomes increasingly
influenced by Alberto which should be nearing the gulf coast, and
thus advecting more of a tropical like airmass across the
southeast. Moving into Monday, current model progs suggest Alberto
sliding inland to the west thanks to the western Atl ridge,
before shifting east toward midweek as said ridge weakens and
another northern stream trough picks up the cyclone. All said, as
usual with these tropical systems, uncertainty is high at this
range. Therefore given the fact that profiles will be increasingly
moist amidst ample heating each day, think relatively high pops
are reasonable. The fcst will highlight mostly chance pops on
Monday, ramping up to widespread likely levels by Wednesday. At
that point uncertainty becomes so high with the ECMWF pushing
Alberto through the OH valley, while the GFS slides the storm just
east of the spine of the Appalachians. Thus, the remainder of the
periods will feature only mid level chances pops, although this
is likely to change. Temperatures through the period will remain
above normal levels.

[Carvers Gap]

As discussed earlier, this might be a weather maker next week if the latest NHC cones is remotely close.  Looks like they are leaning towards the Euro solution as the GFS brings it up the spine of the Apps at 12z.  The 18z GFS now mirrors NHC thinking almost exactly.

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

As discussed earlier, this might be a weather maker next week if the latest NHC cones is remotely close.  Looks like they are leaning towards the Euro solution as the GFS brings it up the spine of the Apps at 12z.  The 18z GFS now mirrors NHC thinking almost exactly.

Shift to the W on the Euro this afternoonThat's a large cone for our area, so there is alot of uncertainty for the Valley for the exact track.

[dwagner88]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Shift to the W on the Euro this afternoonThat's a large cone for our area, so there is alot of uncertainty for the Valley for the exact track.

The western track still keeps the valley on the dirty side of the storm. It will be a rainmaker as long as it doesn’t go to the east of the Apps. 

[jaxjagman]

The cone just got expanded further east,typical no belief in the NAM..lol

 

[Carvers Gap]

How is Alberto treating our middle and west TN forum members?

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

How is Alberto treating our middle and west TN forum members?

We had one good band, got about a half inch out of that.About it other than just a brief shower/light rain at times through out the day

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like sections of I-40 were closed in western NC were closed yesterday and over night due to a mudslide.  This morning it has reopened.  Those folks in western NC have been getting hammered over the past few weeks.  Alberto is heavy rain on top of some already recently heavy amounts.  The Nolichucky and French Broad(that flow through the mtns into NE TN) have been full for weeks.  Just saw a report on WJHL that folks are defying warnings and tubing the Nolichucky.   They have pulled several from the water so far - they being the Erwin swift water rescue team.

[Stovepipe]

I've gotten used to these daily showers and am dreading the next dry stretch that my come next week.  The garden blew up the past 5 days (weeds too but that's ok).  I hope the normal to above normal precip summer pans out.

[Carvers Gap]

Here is a little nugget.  Please take w a huge grain of salt.  The 6/1 run of the CANSIPS model is showing normal to BN temps and heights over the SE next winter.  There you have it.

[nrgjeff]

At least one energy vendor is doing the same thing. Modoki Nino with warm northeast Pac. Who believes that combo? It is too good to be true. Based on Despondent Persistence I figure something will not verify.

[Carvers Gap]

5 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

At least one energy vendor is doing the same thing. Modoki Nino with warm northeast Pac. Who believes that combo? It is too good to be true. Based on Despondent Persistence I figure something will not verify.

At this latitude, house money is always on, “I have a bad feeling about this.”

[John1122]

It was plenty cold this winter, but dry. We are in a pattern for quite a while of 2 warm, 3 cold.  This past winter was year 1 of cold. We will see if the pattern keeps its trend of the last 25 years or so.  Plus we are getting some extra volcanic activity and should be in a minimum solar period.  That said, I got far more snow in the first year of the warm a couple years ago than I did in the frigid January 2018. 

[jaxjagman]

The NMME looks hot in July- August with the Western ridge expanding into the Mid Valley.Modoki  for the Enso.The central and western portions dry out and more wet  and cooler in the east,seems to be the trend right now happening as of late

 

Edit:The weeklies are even hinting at this tonight.

[jaxjagman]

On 6/5/2018 at 7:48 PM, Carvers Gap said:

Here is a little nugget.  Please take w a huge grain of salt.  The 6/1 run of the CANSIPS model is showing normal to BN temps and heights over the SE next winter.  There you have it.

The NMME is slightly warmer Into Jan,but by far no scorcher,not right now anyways.Warm and wet in time for severe fall in Nov.

[jaxjagman]

3-4  week outlook by the CPC looks similar to what to the NMME  and weeklies showed yesterday.There is a decent WWB coming up  W120 and a weaker EWB E120.NMME shows a Modoki look into July,though maybe into  more region 3, SST's +1,looking hot this summer.

[jaxjagman]

Models seem to be keying on Texas for any tropical genesis upcoming,but that could very well change at this point.Euro wants to hint at a ridge building into the Valley  for a couple days in the long range,it shows upper 90's around the Memphis area.Potential typhoon re-curving off Japan in a few days,models will more than likely struggle in the longer range if this were to actually happen

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of an interesting trend on the Weeklies. The Mountains West is cooling-off as is Texas.  Our forum area is warmer(but not terribly so...it is summer after all) w some BN working in later in the time period. Will be interesting to see the Weeklies this evening as they should be settled-in after the seasonal change - meaning a more consistent look from run to run.